The Great Brazil Topic

[RodPresident]

Eduardo Cunha has opened impeachment proceedings against Dilma! Now the House will oficially take on the matter. A special commission will be formed and after that the whole House will decide. If a 2/3 supermajority approves it, Dilma will be provisionally removed from the presidency and the matter will be sent to the Senate for a final decision.

Dilma's goose is cooked.

Cunha is going to be removed from office. And PT is against him. Dilma is very likely to survive. Opposition won't have strength to get 2/3 of votes and Dilma got a massive victory in Congress today.

[Paleobrazilian]

Eduardo Cunha has opened impeachment proceedings against Dilma! Now the House will oficially take on the matter. A special commission will be formed and after that the whole House will decide. If a 2/3 supermajority approves it, Dilma will be provisionally removed from the presidency and the matter will be sent to the Senate for a final decision.

Dilma's goose is cooked.

Cunha is going to be removed from office. And PT is against him. Dilma is very likely to survive. Opposition won't have strength to get 2/3 of votes and Dilma got a massive victory in Congress today.

Dilma only had this "massive victory" because Brazil would have ran into a government shutdown if she didn't - something not even the opposition wanted.

It'll be 1992 all over again. Dilma's abysmal ratings and public pressure will guide the unideological center towards the impeachment. The PMDB is already in favor. Temer is salivating right now. Plus, impeaching Dilma will be a perfect smokescreen for those in fear of the Petrobras scandal. The PT only abandoned Cunha because they'd rather throw Dilma under the bus than hurting the party brand more. The economy will shrink further due to this whole mess and the business sector will fully support the impeachment because Temer should have little trouble guiding some sort of a national unity government until 2018.

There are rumors that the PMDB and the PSDB already sealed an agreement about the after-Dilma. Temer would have full PSDB support and would probably place many high profile Toucans in his cabinet. Then in 2018 Temer would run for Governor of São Paulo, with support from the PSDB. Meanwhile, with the economy recovering and many PT leaders in jail, someone like Aecio Neves or Jose Serra would be in prime position to run for the presidency.

[Paleobrazilian]

Ibovespa's pre-market is up 3%. The US$ price is falling. The financial market wants Dilma out ASAP.

[Simfan34]

The PSDB has held SP since Covas. Would they be willing to give it up? Would the Presidency even be a done deal?

[Paleobrazilian]

The PSDB has held SP since Covas. Would they be willing to give it up?

While they have held SP since 1994, they have no obvious candidate for 2018, as Alckmin is term limited and there's no presumptive nominee. Plus, Alckmin's ratings have dropped sharply over the year. I think they'd be willing to give up SP if they can get something bigger in exchange.

Would the Presidency even be a done deal?

I don't think it would be a done deal, but only Marina Silva seems to be a realistic threat right now. Specially if Lula is in jail or too tarnished to be a serious candidate by 2018.

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

The financial market wants Dilma out ASAP.

Screw financial markets.

[RodPresident]

Eduardo Cunha has opened impeachment proceedings against Dilma! Now the House will oficially take on the matter. A special commission will be formed and after that the whole House will decide. If a 2/3 supermajority approves it, Dilma will be provisionally removed from the presidency and the matter will be sent to the Senate for a final decision.

Dilma's goose is cooked.

Cunha is going to be removed from office. And PT is against him. Dilma is very likely to survive. Opposition won't have strength to get 2/3 of votes and Dilma got a massive victory in Congress today.

Dilma only had this "massive victory" because Brazil would have ran into a government shutdown if she didn't - something not even the opposition wanted.

It'll be 1992 all over again. Dilma's abysmal ratings and public pressure will guide the unideological center towards the impeachment. The PMDB is already in favor. Temer is salivating right now. Plus, impeaching Dilma will be a perfect smokescreen for those in fear of the Petrobras scandal. The PT only abandoned Cunha because they'd rather throw Dilma under the bus than hurting the party brand more. The economy will shrink further due to this whole mess and the business sector will fully support the impeachment because Temer should have little trouble guiding some sort of a national unity government until 2018.

There are rumors that the PMDB and the PSDB already sealed an agreement about the after-Dilma. Temer would have full PSDB support and would probably place many high profile Toucans in his cabinet. Then in 2018 Temer would run for Governor of São Paulo, with support from the PSDB. Meanwhile, with the economy recovering and many PT leaders in jail, someone like Aecio Neves or Jose Serra would be in prime position to run for the presidency.

This is incorrect. If Temer runs for São Paulo Governorship in 2008, if Dilma gets impeached, he would have to resign Presidency to run. And PSDB wouldn't surrender their fortress for any other.

[Paleobrazilian]

Michel Temer just sent a Frank Underwood-like letter to Dilma Rousseff. The letter leaked to the press. Ouch.

Temer won't admit it, but he's obviously on the the impeachment train now. He went on a São Paulo tour over the last few days that included meetings with political, industrial and financial leaders. He said many times over the last few months that Brazil needed a reunification and that someone had to lead this process. He now wants to lead this process. As the President of Brazil.

[RodPresident]

Good news to Brazilian Democracy:
-Supreme Court said that procedures made by Speaker Eduardo Cunha (PMDB-RJ) are illegal and ordered to make a re-vote of Impeachment Commitee, with open vote and a list made by parliamentary leaders.
-Pro-Dilma Leonardo Picciani (PMDB-RJ) got back PMDB Caucus Leadership from pro-Cunha Leonardo Quintão (PMDB-MG).
-Attorney General Rodrigo Janot asked to remove Speaker Eduardo Cunha (PMDB-RJ) from office. After a raid on his home, they found papers to blackmail other congressmen.
-Budget was voted today. Then, Congress will go to recess until February. Minister of Finances Joaquim Levy (non partisan) will resign after a replacement is announced.
-President of the Senate Renan Calheiros (PMDB-AL) is in open war against Vice President Michel Temer (PMDB-SP).
-Yesterday, in all of Brazilian capitals, anti-impeachment protesters (include me) went to street against impeachment, corruption, but against government cuts too.
But, a sad note:
-Judiciary will go to recess. Then Brazil will have more one month of Eduardo Cunha as Speaker.

[seb_pard]

So good to see Cunha fall

[buritobr]

In this week, for the first time, the red shirts demonstrations (anti-impeachment) outnumbered the yellow shirts demonstrations (pro-impeachment). The red demonstration had 55,000 people in São Paulo. The yellow demonstration had 40,000 people.
According to Datafolha poll, 65% of the Brazilians endorse the impeachment. However, the opinion of the people who don't endorse is stronger. In 1992, 75% of the Brazilians endorsed the impeachment of Fernando Collor. However, in 1992, the former Collor supporters of 1989 (business, mass media) endorsed the impeachment. In 2015, the former Dilma supporters of 2014 (labor unions) disapprove Dilma's administration, but do not endorse the impeachment. The whole organized civil society in Brazil endorsed Collor's impeachment in 1992. In 2015, only half the organized civil society is endorsing Dilma's impeachment. Fiesp (the most important business organization from São Paulo) is endorsing the impeachment. OAB (the Brazilian lawyers association endorsed the impeachment in 1992, but not in 2015).
Although Dilma's approval rate is very low, this is not a justification for the impeachment, since Brazil has a presidential, and not a parliamentary system.
On Friday, the Minister of Finance Joaquim Levy, the "Chicago Boy", was fired. The new Minister Nelson Barbosa is more endorsed by the left. Although he is a leftist, Barbosa is a serious keynesian, and not a stupid keynesian, like some Brazilian left-wing economists.

Other news in this week: former president of PSDB Eduardo Azeredo was sentenced to 20 years in prison, because of a scandal that happened in 1998 (use of money from public companies in election campaign) which was very similar with the scandal of the PT in 2005 (although the PT's scandal was bigger because there was vote buying in the Congress, not only money in election campaign). Marcos Valério was the guy who was the bridge for the money between the public companies and the election campaigns in both scandals: the PSDB' scandal of 1998 and the PT' scandal of 2005. He was already sentenced because of the scandal of 2005.

[buritobr]

Datafolha poll for 2018 (very early)

Aécio Neves 26%
Lula da Silva 20%
Marina Silva 19%
Ciro Gomes 6%
Jair Bolsonaro 4%
Luciana Genro 2%
Eduardo Paes 1%
Eduardo Jorge 1%

[buritobr]

Today, Dilma Rousseff completed one year of the second term. So, she completed five years in the office. She overtook Eurico Gaspar Dutra, Juscelino Kubitschek, Ernesto Geisel and José Sarney, who had single five year term. Now, she is the fifth longest ruling president, behind Getúlio Vargas (who rules 15 years as a dictator and 3,5 as a democratic president), Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Lula (who completed two four year term) and Figueiredo (who had a six year single term).

[buritobr]

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/04/americas/former-brazil-president-lula-question/index.html

[RodPresident]

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/04/americas/former-brazil-president-lula-question/index.html

This thing was very unnecessary. If they wanted Lula to give explanations, they'd ask.
Looks a repeat of 1954, when they forced Getulio Vargas to suicide.

[buritobr]

"Marx and Hegel"
The hottest topic today

[Paleobrazilian]

After Sen. Delcidio do Amaral signing a whistleblower agreement, Lula being criminally investigated and charged, the PMDB deciding to leave the government in a few days and 4 million people on the streets yesterday demanding Dilma's exit, it's clear that this government is over.

Goodbye, Dilma.

[DanPrazeres]

Everything is very crazy these days

[RodPresident]

Delcidio plea bargain was very cheap for him. Only a fine of R$ 1,500,000.00 (U$ 400,000.00). And he threw sh**ts at every side. Aécio Neves, Mayor Eduardo Paes and even deceased Bahia oligarch Antonio Carlos Magalhaes. And it's shameful that Zavascki didn't ask for Delcidio's Senate resignation.

[Paleobrazilian]

DILMA WAS WIRETAPPED BY THE FEDS ON A CONVERSATION THAT SHOWS SHE WAS TRYING TO INTERVENE ON THE INVESTIGATIONS RELATED TO LULA.

It's over for her. Truly over.

[jaichind]

Lula takes Cabinet Post as CO'S for Dilma.  This seems to prevent him from being charged with curruption. I think Dilma was Lula COS years ago.

[jaichind]

March 16 (AFP) -- Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff named her predecessor Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva her chief of staff Wednesday, sparing him possible arrest for corruption as she seeks to fend off the crisis rocking Latin America's biggest country.
The two leftists who have led Brazil for the past 13 years are both fighting for their political lives, and news they were teaming up again in the government deeply divided Brazil.
Allies call Lula the only man capable of saving Rousseff's embattled administration, but opponents condemn the fact that ministerial immunity will now protect him from prosecution in ordinary court.
Cabinet ministers can only be tried before the Supreme Court in Brazil.
The appointment is a risky bet for Rousseff, who is battling crises on multiple fronts: an impeachment attempt, a deep recession, mass protests and the fallout of an explosive corruption scandal at state oil giant Petrobras.
Lula was hugely popular when he stepped down five years ago at the height of an economic boom. But he returns to Brasilia with heavy baggage: he has himself been charged with money laundering in a case linked to the Petrobras scandal.
The opposition was quick to slam the appointment.
"Instead of explaining himself and assuming his responsibilities, former president Lula preferred to flee out the back door," said lawmaker Antonio Imbassahy, lower house leader for opposition party PMDB.
"It's a confession of guilt and a slap to society. President Dilma, by appointing him, has become his accomplice," Imbassahy added. "The final chapter in this story will be her impeachment."


Rousseff fired back at the criticism in a press conference.
"Lula's arrival in my government strengthens it and there are people who don't want it to be stronger," she said.
She played up Lula's political acumen and said she would give him "the necessary powers... to help Brazil."
Other opponents warned Lula would be the country's de facto leader.
"The ex-president is launching... his third term and the president is ending her second," said Green Party Senator Alvaro Dias.
Lula, 70, left office with 80 percent popularity ratings and the status of a hero to the left.
During his two terms, he presided over a watershed period of prosperity and social programs that helped lift tens of millions out of Brazilians poverty.
But his legacy is now threatened by charges that he accepted a luxury apartment as a bribe from a company implicated in the Petrobras scandal.
At a deeper level, he faces suspicions among many Brazilians that his entire administration was underpinned by graft.
Lula vigorously denies involvement in the scandal, in which investigators say construction companies conspired with Petrobras execs to overbill the oil giant to the tune of $2 billion, paying huge bribes to politicians and parties along the way.


Rousseff chaired Petrobras during much of the period in question, but does not face charges so far.
The anti-corruption probe now appears to have the president squarely in its sights, though.
In a plea deal published Tuesday, a senator arrested in the case accused Rousseff of trying to buy his silence.
The senator, Delcidio Amaral of the ruling Workers' Party, told investigators that Rousseff contacted him via intermediaries to urge him not to testify.
The president angrily denied the accusation.
Prosecutors have used plea bargains throughout the investigation to implicate a steadily expanding Who's Who politicians and business executives in the spiraling scandal.
The impeachment push against Rousseff is not directly related to the corruption scandal, but has advanced in tandem with it, deepening the crisis engulfing her administration.
The Supreme Court convened Wednesday to rule on the procedures for impeachment to go forward.
Rousseff's enemies in Congress launched the impeachment bid last year, but the high court halted it over procedural issues.
The president is accused of illegally manipulating the government's accounts to boost public spending during her 2014 re-election campaign.
On Sunday, an estimated three million Brazilians flooded the streets in nationwide protests calling for Rousseff's departure.
The president, whose government has ground to a virtual halt over the crisis, also risks being ditched by a key coalition partner, the centrist PMDB, the largest party in Brazil.

[DanPrazeres]

Things are going REALLY crazy these days. CHUPA KEVIN SPACEY

[Paleobrazilian]

The House will install Dilma's impeachment commission in a few moments. 65 representatives will compose it. According to sources a majority of its members are in favor of Dilma's impeachment. This will be decisive for the election of the President and the rapporteur of the commission. If both of them are on the impeachment side, then the works of the commission should be very quick.

[buritobr]

It is frightening what is happening in Brazil

I understand that the people have many motives to be very angry with Dilma's administration. I understand the demonstrations. But the demonstrators should respect the rights of the ones who don't agree with them.

In São Paulo, a man suffered physical violence because he was wearing a red T-shirt.
A girl was hit because when she was walking, a demonstrator asked her to join the protest and carry a Brazilian flag. She refused and said that she didn't agree with the protest. Some demonstrators called her names: communist, "petista".

The military police is under control of the state governments. The governor of São Paulo is Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB), an opponent of Dilma Rousseff. Usually, the riot police of São Paulo is very violent to anti-state government protests. But today, the riot police allowed the anti-Dilma demonstrators to block Avenida Paulista (one of the busiest avenues of São Paulo) because the riot police supports the protest.