The Great Brazil Topic

[RodPresident]

Yesterday, former Speaker of Chamber of Deputies and former Minister of Tourism Henrique Eduardo Alves (PMDB-RN), one of top allies of Michel Temer, was arrested for charges of receiving bribes from building of World Cup Arena in Natal (RN) and for sharing a bribe account with his sucessor as speaker, the already jailed Eduardo Cunha. He'll join Cunha and Rodrigo Rocha Loures (boy who received a bribe bag from JBS) in jail. Things are going to be very ugly for Temer and his gang.
While that Temer is in troubles for lying about a flight going to a business forum (owned by São Paulo's mayor João Doria) in a plane owned by Joesley Batista, JBS owner who delated him. He said that he used a Air Force Plane, but flight reports showed that he went in Batista's plane and his wife received flowers from Batista.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

What would happen if the election were "nullified"?

[Paleobrazilian]

What would happen if the election were "nullified"?

An indirect election would be held by the Congress to elect a stopgap President to finish Dilma's/Temer's term.

But the election won't be declared null it seems. The judges of the Supreme Electoral Court are acting like Temer puppets.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

What would happen if the election were "nullified"?

An indirect election would be held by the Congress to elect a stopgap President to finish Dilma's/Temer's term.

But the election won't be declared null it seems. The judges of the Supreme Electoral Court are acting like Temer puppets.

Thanks.

Edit: Btw, who would be President/act as President between nullification and congressional election?

[RodPresident]

PSDB decided to stay in Temer's government. Many say that main reason behind it is that PSDB wants PMDB support in 2018 and PSDB fears that Aecio can lose PMDB's support in Senate Ethics Committee.

[Simfan34]

1.500 soldiers arrived in Brasilia to reinforce the security, the Military Police estimated 35.000 people protesting at it's peak and the CUT estimated 200.000 people during all the day, ministries buildings have been targets of vandalism. 7 people were jailed and 49 injured.

The CUT launched the #, "#OcupaBrasilia" (#OccupyBrasilia)

The chances of this guy becoming President just shot up.



But ideally someone like Joaquim Barbosa will be selected.

He is denying there will be any military intervention almost every other day now. To me, the increasing frequency of such statements closely mimics the pattern that of the Thai army's similar assurances that they wouldn't stage a coup, which both became more frequent and increasingly ambiguous over time, and we all know how that ended.

Villas Boas: Army is in state of "shock, consternation, and concern"

Villas Boas: Armed Forces are most trusted institution because of "values, ethics, and traditions", celebrates opinion poll showing 84% trust in military while presidency is trusted by just 3%

Imagine if Joseph Dunford were to talk in this manner with the background of everything that's been happening to Trump right now. We'd find that very odd, right?

[RodPresident]

Yesterday was a great day for Temer's allies: Aecio Neves (PSDB-MG) got back right to serve in Senate after a decision of Minister Marco Aurelio Mello (Collor's cousin) while Rodrigo Rocha Loures (PMDB-PR), known as Temer's "bag man" who carried JBS bribe money for Temer was released by Minister Edson Fachin.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Lula has been convinced and sentenced to nine and a half years in the slammer.

[Ebsy]

Lula has been convinced and sentenced to nine and a half years in the slammer.

Great typo.

[jaichind]

Lula will appeal.  If he wins his appeal before the race begins I guess he can still run.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I just love the contrast between punishment received by right-wing and left-wing politicians in Brazil...

[buritobr]

Lula was sentenced in a very low court. Since he was sentenced less than 20 years, he will be allowed to appeal free. He will be judged by a higher court. Only if he is sentenced for the second time, he will go to the prision and he will be not able to run. But the election will take place in October 2018. Usually, a higher court take one and a half year. Probably the trial will not be ready in August 2018, when the campaign starts, and so he will problably be able to run.
Sergio Moro, the judge who sentenced Lula today, has close ties to the PSDB, Lula's first enemy. The evidence that Lula owned a flat gave as a gift by a building contractor is very weak. Problably, Lula will receive a smaller sentence by a higher court.

Problably Lula will be allowed to run. But since he was sentenced, his image becomes very bad. I think it will be better if the center-left candidate is Ciro Gomes or Fernando Haddad.

[Different Republican]

I'm not actually that surprised by the fact that Lula was sentenced by Moro... I mean, if you thought that Lula wasn't going to be sentenced, well... Then I don't know what you were thinking...

I'm not sure of what PT will do if Lula can't run, but I'd expect Gomes to do much better.

[Kingpoleon]

Sarney Filho is probably my preferred candidate. Is there much of a chance of him running for President?

[Different Republican]

Sarney Filho is probably my preferred candidate. Is there much of a chance of him running for President?

Probably not... I didn't find anything that could hint about him running in the internet...

[RodPresident]

Temer's criminal procedure report made by congressman Sergio Zveiter (PMDB-RJ) was rejected in Committee of Constitutional Affairs and Justice of Chamber by 41-20 vote. Another report, against indictment, was made by Paulo Abi-Ackel (PSDB-MG), consecrating Aecio-Temer alliance for survival. Of six PSDB members in committee, only two voted for Temer. From Maia's DEM, 3 voted against indictment and one voted for. Government's ally parties (PMDB, PTB, PR, PSD, PP) changed members to defeat Zveiter's report. Government freed a lot of money to buy support.
Lula's sentence and Temer's victor were a cover up after a labor reform was approved by Senate without ammendments.

[buritobr]

Temer's criminal procedure was not approved by the House. 263 deputies rejected the accusation, 227 approved, so, Temer will not be trialed by the Supreme Court during the term.

Yesterday, Temer proposed that the Congress should aprove a constitutional amendment to introduce a parliamentary system, in order to replace the presidential system. It looks like a preventive coup. The center-right has no strong candidate for the 2018 presidential election. The favorites are Lula da Silva (center-left), Marina Silva (center) and Jair Bolsonaro (far right). So, the introduction of a parliamentary system would eliminate the presidential election.

[Simfan34]

Hasn't the PSDB been for parliamentarism for decades, and wasn't it tried briefly in the 1960/70s under the military government?

[buritobr]

Parliamentary system was briefly tried between 1961 and 1963. When president Jânio Quadros resigned, João Goulart was the vice president. But since he was considered too leftist, there was a semi-coup in 1961. The military made the Congress approve an Amendment introducing the parliamentary system, in order to remove the power from João Goulart. Tancredo Neves, who was more conservative than João Goulart, became prime minister. Then, there was a plebiscite in January 1963. The presidential system had 80% of the vote and João Goulart became a de-facto president. But in April 1964, he was removed by a military coup, which introduced the dictatorship for the following 20 years.

In 1993, 8 years after the redemocratization, there was a plebiscite again. And the presidential system won again. PSDB, who was founded in 1988, supported the parliamentary and lost.

If the supporters of the parliamentary want do discuss this topic again, OK, we can talk about a plebiscite again after the 2018 election. But discuss parliamentary only because Lula is leading the polls looks like a preventive coup.

[buritobr]

This week, the conservative majority in the Congress voted for the "distritão" to replace the proportional election system.

Nowadays, the Brazilian Congress is elected through na open list proportional system. According to the "distritão", each state will elect the representatives who have more votes, no matter the parties.

"Distritão" is much worse than open-list proportional, closed-list proportional, FPTP and mixed German system

[Lord Halifax]

This week, the conservative majority in the Congress voted for the "distritão" to replace the proportional election system.

Nowadays, the Brazilian Congress is elected through na open list proportional system. According to the "distritão", each state will elect the representatives who have more votes, no matter the parties.

"Distritão" is much worse than open-list proportional, closed-list proportional, FPTP and mixed German system

So if the state has 15 seats the 15 candidates with the most personal votes are elected? No list votes?

[brucejoel99]

This week, the conservative majority in the Congress voted for the "distritão" to replace the proportional election system.

Nowadays, the Brazilian Congress is elected through na open list proportional system. According to the "distritão", each state will elect the representatives who have more votes, no matter the parties.

"Distritão" is much worse than open-list proportional, closed-list proportional, FPTP and mixed German system

So if the state has 15 seats the 15 candidates with the most personal votes are elected? No list votes?

Correct: under the Distritão, like Brazil's current "proportional" system, every state's an electoral district; there are no geographical subdivisions, so those candidates receiving the most votes statewide are elected. Each state, under the Constitution, has between 8 & 70 federal deputies. The Distritão thus resembles elections for the Senate, where each state has 3 senators, & the candidates w/ the most votes are seated.

[Kingpoleon]

Lula has been convinced and sentenced to nine and a half years in the slammer.

My people in the Brazilian courts are reporting his convincion will be overturned.

[buritobr]

The parade of September 7h (Brazilian Independence) in Brasília. The soundtrack choosen by the presidential guard was a very good fit for Temer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h7cHZLydSpc

[Lord Halifax]

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/23/amazon-rainforest-close-to-irreversible-tipping-point

"Soaring deforestation coupled with the destructive policies of Brazil’s far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, could push the Amazon rainforest dangerously to an irreversible “tipping point” within two years, a prominent economist has said.

After this point the rainforest would stop producing enough rain to sustain itself and start slowly degrading into a drier savannah, releasing billions of tonnes of carbon into the atmosphere, which would exacerbate global heating and disrupt weather across South America."