The Great Brazil Topic

[Simfan34]

The idea of polling-- surveying, really-- the legislature strikes me as rather novel, at least from an American context.

Even if Dilma is considering new elections, there still isn't a mechanism under which they could be held, right?

[DanPrazeres]

The idea of polling-- surveying, really-- the legislature strikes me as rather novel, at least from an American context.

Even if Dilma is considering new elections, there still isn't a mechanism under which they could be held, right?

If a PEC - Amendment to the constitution pass, it could happen. But it could be contested in supreme tribunal.

And there is a chance that both she and Temer would resign, but she has to combine with the russians (in this case, Temer and all the opposition).

[RodPresident]

The idea of polling-- surveying, really-- the legislature strikes me as rather novel, at least from an American context.

Even if Dilma is considering new elections, there still isn't a mechanism under which they could be held, right?

If a PEC - Amendment to the constitution pass, it could happen. But it could be contested in supreme tribunal.

And there is a chance that both she and Temer would resign, but she has to combine with the russians (in this case, Temer and all the opposition).

Brazilian law respects too much "vested right". Then if Temer doesn't accept new elections, he can go to Supreme Court to strike down it. But this is very unlikely, as this needs to be approved by 3/5 of National Congress, in 2 votes in each House.

[jaichind]

Globo senators survey:    49 yes 21 no 11 undecided or declined to answer
Estado senators survey:   50 yes 20 no 3 undecided 7 declined to answer 1 may be on temporary leave

[Paleobrazilian]

The works of the impeachment commission have finally started. Sen. Anastasia will definitely produce a pro-impeachment report, which will easily pass the commission (a 15-6 or 16-5 vote is the most likely outcome). This vote will take place on May 6th. Then the report will be submitted to the floor of the Senate, where a simple majority will be required to formally trigger an impeachment process against Dilma, automatically suspending her from office for up to 180 days. This vote is expected to happen on May 12th, and it's believed that Temer would probably take oath on May 13th (but some want him to take oath on May 12th, even if an earlier vote on the floor becomes necessary, because they don't like the idea of Temer taking oath on a Friday the 13th*).

*curious trivia: there's a long living hoax here in Brazil that Michel Temer is a Satanist, something that would only be reinforced if he takes oath on a Friday the 13th. While this is _{(most likely)} a false rumor solely based on the fact that Temer is a Freemason, this hoax is still seen on many places on the internet, and I'm sure Temer wouldn't want to reinforce it.

[DanPrazeres]

The works of the impeachment commission have finally started. Sen. Anastasia will definitely produce a pro-impeachment report, which will easily pass the commission (a 15-6 or 16-5 vote is the most likely outcome). This vote will take place on May 6th. Then the report will be submitted to the floor of the Senate, where a simple majority will be required to formally trigger an impeachment process against Dilma, automatically suspending her from office for up to 180 days. This vote is expected to happen on May 12th, and it's believed that Temer would probably take oath on May 13th (but some want him to take oath on May 12th, even if an earlier vote on the floor becomes necessary, because they don't like the idea of Temer taking oath on a Friday the 13th*).

*curious trivia: there's a long living hoax here in Brazil that Michel Temer is a Satanist, something that would only be reinforced if he takes oath on a Friday the 13th. While this is _{(most likely)} a false rumor solely based on the fact that Temer is a Freemason, this hoax is still seen on many places on the internet, and I'm sure Temer wouldn't want to reinforce it.

Muahuahuhuahuauha

[buritobr]

This week, the Legislative Assembly of the state of Alagoas approved an act which can punish teachers who support their political views in the classroom. Assemblies in other states are discussing this kind of act too. There is a proposal in the federal Chamber of Deputies too. They are influenced by far right lobbies which say that there is "marxist indoctrination" at schools. Religious fundamentalists support this kind of law. They want to ban pro-LGBT education. They say that "gender ideology" is evil.

Brazil is moving back to the Dark Age.

[MaxQue]

Brazil is moving back to the Dark Age.

It's quite obvious, with the Wall Street coup and their alliance with the far-right.

Sad that Lula didn't have the guts to ban the foreign "missionnaries". They are, in fact, a 5th column.

[Derpist]

This week, the Legislative Assembly of the state of Alagoas approved an act which can punish teachers who support their political views in the classroom. Assemblies in other states are discussing this kind of act too. There is a proposal in the federal Chamber of Deputies too. They are influenced by far right lobbies which say that there is "marxist indoctrination" at schools. Religious fundamentalists support this kind of law. They want to ban pro-LGBT education. They say that "gender ideology" is evil.

Excellent. I went to a school that prioritized teaching LGBT-politics over basic skill sets and for a district of its socioeconomic status, it really did churn out way too many totally unprepared students.

[Paleobrazilian]

According to rumors, Dilma will resign on Friday, after a speech to the nation where she'll ask Temer to resign as well as a way to call a general election. By resigning before the Senate opens impeachment proceedings against her, not only she would avoid the shame of being impeached, but she also would avoid the risk of losing her political rights for 8 years - the political sanction for impeached politicians in Brazil. On the downside, she, Lula and her entire Cabinet will be immediately subjected to the jurisdiction of Sergio Moro if she does this.

[Simfan34]

Pulling a Janio Quadros? I still don't see how elections can be held, though.

[jaichind]

According to rumors, Dilma will resign on Friday, after a speech to the nation where she'll ask Temer to resign as well as a way to call a general election. By resigning before the Senate opens impeachment proceedings against her, not only she would avoid the shame of being impeached, but she also would avoid the risk of losing her political rights for 8 years - the political sanction for impeached politicians in Brazil. On the downside, she, Lula and her entire Cabinet will be immediately subjected to the jurisdiction of Sergio Moro if she does this.

Well, this is after she announced more public housing units and an average 9 percent increase in the cash transfer program known as Bolsa Familia, even as Brazil faces a record budget deficit.  In addition to increased spending on Bolsa Familia and a 5 percent income tax adjustment, Rousseff offered extended paternity leave for public servants, increased financial help for small-scale farmers, and the creation of a council with representatives from labor groups, businesses and government to look after workers’ rights.

This is a bobby trap for the incoming regime.

[Paleobrazilian]

The Attorney General has just presented criminal charges against Lula.

PS: he also opened a criminal investigation against Dilma.

[Paleobrazilian]

Eduardo Cunha has been suspended from the House by the Supreme Court until the criminal proceedings against him are concluded. Thus, the House will now have to elect its new President.

[RodPresident]

Speaker and gangster Eduardo Cunha (PMDB-RJ) is suspended of his term as Congressman, then of Speakership, by a monocratic decision by Minister Zavascki. Supreme Court didn't say anything for 141 days, time more of enough to him command a coup d'etat with traitor and conspirator Michel Temer (PMDB).
A fun note: Temer lost his political rights for 8 years after donating more than legal limit (10 % of personal yield of year before election).

[Simfan34]

So, the door closes on Dilma, hits Cunha on the way out, and Temer's daughter is getting ready to be first lady.

[RodPresident]

So, the door closes on Dilma, hits Cunha on the way out, and Temer's daughter is getting ready to be first lady.

No. Temer has a trophy wife who's 40 years younger than him. There was a meme about her "bela, recatada e do lar!". One of Temer's daughters, Luciana Temer disagrees with impeachment and stayed with Fernando Haddad government.

[Simfan34]

Oh! His wife?

Apparently the Chamber has voided the impeachment? Isn't the Senate supposed to vote today? Are we sure this isn't some desperate move lacking appropriate procedure?

EDIT: Apparently the interim speaker has taken it upon himself to nullify the previous impeachment. I can't imagine he's allowed to do that.

[Vega]

Yeah, the Senate vote isn't happening, apparently.

[DanPrazeres]

Yeah, the Senate vote isn't happening, apparently.

Renan said that will continue the process normally.
But the Supreme Court should to judge the question (before wednesday).
And Maranhão can be expelled from his party, what would can facilitate a new election of the direction of the Deputy chamber. But it would be a bad thing to Cunha. So, maybe won't happen (and probably this action of Maranhão was under orders of Cunha to mess the things, so everything can happen).

[Simfan34]

Apparently Maranhao voted against the impeachment? How was he chosen, anyway?

[DanPrazeres]

Apparently Maranhao voted against the impeachment? How was he chosen, anyway?

He is a Cunha allied. He was the PP's indicated in the Cunha list for the chamber election last year, as the VP of the House.

He was in favour for impeachment, but the fact that Sarney Family (that became enemies) turned pro impeachment made him change sides (besides, the fact that Flavio Dino, Maranhão's Governor, promised to support him for Senate in 2018 may helped).

He can be a infiltrated agent of Cunha too, no one knows.

Well, politics in Brasil looks like everyday less House of Cards and more just like that other series, yes, Lost.

[RodPresident]

Apparently Maranhao voted against the impeachment? How was he chosen, anyway?

He is a Cunha allied. He was the PP's indicated in the Cunha list for the chamber election last year, as the VP of the House.

He was in favour for impeachment, but the fact that Sarney Family (that became enemies) turned pro impeachment made him change sides (besides, the fact that Flavio Dino, Maranhão's Governor, promised to support him for Senate in 2018 may helped).

He can be a infiltrated agent of Cunha too, no one knows.

Well, politics in Brasil looks like everyday less House of Cards and more just like that other series, yes, Lost.

Maranhão turned back as Senator Ciro Nogueira (PP's chairman and in deep problems with Car Wash) threatened him of expelling of party and of asking his mandate back.

[Vega]

What are "substitution deputies"? Could someone please explain that?

[ag]

What are "substitution deputies"? Could someone please explain that?

I am not certain about Brazil, but in other Latin American countries they frequently elect a "suplente": a person who would become a deputy if the real deputy has to resign/dies/whatever. In Mexico these are typically elected as a package: there would be the name of suplente somewhere on the same ballot.