The Great Brazil Topic

[jaichind]

What is also interesting is that the ebb and flow of the Brazil equity markets as well as the value of BRL seems to be driven by international investors going in and out depending on the likelihood of  Dilma being out.  The basic idea seems to be that if Dilma is out then the focus of the government can shift to fixing structural problems versus Dilma using fiscal policy to prop up her regime.  Not sure if Dilma  is out it will play out that way but that how the market and mainly international investors are playing.   

[Paleobrazilian]

What is also interesting is that the ebb and flow of the Brazil equity markets as well as the value of BRL seems to be driven by international investors going in and out depending on the likelihood of  Dilma being out.  The basic idea seems to be that if Dilma is out then the focus of the government can shift to fixing structural problems versus Dilma using fiscal policy to prop up her regime.  Not sure if Dilma  is out it will play out that way but that how the market and mainly international investors are playing.   

That's exactly what investors are thinking. The thing is, they believe whoever takes office if/when Dilma is out will NOT run for reelection in 2018, so they believe whoever takes office would be willing to go through unpopular austerity measures to heal Brazil's fiscal policy.

Remember, there's even a chance that both Dilma AND Temer could fall in a few months. If this happens after December 31st 2016, then an indirect election would be triggered in an unicameral session of the Congress. Then, the Congress would probably handpick an "elder statesman" who wouldn't run for reelection in 2018 and who would be willing to go through all necessary measures to repair Brazil's economy. In fact, I've already heard that Nelson Jobim (PMDB/RS) is a name being ventilated for this scenario. Jobim is a former Supreme Court Justice that was also on FHC's, Lula's and Dilma's cabinet. He'd probably tick all the necessary boxes for the job.

[jaichind]

I got back to what I wrote after the 2014 elections

Given what we know about the post-election Brazil and how close this election was, as someone else mentioned here, this will be a Pyrrhic victory.  

I think at this stage everyone in PT must be kicking themselves for not losing the 2014 elections.  If and when Dilma and Lalu get more exposed on what they have done and what they have done just to stay in power and out of jail, PT will not be able to comeback to power in a generation in my view.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How many parties are implicated in major corruption cases at the moment? Is it mainly confined to PT and PDMB. or the PSDB as well?

[Paleobrazilian]

I got back to what I wrote after the 2014 elections

Given what we know about the post-election Brazil and how close this election was, as someone else mentioned here, this will be a Pyrrhic victory.  

I think at this stage everyone in PT must be kicking themselves for not losing the 2014 elections.  If and when Dilma and Lalu get more exposed on what they have done and what they have done just to stay in power and out of jail, PT will not be able to comeback to power in a generation in my view.

Actually, IMHO the facts revealed over the last few days show exactly will Dilma needed so much to win that election. They desperately needed to be shielded from the ongoing criminal investigations. They actually believed they could control the activities of the Federal Police. And that was yet another mistake of them.

They don't care about PT anymore. As Lula reportedly said a few weeks ago, "PT is over". For the left, the true problem is that the whole PT backlash seems to be tarnishing some other left wing parties that could have replaced the PT as Brazil's leading left wing party. PCdoB is pretty much doomed by now, as it was always a satellite for PT. PSOL will also be hurt for this, as they only reinforced the image of being PT's "auxiliary line" (as Aecio Neves said in 2014) over the last months. Meanwhile, PSB has decidedly moved to the center over the last year, and Marina Silva's REDE is also being forced to take a stand which will probably drive her to the center as well. Finally, as you probably realize by now, one of the biggest consequences of this whole mess is that Brazil, a country that swung between the center and the left ever since the military regime ended, has somewhat drifted to the right ever since the 2013 demonstrations. There's now both a fiscalyl conservative, socially liberal right in Brazil (something that never trully existed, a movement that's very strong among millenials and that's embodied by a new party called NOVO) and a socially conservative right that always existed, but has finally organized itself in Congress.

[DC Al Fine]

What is also interesting is that the ebb and flow of the Brazil equity markets as well as the value of BRL seems to be driven by international investors going in and out depending on the likelihood of  Dilma being out.  The basic idea seems to be that if Dilma is out then the focus of the government can shift to fixing structural problems versus Dilma using fiscal policy to prop up her regime.  Not sure if Dilma  is out it will play out that way but that how the market and mainly international investors are playing.   

That's exactly what investors are thinking. The thing is, they believe whoever takes office if/when Dilma is out will NOT run for reelection in 2018, so they believe whoever takes office would be willing to go through unpopular austerity measures to heal Brazil's fiscal policy.

Remember, there's even a chance that both Dilma AND Temer could fall in a few months. If this happens after December 31st 2016, then an indirect election would be triggered in an unicameral session of the Congress. Then, the Congress would probably handpick an "elder statesman" who wouldn't run for reelection in 2018 and who would be willing to go through all necessary measures to repair Brazil's economy. In fact, I've already heard that Nelson Jobim (PMDB/RS) is a name being ventilated for this scenario. Jobim is a former Supreme Court Justice that was also on FHC's, Lula's and Dilma's cabinet. He'd probably tick all the necessary boxes for the job.

What measures would those be?

[Paleobrazilian]

What is also interesting is that the ebb and flow of the Brazil equity markets as well as the value of BRL seems to be driven by international investors going in and out depending on the likelihood of  Dilma being out.  The basic idea seems to be that if Dilma is out then the focus of the government can shift to fixing structural problems versus Dilma using fiscal policy to prop up her regime.  Not sure if Dilma  is out it will play out that way but that how the market and mainly international investors are playing.   

That's exactly what investors are thinking. The thing is, they believe whoever takes office if/when Dilma is out will NOT run for reelection in 2018, so they believe whoever takes office would be willing to go through unpopular austerity measures to heal Brazil's fiscal policy.

Remember, there's even a chance that both Dilma AND Temer could fall in a few months. If this happens after December 31st 2016, then an indirect election would be triggered in an unicameral session of the Congress. Then, the Congress would probably handpick an "elder statesman" who wouldn't run for reelection in 2018 and who would be willing to go through all necessary measures to repair Brazil's economy. In fact, I've already heard that Nelson Jobim (PMDB/RS) is a name being ventilated for this scenario. Jobim is a former Supreme Court Justice that was also on FHC's, Lula's and Dilma's cabinet. He'd probably tick all the necessary boxes for the job.

What measures would those be?

Immediately:

1 - reducing the debt by reducing unnecessary spending, reducing the number of cabinet positions and reducing the number of federal public servants,
2 - reforming the Constitution to reduce mandatory spending (Brazil has a bizarre public spending system where about 90% of all public spending is mandatory and cannot be blocked during a situation of crisis),
3 - cutting down absurd regulations and interventions created by Dilma that made investors flee the country.

With those 3 measures we'd be able to restore confidence and a balanced budget by 2018 IMO. Those should also be enough to bring back the inflation to its targeted rate of 4,5%. On the long term, though, more reforms would be needed, like:

4 - Welfare/pensions reform (the toughest one due to the political implications of this, this is probably the most important one, as Brazil's welfare system has a hole of over 100 billion reais)
5 - Tax reform (very tricky because there's a huge war between the federal government, states governments and local governments about this one)
6 - Government procurement reform (vital to cut down the corruption on the public service)
7 - Privatizations (Brazil has over 100 state owned companies, some of them running huge deficits).

[RodPresident]

What is also interesting is that the ebb and flow of the Brazil equity markets as well as the value of BRL seems to be driven by international investors going in and out depending on the likelihood of  Dilma being out.  The basic idea seems to be that if Dilma is out then the focus of the government can shift to fixing structural problems versus Dilma using fiscal policy to prop up her regime.  Not sure if Dilma  is out it will play out that way but that how the market and mainly international investors are playing.   

That's exactly what investors are thinking. The thing is, they believe whoever takes office if/when Dilma is out will NOT run for reelection in 2018, so they believe whoever takes office would be willing to go through unpopular austerity measures to heal Brazil's fiscal policy.

Remember, there's even a chance that both Dilma AND Temer could fall in a few months. If this happens after December 31st 2016, then an indirect election would be triggered in an unicameral session of the Congress. Then, the Congress would probably handpick an "elder statesman" who wouldn't run for reelection in 2018 and who would be willing to go through all necessary measures to repair Brazil's economy. In fact, I've already heard that Nelson Jobim (PMDB/RS) is a name being ventilated for this scenario. Jobim is a former Supreme Court Justice that was also on FHC's, Lula's and Dilma's cabinet. He'd probably tick all the necessary boxes for the job.

What measures would those be?

Immediately:

1 - reducing the debt by reducing unnecessary spending, reducing the number of cabinet positions and reducing the number of federal public servants,
2 - reforming the Constitution to reduce mandatory spending (Brazil has a bizarre public spending system where about 90% of all public spending is mandatory and cannot be blocked during a situation of crisis),
3 - cutting down absurd regulations and interventions created by Dilma that made investors flee the country.

With those 3 measures we'd be able to restore confidence and a balanced budget by 2018 IMO. Those should also be enough to bring back the inflation to its targeted rate of 4,5%. On the long term, though, more reforms would be needed, like:

4 - Welfare/pensions reform (the toughest one due to the political implications of this, this is probably the most important one, as Brazil's welfare system has a hole of over 100 billion reais)
5 - Tax reform (very tricky because there's a huge war between the federal government, states governments and local governments about this one)
6 - Government procurement reform (vital to cut down the corruption on the public service)
7 - Privatizations (Brazil has over 100 state owned companies, some of them running huge deficits).

Problem is following:
1 - We can reduce debt, but not cutting public services. we can make better use of technology, create better procedures, but not at cost of a public service.
2 - Mandatory spending is a thing that insures that money will go to things that are needed. Things that we can question is quality of expenses. And systems of control failures.
3 - Dilma made this attempt when things were looking good. Energy reform became a failure after water crisis (Brazilian system is made of water-moved power plant)
4 - Welfare reform is needed, but a human welfare reform, that doesn't cut acquired rights. One example. Rural benefits (not Bolsa Familia) are very important means of giving resources to survival in poorer regions. But I don't support military benefits for single daughters who lives as common-law wives or widow benefits for younger wives with a large age gap with their husbands. We need to recognize a system good for a contemporary world.
5 - Tax reform is hardest duty. Nobody will do a tax reform in a federative country that has one state with 20% of people (São Paulo). Small reforms would be viable.
6 - Procurement reform is a good way. Have more independent control procedures, more citizenship acting than conflicts. People doesn't know how things function and then corrupts can act free. And even Audit Court is having problems in Lava Jato.
7 - Sell Petrobras, Eletrobras, BB, Caixa, and etcetera. And then do what? Become hostages of oligopolies, financial markets, stock exchanges. Phone companies were sold, but they are with most problems with Justice. Government is with part of blame, but I doubt that this will change with PSDB.

Free market won't solve Brazilian problems alone, but D-E-M-O-C-R-A-C-Y is best solution. Political reforms will help more to fight corruption than illegal wiretappings, political gossips, censorship of thinking and pro-business reforms. This coup is a coup of corrupts wanting to survive.

[Famous Mortimer]

Who becomes president when Dilma is impeached?

[Paleobrazilian]

Who becomes president when Dilma is impeached?

The Vice President - Michel Temer (PMDB/SP)

[Famous Mortimer]

but the PMDB is also implicated in corruption? Is the VP himself clean? Could they try to impeach him too? Could there be early elections?

[Simfan34]

but the PMDB is also implicated in corruption? Is the VP himself clean? Could they try to impeach him too? Could there be early elections?

I believe the risk was that, if improperly gained funds were found to have been used in the presidential elections, the election results could be declared irregular and invalidated by the Supreme Court, claiming not only Dilma's post but Temer's job as well. If this were to happen-- I think-- before the end of this year, this would trigger a new presidential election, but if  it were to happen afterwards the Congress would be tasked with elected a caretaker to fill out Dilma's term. I could be wrong though-- one of our Brazilian posters can correct me if so.

It'll be interesting to see, after all is said and done, what political future-- if any-- Moro will have, and if this will dovetail with the conservative resurgence Paleobrazilian described (it goes without saying that, while RodPresident makes some good counter-points, PaleoB's policy prescriptions are by and large the right ones).

A "classical liberal" movement could very easily, especially after all that has happened, make "good governance" its watchword; a crusading anti-corruption judge would be a natural leader in that case. I assume the socially conservative movements are at least in large part Protestant (Garotinho, Pastor Everaldo, etc, etc). Where does PSDB fit into all this? I have seen it described  as a "party of the right rather than a right-wing party", but might this enable a more formal shift? Then there is legislative and electoral reform, but that is a whole 'nother issue entirely...

[Paleobrazilian]

but the PMDB is also implicated in corruption? Is the VP himself clean? Could they try to impeach him too? Could there be early elections?

1 - yes, the PMDB is strongly implicated on the Petrobras scandal.

2 - while there's nothing solid against Temer until now, there are many rumours that something against him will emerge soon. Some claim he's strongly connected to a former Petrobras director called Jorge Zelada who's currently arrested on corruption charges.

3 - it's highly likely that Temer will face impeachment proceedings if he takes office, specially if something against him comes up.

4 - if both Dilma and Temer fall before January 1st 2017, a new general election would be triggered in 90 days to elect a stopgap President that would govern until 2018. If they fall after that, the stopgap President would be elect ed through an indirect election that would take place in an unicameral session of Congress.

[Ebsy]

S[Inks] appears to be hitting the fan:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-idUSKCN0WL0OT

A senator accused of involvement in Brazil's biggest corruption scandal said on Saturday President Dilma Rousseff and her predecessor Lula were aware of it and tried to block investigations, as a poll showed support for her impeachment rising.

In an interview with Brazil's best-selling weekly news magazine, Senator Delcidio do Amaral said Rousseff's successful presidential campaigns in 2010 and 2014 were financed with money from the graft scheme.

Amaral was the leader of the ruling Workers' Party (PT) in the Senate and a close Rousseff ally until he was arrested in November on charges of attempting to bribe a former executive of state-run oil company Petrobras in exchange for his silence in the investigation..

He left the party this week after agreeing a plea bargain, one of several deals prosecutors have used to advance their probe.

I don't see how she isn't removed from office, regardless of the truth.

[Famous Mortimer]

I see Ciro Gomes has switched parties yet again, to the PDT. Amusingly, the same party as his Senator ex-wife. Did PROS stop existing?

[Paleobrazilian]

but the PMDB is also implicated in corruption? Is the VP himself clean? Could they try to impeach him too? Could there be early elections?

I believe the risk was that, if improperly gained funds were found to have been used in the presidential elections, the election results could be declared irregular and invalidated by the Supreme Court, claiming not only Dilma's post but Temer's job as well. If this were to happen-- I think-- before the end of this year, this would trigger a new presidential election, but if  it were to happen afterwards the Congress would be tasked with elected a caretaker to fill out Dilma's term. I could be wrong though-- one of our Brazilian posters can correct me if so.

Generally that's correct. The key detail is that, in this case, it would be the Superior Electoral Tribunal that would invalidate the election, not the Supreme Court. This is important because an appeal to the Supreme Court would be possible, even though tricky because a possible violation to the Constitution would be needed to refer the case to the Supreme Court.

I see Ciro Gomes has switched parties yet again, to the PDT. Amusingly, the same party as his Senator ex-wife. Did PROS stop existing?

No, it didn't. Ciro Gomes is the proof of why Brazil's multi-party system is broken. PDT is the seventh party of his political career. Remember, Ciro Gomes himself created PROS when he was unhappy that PSB wouldn't support Dilma's reelection. Then when the PDT offered him the possibility of running for President in 2018, he didn't think twice about making yet another switch.

By the way, here's what Ciro Gomes is up to over the last few weeks:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKCbn4aOhDw

[buritobr]

More pictures of the anti-impeachment red shirts demonstrations which took place in many Brazilian cities on March 18th.
http://www.jornalggn.com.br/noticia/atos-pela-democracia-espalhados-pelo-brasil

Only in the Northeast the red shirts outnumbered the pro impeachment yellow shirts, whose demonstrations took place on March 13th. However, the numbers of red shirts were relevant.

[Famous Mortimer]

Explain what's happening in the Ciro Gomes video?

[DanPrazeres]

Explain what's happening in the Ciro Gomes video?

Someone is protesting in front of Ciro's house insultes Lula, he says "Lula is a sh**t".

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PROS is a random party, he will continue existing because is a good business. Some other politician will "rent" it ant it's fine.

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Well, like I said, things are a bit crazy in here. Almost all the presidential line of succession is contaminated.

[Paleobrazilian]

[RodPresident]

Ciro is a strange kind of politician. He gained fame as able administrator along Tasso Jereissati who remains in PSDB. But Ciro always had a bad temper and an autocratic personality. And he always left parties when he clashed with party barons.
He called Vice President Temer as "Captain of Coup". His brother left Dilma's cabinet after he called Speaker Cunha of "racketeer" and about Congress being made of "300, 400 rackeeters". His campaign strategy is to beat hard in corrupt pragmatic parties like PMDB and promise more left-wing economic policies, to look like as heir of PT.

[DanPrazeres]

And the PMDB got out of the government.

[Paleobrazilian]

Those last days were a bloodbath for the government. The loss of PMDB had been expected for the last few days, but the way it happened today (a unanimous decision from PMDB's national committee) was humiliating for Dilma. All PMDB members working for the Federal Government will have to leave their offices over the next few days. Among those there are 6 Ministers (there were 7 until yesterday, but one of them decided to leave even before the decision from the national committee) and over 500 first, second and third tier officials appointed by Lula/Dilma.

Dilma will try to use those jobs to convince some other parties like PP, PR, PSD, PTB and PTN to remain by her side and vote against the impeachment. However, it's believed that all of those parties will break away from the government sooner or later, as they all face rebellions by their bases - pretty much all of their Congressmen want the impeachment. Plus, they know they could get the same perks from a Temer government without having to deal with Dilma's unpopularity. PMDB's decision will probably pave the way for those others and it won't take long until all of them adopt a position of "independence" from the government (a position that would be a de facto move to the opposition). PSD has already announced their Congressmen are freed to vote on the impeachment as they want, and it's believed at least 70% of them are pro-impeachment.

PMDB's decision is huge because for the last 31 years PMDB was always in government or at least pretty close to it. It has the largest number of Congressmen, the largest number of Senators, the largest number of Governors and the largest number of Mayors. Being such a huge monster of Brazil's politics, it's only natural that the other smaller, non-ideological parties will follow it. Make no mistake. They're not leaving the government because they want to be in opposition. They're leaving the government because they believe they will be the government soon.

Meanwhile, PT hurts more and more each passing day. Over the last weeks the party has lost Mayors from important cities like Jorge Lapas from Osasco and Rodrigo Neves from Niterói. Today it lost Senator Walter Pinheiro. It'll only get worse from now on. No one will want to be on their side on the local elections of October. In the State of São Paulo for example, it's pretty much certain that the party will be decimated.

While all of this is happening, Michel Temer has been very quiet, waiting for what will happen with the government. To avoid being courted by politicians in Brasília, he has spent much of the last few weeks in São Paulo, quietly talking to politicians from all parties, businessmen, etc. A national union government led by Temer is being quickly built by those actors.

As for the impeachment, the proceedings are well under way in the House of Representatives. Discussions and hearings are taking place almost daily. It's believed that the non-binding opinion of the impeachment commission will be read and voted by the commission on April 12th. After that, the rapport should be quickly sent to the floor. According to rumors, the President of the House, Congressman Eduardo Cunha (PMDB/RJ) will submit the opinion to the floor on April 17th. As you'll notice, April 17th will be a Sunday. This day was obviously chosen to provide large demonstrations in favor of the impeachment right before the voting (including demonstrations at Brasília, which should be absolutely gigantic). Also, pretty much all Brazilians will be watching the session on their homes. During the impeachment vote, all Congressmen will be forced to read out loud their vote, so voting against the impeachment will be a huge electoral handicap for whoever does so. Remember, Cunha is a longtime opponent of the government who's been on the impeachment train for long now, so he'll do everything he can to make Dilma's life harder.

IMO, there are about 280-300 solid votes for the impeachment right now, and about 100 solid votes against it. IMO, about 120 votes are in play right now (Brazil's House has 513 Congressmen). The opposition probably needs about half of those uncertain votes to safely cross the threshold of 342 votes needed to open impeachment proceedings and submit the matter to the Senate.

[DC Al Fine]

I see Ciro Gomes has switched parties yet again, to the PDT. Amusingly, the same party as his Senator ex-wife. Did PROS stop existing?

No, it didn't. Ciro Gomes is the proof of why Brazil's multi-party system is broken. PDT is the seventh party of his political career. Remember, Ciro Gomes himself created PROS when he was unhappy that PSB wouldn't support Dilma's reelection. Then when the PDT offered him the possibility of running for President in 2018, he didn't think twice about making yet another switch.

By the way, here's what Ciro Gomes is up to over the last few weeks:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKCbn4aOhDw

Your comment about Brazil's "broken party system" has made me curious. Could you answer these questions:

1) How many of the parties actually have coherent ideologies? Which ones?

2) I kind of get the appeal of PMDB, but why would one vote for one of the smaller non-ideological parties? (Clientelism, individual politicians?

3) How would you (or any of the other Brazilians) change the electoral system to fix the broken system?

[Paleobrazilian]

I see Ciro Gomes has switched parties yet again, to the PDT. Amusingly, the same party as his Senator ex-wife. Did PROS stop existing?

No, it didn't. Ciro Gomes is the proof of why Brazil's multi-party system is broken. PDT is the seventh party of his political career. Remember, Ciro Gomes himself created PROS when he was unhappy that PSB wouldn't support Dilma's reelection. Then when the PDT offered him the possibility of running for President in 2018, he didn't think twice about making yet another switch.

By the way, here's what Ciro Gomes is up to over the last few weeks:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKCbn4aOhDw

Your comment about Brazil's "broken party system" has made me curious. Could you answer these questions:

1) How many of the parties actually have coherent ideologies? Which ones?

2) I kind of get the appeal of PMDB, but why would one vote for one of the smaller non-ideological parties? (Clientelism, individual politicians?

3) How would you (or any of the other Brazilians) change the electoral system to fix the broken system?

1- there are 35 parties in Brazil. 25 of them are represented in Congress. That said:

a) Among those represented in Congress:

I'd say PT, PCdoB and PSOL are the only ones with well defined ideologies. PT may have taken some "pragmatic" measures in power, but it's still a left wing party and it's base has actually drifted further to the left as the political crisis got worse. The same could be said about PCdoB, which is a satellite of PT that's a bit further to the left than PT. Finally, PSOL has a solid, uniform hard left platform.

PDT is an interesting case. It has a well defined left wing and is strongly connected to the labor cause and the inheritance of one of the most important politicians in Brazil on the second half of the 20th century - Leonel Brizola. However, over the last 14 years, the party was forced to take some choices that could be seen as a betrayal of their former values. Anyway, IMO, the party moved back to the left over the last few months, as many center leaning politicians left the party over the last months (like Senators Cristovam Buarque and Reguffe and Mato Grosso's Governor Pedro Taques). Remember, PDT was the party where Dilma's political career started and she always had a good relationship with them. So, I guess you could call PDT an ideological party.

PV (Brazil's Green Party) could be considered ideological on the sense that it's strongly connected to the green movement and with a well defined program. However, unlike many Green Parties around the world, PV doesn't really tilt to the left on economical issues (Eduardo Jorge, PV's candidate to the presidency in 2014, made this very clear back then). I guess you could define it as a centrist party with a liberal streak (on the European sense of the word) and a strong concern for ecological causes.

On the right side of the political spectrum, PSC is probably the most well defined party, as a Christian Democracy party. It tilts hardly to the left on social issues, but it's hard to define it on the economy (some on the party, like 2014 presidential candidate Pastor Everaldo, are fiscal conservatives, but it's not a unanimous position on the party). Meanwhile, DEM has slowly morphed into a center-right, fiscal conservative party, but it's not a done deal yet - it'll take a little while for this process to consolidate.

PSDB is a mess ideologically. It has a center left faction (connected to its left wing roots, led by FHC and José Serra), a centrist, pragmatic faction (pretty much Aecio Neves' faction, it blends the party social democracy tilt with it's younger, fiscal conservative factions) and a younger, center right faction, formed by younger politicians that oppose vehemently PT's government (this is Geraldo Alckmin's faction). I think it's slowly drifting from the center-left to the center-right as the years go by, but this is an agonizingly slow process that's been hurting the party for the last 14 years.

PPS is a center-left party that goes along well with PSDB's center-left faction. Thus, PPS is pretty much a center-left satellite of PSDB nowadays. The same could be said about SD, a very curious case of a labor movement party with a fiscal conservative tilt.

PSB was traditionally a left party. Today, I'd say it's a center left party that's tilting to the center. They seem to be lost between its older faction (that's strongly left wing) and its new faction (that's centrist and pro business, largely created by Eduardo Campos).

Marina Silva's REDE is a huge question mark. No one really knows what it stands for. Not having a clear program hurt Marina Silva in 2014 and could hurt her again in the future.

All the other parties in Congress are totally non ideological. Sadly, there are some 15 parties with over 250 Congressmen and 40 Senators that stand for nothing. Some may tilt to the right on social issues, but it's not a well defined thing.

b) Among parties with no representation in Congress, there are some far-left parties (like PCB, PSTU and PCO). Now there's also NOVO, Brazil's first truly liberal party (fiscally conservative and socially liberal).