The Great Brazil Topic

[jaichind]

According to CNT/MDA, 60% of the voters want Dilma's impeachment.

The same poll put her approval rating at 19% and losing to Neves 55.7% vs 16.7% if there is a re-vote of the October 2014 election.  I am wondering if Dilma is now thinking she is better off losing that election back in October 2014.

[jaichind]

My understanding is that the situation of Petrobras while not great, is a bit better than a few months ago looking at the CDS rates for Petrobras.  It seems that Petrobras will survive on the long run as a viable corporation despite all these scandals. 

The economic situation for Brazil in 2015 is pretty bad, but we all knew that months ago.  The bad news for Dilma is that 2016 is projected to bring a very weak recovery with still elevated inflation.

[jaichind]

Lula takes Cabinet Post as CO'S for Dilma.  This seems to prevent him from being charged with curruption. I think Dilma was Lula COS years ago.

[jaichind]

March 16 (AFP) -- Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff named her predecessor Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva her chief of staff Wednesday, sparing him possible arrest for corruption as she seeks to fend off the crisis rocking Latin America's biggest country.
The two leftists who have led Brazil for the past 13 years are both fighting for their political lives, and news they were teaming up again in the government deeply divided Brazil.
Allies call Lula the only man capable of saving Rousseff's embattled administration, but opponents condemn the fact that ministerial immunity will now protect him from prosecution in ordinary court.
Cabinet ministers can only be tried before the Supreme Court in Brazil.
The appointment is a risky bet for Rousseff, who is battling crises on multiple fronts: an impeachment attempt, a deep recession, mass protests and the fallout of an explosive corruption scandal at state oil giant Petrobras.
Lula was hugely popular when he stepped down five years ago at the height of an economic boom. But he returns to Brasilia with heavy baggage: he has himself been charged with money laundering in a case linked to the Petrobras scandal.
The opposition was quick to slam the appointment.
"Instead of explaining himself and assuming his responsibilities, former president Lula preferred to flee out the back door," said lawmaker Antonio Imbassahy, lower house leader for opposition party PMDB.
"It's a confession of guilt and a slap to society. President Dilma, by appointing him, has become his accomplice," Imbassahy added. "The final chapter in this story will be her impeachment."


Rousseff fired back at the criticism in a press conference.
"Lula's arrival in my government strengthens it and there are people who don't want it to be stronger," she said.
She played up Lula's political acumen and said she would give him "the necessary powers... to help Brazil."
Other opponents warned Lula would be the country's de facto leader.
"The ex-president is launching... his third term and the president is ending her second," said Green Party Senator Alvaro Dias.
Lula, 70, left office with 80 percent popularity ratings and the status of a hero to the left.
During his two terms, he presided over a watershed period of prosperity and social programs that helped lift tens of millions out of Brazilians poverty.
But his legacy is now threatened by charges that he accepted a luxury apartment as a bribe from a company implicated in the Petrobras scandal.
At a deeper level, he faces suspicions among many Brazilians that his entire administration was underpinned by graft.
Lula vigorously denies involvement in the scandal, in which investigators say construction companies conspired with Petrobras execs to overbill the oil giant to the tune of $2 billion, paying huge bribes to politicians and parties along the way.


Rousseff chaired Petrobras during much of the period in question, but does not face charges so far.
The anti-corruption probe now appears to have the president squarely in its sights, though.
In a plea deal published Tuesday, a senator arrested in the case accused Rousseff of trying to buy his silence.
The senator, Delcidio Amaral of the ruling Workers' Party, told investigators that Rousseff contacted him via intermediaries to urge him not to testify.
The president angrily denied the accusation.
Prosecutors have used plea bargains throughout the investigation to implicate a steadily expanding Who's Who politicians and business executives in the spiraling scandal.
The impeachment push against Rousseff is not directly related to the corruption scandal, but has advanced in tandem with it, deepening the crisis engulfing her administration.
The Supreme Court convened Wednesday to rule on the procedures for impeachment to go forward.
Rousseff's enemies in Congress launched the impeachment bid last year, but the high court halted it over procedural issues.
The president is accused of illegally manipulating the government's accounts to boost public spending during her 2014 re-election campaign.
On Sunday, an estimated three million Brazilians flooded the streets in nationwide protests calling for Rousseff's departure.
The president, whose government has ground to a virtual halt over the crisis, also risks being ditched by a key coalition partner, the centrist PMDB, the largest party in Brazil.

[jaichind]

What is also interesting is that the ebb and flow of the Brazil equity markets as well as the value of BRL seems to be driven by international investors going in and out depending on the likelihood of  Dilma being out.  The basic idea seems to be that if Dilma is out then the focus of the government can shift to fixing structural problems versus Dilma using fiscal policy to prop up her regime.  Not sure if Dilma  is out it will play out that way but that how the market and mainly international investors are playing.   

[jaichind]

I got back to what I wrote after the 2014 elections

Given what we know about the post-election Brazil and how close this election was, as someone else mentioned here, this will be a Pyrrhic victory.  

I think at this stage everyone in PT must be kicking themselves for not losing the 2014 elections.  If and when Dilma and Lalu get more exposed on what they have done and what they have done just to stay in power and out of jail, PT will not be able to comeback to power in a generation in my view.

[jaichind]

Hopefully this whole affair can come to ahead and be done with before the Olympics start.  The worst would be for impeachment to fair through various Shanaganes  and this entire affair continue to drag out into the summer.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Number of lawmakers who would vote for the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff rises to 340, according to O Estado de S.Paulo survey.
127 lawmakers would vote against impeachment
29 declined to answer how they’d vote, while 17 said they are undecided
NOTE: O Estado de S.Paulo is surveying all 513 lawmakers from Brazil lower house, updating their positions continuously
342 votes needed to approve impeachment in lower house

[jaichind]

April 15 (AFP) -- Brazil Supreme Court majority rejects move to stop impeachment

[jaichind]

With all this talk of curruption on both sides it is ironic the situition of vote being this close opens up more chances of bribiary and vote buying.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg) -- Number of lawmakers who would vote for impeachment fell to 340 from 342 earlier, according to Folha de S.Paulo survey.
Lower house deputy chief Waldir Maranhao announced he would change his vote and be against impeachment
Lawmaker Clarissa Garotinho requested maternity leave and won’t vote
Link to story
Number of pro-impeachment votes also fell in Estado survey, to 344, and in O Globo, to 342

[jaichind]

Latest tallies from Folha, Estado and Globo show between 347 and 350 votes for impeachment, above the 342 needed.  Somehow I still do not believe it they will go over 342.  I still think the regime still must have a bunch of rabbits to pull out of the hat given the resources it has available to it by default of being the ruling regime.  Still plenty of time for bags of cash and last minute illnesses.

[jaichind]

In theory this session ends at 9am or something. Any idea if they will vote now or near the end?  Also is the vote a secret ballot or not?

[jaichind]

Any link to a live stream of the debate and eventual vote count?

[jaichind]

Any surprises from the party leaders speeches? I assume all the party leader speeches just reinforces the position of said party on this topic. 

[jaichind]

Looks like they are about to start voting.

[jaichind]

504 Congressmen present for vote.

[jaichind]

Wow. This is going to take forever.

Yeah.  They should really use some sort of electronic device.  Do all of them need to give a speech as they vote ?

[jaichind]

12-3 for Yes so far.

[jaichind]

37-10-1

[jaichind]

The goal for Yes is to get to 342 out of 504 present or 67.9%

[jaichind]

Why is Globo not tracking the vote relative to what the Members of Congress that has voted so far has stated his/her voting intention were?  That seems much more important than the current count.

[jaichind]

So far not looking that good for Dilma

[jaichind]

88-28-3

[jaichind]

One possible good news for Dilma is that the sequence of voting has under-counted PT relative to PMDB and PSDB.  So there are relatively more PT members vote to come.   Problem is she is falling very far behind the count and these PT votes to come most likely will not be enough.