The Great Brazil Topic

[buritobr]

MDA poll for the presidential election of October 2018

Scenario 1
Luís Inácio Lula da Silva 30.5%
Marina Silva 11.8%
Jair Bolsonaro 11.3%
Aécio Neves 10.1%
Ciro Gomes 5%

Scenario 2
Luís Inácio Lula da Silva 31.8%
Marina Silva 12.1%
Jair Bolsonaro 11.7%
Geraldo Alckmin 9.1%
Ciro Gomes 5.3%

Runoff

Luís Inácio Lula da Silva 39.7%
Aécio Neves 27.5%

Luís Inácio Lula da Silva 38.9%
Marina Silva 27.4%

MDA made no runoff scenario between Lula and the far right leader Jair Bolsonaro


Temer's job
24.4% approve
62.4% disapprove

44.1% bad/very bad

[Mike88]

So, Lula is unbeatable...

Is he that popular or just the least bad of all?

[buritobr]

So, Lula is unbeatable...

Is he that popular or just the least bad of all?

Least bad

Lula was very popular during his term. Then, he became unpopular after the corruption scandals found during the Lava Jato (2014-2016) and after the economic crisis during Dilma's administration. The Workers Party had several defeats in the 2016 municipal elections.

But now, Lava Jato is showing that there are many leaders from the PMDB and PSDB in the corruption scandals too. The Federal Police and the attorney could not find evidence that Lula had personal benefit from the corruption. It is widely known that there was corruption in his administration in order to keep a supporting base in the Congress and in order to give money to the electoral campaigns of the Workers Party (PT). But Lula didn't become rich because of the corruption.
The economy is going bad even after nine months of Temer's administration. People think: there was corruption in Lula's administration, but our lives were getting better, and now our lives are getting worse.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Given the widespread corruption in all parties, is there a chance we could see new parties (stuff like 5SM, Podemos, C's etc) become popular and enter congress?

[buritobr]

Given the widespread corruption in all parties, is there a chance we could see new parties (stuff like 5SM, Podemos, C's etc) become popular and enter congress?

Yes.
PSOL is the Brazilian version of Podemos, Linke and Syriza. It has 6 congressmen. The 2014 presidential candidate Luciana Genro had 1.5%, but in the 2016 municipal elections, the candidate for mayor of Rio de Janeiro Marcelo Freixo had 18% in the first round, went to the runoff and had 40%.

No new parties are needed because there are more than 10 parties in the Brazilian congresso. But there are lots of strange politicians who rose after the distrust in mainstream politics. The comedian Tiririca was the congressmen who had the biggest number of votes. The mayor of São Paulo João Doria is from the PSDB, a big party, but he doesn't belong to the mainstream of PSDB. He is a kind of Donald Trump, who joined the party as an outsider.

[buritobr]

For the ones who can read Portuguese
http://www.trincheiras.com.br/2017/02/qual-e-o-bairro-mais-esquerdista-do-rio-de-janeiro-qual-e-o-bairro-mais-direitista/

An analysis of the results by borough from Rio de Janeiro of the runoff of the 2014 presidential election and the results of the runoff of the 2016 municipal election.

In the runoff of the 2014 presidential election, Dilma Rousseff had 51% and Aécio Neves had 49% in the city of Rio de Janeiro. Dilma Rousseff, supported by left-wing parties, did better in low income boroughs, and Aécio Neves, supported by right-wing parties, did better in high income boroughs.

In the runoff of the 2016 municipal election, Marcelo Crivella had 59% and Marcelo Freixo had 41%. Unlike what happenned in 2014, in 2016, the polarization was inverted. Marcelo Freixo, supported by left-wing parties, did better in high income boroughs, and Marcelo Crivella, supported by right-wing parties, did better in low income boroughs.

The text presents the results of both elections in every borough. The text shows that, although both Dilma and Freixo are leftists, the correlation of their votes according to the boroughs is negative (or: although both Aécio and Crivella are rightists, the correlation of their votes according to the boroughs is negative).

Though the calculation of the average of the elections of 2014 and 2016, it was possible to rank all the boroughs of Rio de Janeiro, from the most left-wing to the most right-wing.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

https://www.dezeen.com/2017/03/14/brazil-president-michel-temer-flees-ghosts-oscar-niemeyer-home-palacio-da-alvorada-brasilia


Is Temer doing it on purpose or something?

[RodPresident]

https://www.dezeen.com/2017/03/14/brazil-president-michel-temer-flees-ghosts-oscar-niemeyer-home-palacio-da-alvorada-brasilia


Is Temer doing it on purpose or something?

And he spent $7000 of our money to refurbish and install a child safety screen in palace. Legitimate president Dilma Rousseff trolled Temer saying that "she didn't see any phantoms in palace".

[RodPresident]

Brazil's state of exception promoted by Car Wash is showing signs of getting deeper. Judge Sergio Moro ordered that blogger Eduardo Guimaraes to be taken from home for questioning. Guimaraes, who ran for town councilor for PC do B in São Paulo, leaked in February, 2016 about Lula's arrest for questioning and the search warrant against seat of Workers Party. They took his equipment (notebook and smartphone) to know about his sources. Guimaraes has already denounced Moro in National Council of Justice (judiciary's control board) for his pratices. And Moro accuses Guimaraes of libel. I'd compare this affair with Assange's wikileaks, as Moro and allies are trying to take informations from Guimaraes notebook and smartphone about his sources, as trying to retaliate Guimaraes.
https://www.cartacapital.com.br/politica/moro-viola-sigilo-de-fonte-de-blogueiro-que-o-denunciou-no-cnj
http://jornalggn.com.br/noticia/com-o-caso-eduardo-guimaraes-moro-atravessa-o-rubicao

[buritobr]

Brazil Conference, na event organized by the Harvard University and the MIT, will take place in Cambridge, Massachusetts, in April 7th and 8th.
http://www.brazilconference.org/2017/pt/home_br/
Famous left-wing and right-wing Brazilians will speak.
The list of lecturers include former president Dilma Rousseff, former candidate Marina Silva, Supreme Court judges Gilmar Mendes and Luís Roberto Barroso, former left-wing senator Eduardo Suplicy, far right philosopher Olavo de Carvalho, former mayor of São Paulo Fernando Haddad and businessman Paulo Leman.

[buritobr]

Today, there was a big strike against the pension reform, the labor market reform and the austerity plan.
I was in the rally at downtown Rio de Janeiro. There was some few "black bloc", but most of the demonstrators were peaceful: teachers, students, public emplyees, workers, retired people. The riot police was very violent. We could smell lots of tear gas.

[Paleobrazilian]

Breaking news: Michel Temer has been caught on tape asking JBS' CEO Joesley Batista to pay bribes to Eduardo Cunha to avoid a whistleblower agreement from Cunha.

This is the end of Michel Temer. I expect him to resign pretty soon after this.

[RodPresident]

Breaking news: Michel Temer has been caught on tape asking JBS' CEO Joesley Batista to pay bribes to Eduardo Cunha to avoid a whistleblower agreement from Cunha.

This is the end of Michel Temer. I expect him to resign pretty soon after this.

JBS is world's largest meat processing group. They bought a lot of companies of meat and they mounted a large business company, including power plants, paper companies and . Aecio Neves, president of PSDB, was taped too, saying that we "need one person (to carry bribe money) that can be killed before doing a plea bargain". Bribe money to PSDB and PMDB were track backed and money was put in a company of senator Zezé Perrella (Aécio's ally).

[Ebsy]

Congratulations President Lula!

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So will Rodrigo Maia be president now?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

2/3rds majority makes it hard for Impeachment to be completely baseless. I don't think that this will become a trend if there isn't cause for it.

All Brazilian politicians are corrupt - Dilma's VP and likely successor is by any standard clearly worse on this score than she is - which means that 'cause' can always be found. This kind of behavior can become addictive and cause serious damage to institutions.

no one saw this coming!!

[Paleobrazilian]

So will Rodrigo Maia be president now?

If (when, IMO) Temer resigns, Congress will have to hold an unicameral session to elect a stopgap President in 30 days. Until then, Rodrigo Maia would be the acting President.

[Paleobrazilian]

Ibovespa has gone into circuit breaker mode for the 1st time since the 2008 crisis. Ouch, the recession is back. This is the perfect storm.

[Zioneer]

Breaking news: Michel Temer has been caught on tape asking JBS' CEO Joesley Batista to pay bribes to Eduardo Cunha to avoid a whistleblower agreement from Cunha.

This is the end of Michel Temer. I expect him to resign pretty soon after this.

Jeez, Brazil is going through presidents like flies. I guess for lack of a better option, Lula would probably be best, right?

[Nhoj]

Breaking news: Michel Temer has been caught on tape asking JBS' CEO Joesley Batista to pay bribes to Eduardo Cunha to avoid a whistleblower agreement from Cunha.

This is the end of Michel Temer. I expect him to resign pretty soon after this.

Jeez, Brazil is going through presidents like flies. I guess for lack of a better option, Lula would probably be best, right?

This might happen to us within a few weeks...

[Paleobrazilian]

Breaking news: Michel Temer has been caught on tape asking JBS' CEO Joesley Batista to pay bribes to Eduardo Cunha to avoid a whistleblower agreement from Cunha.

This is the end of Michel Temer. I expect him to resign pretty soon after this.

Jeez, Brazil is going through presidents like flies. I guess for lack of a better option, Lula would probably be best, right?

Lula will be lucky if he isn't in jail by the end of the month.

[Mike88]

Breaking news: Michel Temer has been caught on tape asking JBS' CEO Joesley Batista to pay bribes to Eduardo Cunha to avoid a whistleblower agreement from Cunha.

This is the end of Michel Temer. I expect him to resign pretty soon after this.

Jeez, Brazil is going through presidents like flies. I guess for lack of a better option, Lula would probably be best, right?

Lula will be lucky if he isn't in jail by the end of the month.

Lula is just as corrupt as Temer. His name is also involved, here in Portugal, in the corruption case against former PM José Sócrates. Brasil has a real problem right now... Of the potential candidates for 2018, the vast majority is involved in corruption cases. I think Marina Silva is involved in something also, i recall reading something about it.

Frankly i don't know who can really lead Brasil right now or in the near future.

[EnglishPete]

So will Rodrigo Maia be president now?

If (when, IMO) Temer resigns, Congress will have to hold an unicameral session to elect a stopgap President in 30 days. Until then, Rodrigo Maia would be the acting President.

Who is likely to be elected as stopgap President?

[Paleobrazilian]

So will Rodrigo Maia be president now?

If (when, IMO) Temer resigns, Congress will have to hold an unicameral session to elect a stopgap President in 30 days. Until then, Rodrigo Maia would be the acting President.

Who is likely to be elected as stopgap President?

That is one terrifying question because we don't even know how this indirect election would happen. According to the Constitution, a federal law should regulate this election and who can run for the presidency under such a scenario. However, this law has never been passed by the Congress (even though our Constitution turns 30 next year and there was plenty of time to do this earlier...), so it's highly likely that the Congress will have to come up with ad hoc rules (probably based on the rules applicable to normal elections) and that the whole process will be under intense scrutiny from the Supreme Court.

If I'm correct on my prediction about the rules which would be applied under such a scenario, then no independent would be able to run, as party affiliation is a requisite of eligibility in Brazil. Also, sitting Governors, Mayors, Ministers, Executive and Judicial office holders would be barred from running. That would eliminate some candidates like Gov. Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB/SP), Mayor João Doria (PSDB/SP) and Supreme Court President Carmen Lucia (Ind/MG).

Among the names who have been floated since yesterday there's Former Supreme Court Judge and Justice and Defence Minister Nelson Jobim (PMDB/RS), who worked with both FHC and Lula and could be seen as an "elder statesman" to guide the Country until 2018. Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles (PSD/SP) has been mentioned by many people and would be the preferred solution of the markets, however I have doubts about his eligibility because he's currently a Minister. Believe it or not, even FHC was brought up, but his staff claims he's not interested (and I really don't think he'd be willing to take the job when he's about to turn 86...). I wouldn't rule out Rodrigo Maia being elected by his own peers to fill out the term, though.

[Simfan34]

Temer is resigning-- already?! I can't believe it, but I envy Brazil's politics right now.

Fora Temer! Fora Trump!