The Great Brazil Topic

[DanPrazeres]

Wow, I'm surprised she still has any allied parties. Except maybe the Communists.

It's Ciro Gomes.

[Paleobrazilian]

The impeachment request will be read on the Senate today. Then, party leaders will start appointing names to the special commission that will be formed there. However, since there's a national holiday on Thursday, the works of the commission should only start next Tuesday.

[Paleobrazilian]

According to Epoca, Brazil's Attorney General will present criminal charges against Lula in a few days. A criminal investigation against Dilma on accounts of obstruction of justice are also extremely likely.

[RodPresident]

Pro-Dilma coalition is basically PT. PC do B, PDT and some parts of PR (Valdemar da Costa Neto). And NE governors helped a lot in getting some anti-impeachment votes. Maranhao governor Flavio Dino (PC do B) worked a lot to get pro-Dilma votes, while Roseana Sarney that got all suport from Lula worked against Dilma because she's in very difficult situation.

[Vega]

Pro-Dilma coalition is basically PT. PC do B, PDT and some parts of PR (Valdemar da Costa Neto). And NE governors helped a lot in getting some anti-impeachment votes. Maranhao governor Flavio Dino (PC do B) worked a lot to get pro-Dilma votes, while Roseana Sarney that got all suport from Lula worked against Dilma because she's in very difficult situation.

Yikes. That is an extremely weak coalition.

[buritobr]

My text about the weakening of the democratic institutions in Brazil

http://www.trincheiras.com.br/2016/03/o-retrocesso-a-uma-democracia-racionada/

In Portuguese

[Paleobrazilian]

1 - The impeachment commission will start its works on Monday, not on Tuesday. There's general consensus that the country cannot wait much longer for a solution to the political crisis.

2 - Dilma will travel to NYC tomorrow to sign the Paris Treaty. Thus, for the rest of the week, Temer will be the acting president :lol: Dilma avoided official travels for the last month for this reason. This time, she decided to go so that she can tell all the international media how she's the victim of a "coup".

[Paleobrazilian]

Two PMDB Ministers just resigned from office as the party coalesces around Temer. Meanwhile, Temer is still in São Paulo, with hundreds of meetings, trying to prepare what may soon be his Cabinet. Yesterday he met São Paulo's State Secretary of Public Security, Alexandre de Morais (PSDB/SP). It's speculated that Temer offered him the position of Solicitor General.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So what about the movement to declare the election of Dilma-Temer illegitimate and immediate reelections? Is that still going to happen?

[DanPrazeres]

So what about the movement to declare the election of Dilma-Temer illegitimate and immediate reelections? Is that still going to happen?

Today the Electoral Superior Tribunal authorized the Federal Police to get crime proofs of the campaign.

Well, it depends on Gilmar Mendes, actual president of the tribunal. So, without other pressures like protests or the media, it depends on what PSDB or Serra wants (because they are very best friends).

[Simfan34]

Do you think Serra might try to run again? He and Geraldo are well past their expiration dates, even if they are both pretty good, but they clearly both want the job.

[buritobr]

Brazilian economist Laura Carvalho explaining in her colum in New York Times why the Rousseff's impeachment was a coup d'stat

http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2016/04/18/in-brazil-a-house-cleaning-or-a-coup/the-ousting-of-brazilian-president-dilma-rousseff-constitutes-a-coup

[RodPresident]

Do you think Serra might try to run again? He and Geraldo are well past their expiration dates, even if they are both pretty good, but they clearly both want the job.

PSDB-SP is in civil war between Alckmin and Serra factions. Then Serra is supporting Temer believing that he can jump to PMDB to get presidential nomination. Alckmin is in fear of having a powerful PMDB to oppose him in São Paulo politics.
But a surprise can happen as Henrique Meirelles (PSD) is now the favourite to be Minister of Treasury. He met Temer along Romero Jucá (eternal Government Leader in Senate and acting President of PMDB) and former minister Gilberto Kassab (PSD). He asked full control of economic policy to accept.

[Derpist]

Is there any chance the wonderful Jair Bolsonaro makes it a second round?

I'm not actually sure that's even a desirable outcome (since I'd rather the top two contenders compete for his support).

[RodPresident]

Is there any chance the wonderful Jair Bolsonaro makes it a second round?

I'm not actually sure that's even a desirable outcome (since I'd rather the top two contenders compete for his support).

Brazil's party system imploded. Bolsonaro made an agreement with Pastor Everaldo, PSC's chairman that he'll be the candidate if he gets more than 10% in polls. He can get it, but I doubt that he gets in runoff, unless PSDB implodes in multiples candidates and left-wing gets competitive candidates. I think that his ceiling in 1st round is 20%.

[MaxQue]

Is there any chance the wonderful Jair Bolsonaro makes it a second round?

You know what?
I hope that what happened to people opposing people praised by that person happens to you.

[DanPrazeres]

Is there any chance the wonderful Jair Bolsonaro makes it a second round?

I'm not actually sure that's even a desirable outcome (since I'd rather the top two contenders compete for his support).

After last sunday, nobody would look for his support in the clear way. Even if he gets 10% or 15%, it's very complicated to PSDB explain support a man that supports torturers of the dictadure that they fought against.

And if he wins, it will be time to take guns because democracy exploded (and i'm talking serious).

[Zioneer]

Is there any chance the wonderful Jair Bolsonaro makes it a second round?

I'm not actually sure that's even a desirable outcome (since I'd rather the top two contenders compete for his support).

You're supportive of a literal apologist for tyrants and torturers? The guy who dedicated his impeachment vote to the guy who was in charge of torturing the current president?

[RodPresident]

Is there any chance the wonderful Jair Bolsonaro makes it a second round?

I'm not actually sure that's even a desirable outcome (since I'd rather the top two contenders compete for his support).

You're supportive of a literal apologist for tyrants and torturers? The guy who dedicated his impeachment vote to the guy who was in charge of torturing the current president?

Bolsonaro is so dumb that Ustra didn't torture Dilma.

[Derpist]

Is there any chance the wonderful Jair Bolsonaro makes it a second round?

I'm not actually sure that's even a desirable outcome (since I'd rather the top two contenders compete for his support).

You're supportive of a literal apologist for tyrants and torturers? The guy who dedicated his impeachment vote to the guy who was in charge of torturing the current president?

He seems bizarrely clean for a Brazilian politician and he stands up against both criminals and other PC stufff. I don't really care that much about his views on history; I've personally heard a lot of mixed stuff about the military period.

Elected officials have too much civility anyways.

[Simfan34]

Do you think Serra might try to run again? He and Geraldo are well past their expiration dates, even if they are both pretty good, but they clearly both want the job.

PSDB-SP is in civil war between Alckmin and Serra factions. Then Serra is supporting Temer believing that he can jump to PMDB to get presidential nomination. Alckmin is in fear of having a powerful PMDB to oppose him in São Paulo politics.
But a surprise can happen as Henrique Meirelles (PSD) is now the favourite to be Minister of Treasury. He met Temer along Romero Jucá (eternal Government Leader in Senate and acting President of PMDB) and former minister Gilberto Kassab (PSD). He asked full control of economic policy to accept.

So Aecio's out, then? What about Aecio, anyway? Is he clean?

[DanPrazeres]

Do you think Serra might try to run again? He and Geraldo are well past their expiration dates, even if they are both pretty good, but they clearly both want the job.

PSDB-SP is in civil war between Alckmin and Serra factions. Then Serra is supporting Temer believing that he can jump to PMDB to get presidential nomination. Alckmin is in fear of having a powerful PMDB to oppose him in São Paulo politics.
But a surprise can happen as Henrique Meirelles (PSD) is now the favourite to be Minister of Treasury. He met Temer along Romero Jucá (eternal Government Leader in Senate and acting President of PMDB) and former minister Gilberto Kassab (PSD). He asked full control of economic policy to accept.

So Aecio's out, then? What about Aecio, anyway? Is he clean?

He is in the Lista of Furnas, so his name is mentioned some times in Lava Jato. And Aécio's faction of PSDB is against Alckmin and Serra

[DanPrazeres]

Is there any chance the wonderful Jair Bolsonaro makes it a second round?

I'm not actually sure that's even a desirable outcome (since I'd rather the top two contenders compete for his support).

You're supportive of a literal apologist for tyrants and torturers? The guy who dedicated his impeachment vote to the guy who was in charge of torturing the current president?

He seems bizarrely clean for a Brazilian politician and he stands up against both criminals and other PC stufff. I don't really care that much about his views on history; I've personally heard a lot of mixed stuff about the military period.

Elected officials have too much civility anyways.

His brother was phantom employee of São Paulo's Assembly.

He was almost expelled from the army because he tried to put bombs in military towns.

He said that FHC deserved to be shot multiple times.

He dedicated his vote to the one known as the greatest torturer in the military dictatorship. We had a Truth National Commission, and Ulstra was one of the top guilties. I don't want to put pictures of his tortures, hope you understand.

[Paleobrazilian]

The Senate impeachment commission will start its works today. Raimundo Lira (PMDB/CE) will be elected its President and Antonio Anastasia (PSDB/MG) will be the rapporteur. The commission will be composed by 21 Senators, and at least 14 of them will be voting to impeach Dilma, ensuring that a pro-impeachment report to be voted by the floor of the Senate early next month.

[jaichind]

Folha reports that Rousseff Said Mulling New Elections Even If Impeachment fails. 

Estimates of Brazil’s Senators Backing Impeachment by media outlet seems to be
Estado  48 yes  20 no 3 undecided 9 declined answer
Globo    48 yes  21 no 12 undecided or declined to answer
Folha    50 yes  20 no  2 undecided 7 declined to answer

Funny that even a simple poll of 81 people would lead to different results.  One way or another there seems to be the majority for impeachment process to start but not the 54 needed to impeach.