The Great Brazil Topic

[buritobr]

No surprise that Dilma's approval rate is very low. It is the economy, stupid. The Petrobras scandal has some influence, but not so much. Lula's approval rate never fell bellow 25% in 2005.
No surprise that Lula has low share of voters who still want to vote for him. He created Dilma and everybody knows.

But Aécio Neves is not doing well. Unlike other losing presidential candidates, who become termless politicians, Aécio is still a senator, since he was elected in 2010. So, he didn't leave the media. His speeches in the senate are commented in the mass media. Every post on his page in Facebook becomes news in the G1, the most important news web site.

Considering blank, nulified votes and abstentions, Aécio Neves had 24.4% of the vote in the first round in 2014 and 35.7% in the second round. This poll shows he has 35%. Not much more than the people who already voted for him last year.

[buritobr]

On August 16th, there were demonstrations in many Brazilian cities for the impeachment of president Dilma Rousseff. According to estimation made by the police, there were 150k demonstrators in São Paulo and 10k demonstrators in Rio de Janeiro. These were the big demonstrations. They were organized by right-wing groups. Some far-right demonstrations showed support for a military coup d'stat. Aécio Neves went to the demonstration in Belo Horizonte and José Serra went to the demonstration in São Paulo.
Today, there were demonstrations in many Brazilian cities against the impeachment. These demonstration were organized by left-wing parties, CUT (the biggest association of labor unions), UNE (national union of students, led by the Communist Party) and organizations for homeless and landless people. These demonstrations were against not only the right-wing opposition who wants the impeachment, but they were also against the conservative president of the House of Representatives Eduardo Cunha and the conservative ministers of Dilma administration, including the Minister of Finance Joaquim Levy. These demonstrations were not pro-government. They were against impeachment and against the right-wing opposition. Even members of the PSOL, the left-wing opposition party, participated.

It is very easy to see the difference of the demonstrations. Most of the right-wing protesters wear yellow T-shirts. Almost all of them are white and belong to the middle/upper class. Even in Salvador, city where >70% of the population is black, almost all of the pro-impeachment protesters were white.
Most of the left-wing protesters wear red T-shirts. There are many black and white, poor and middle class people among them.

Today, the Public Prosecutor accused Eduardo Cunha of participating in the Petrobras corruption scandal too. He was an ally of the Workers Party until 2010. This is not good news for the right-wing opposition, who needs him as an ally to vote for the impeachment in the House.

There is no evidence that Dilma Rousseff participated in the scandal. The most important leaders of her party participated. But according to the Constitution, only when the president commits a crime during her term, the impeachment is applicable. So, if it is based on the Petrobras scandal, the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff would violate the Constitution.

Angela Merkel visited Brazil today. I don't think that the German Chancellor believes that the impeachment of the Brazilian president will take place. If she believes so, she would have not visited Brazil.

[buritobr]

There were probably 40k demonstrators against the impeachment in São Paulo and 10k in Rio de Janeiro.

99% of the Brazilian population did not participate in neither pro nor anti impeachment demonstrations.

[buritobr]

Middle class elite yellow shirts
http://g1.globo.com/rio-de-janeiro/noticia/2015/08/manifestantes-protestam-contra-o-governo-em-copacabana-no-rio.html

Populist red shirts
http://g1.globo.com/rio-de-janeiro/noticia/2015/08/manifestantes-protestam-em-defesa-da-presidente-dilma-no-centro-do-rio.html


Yes, Collor is also under investigation. I feel like I am living in the 1990s again.

[buritobr]

In this weekend, 7 million students answered the ENEM, which is the admission test for the public universities (the Brazilian SAT)
There was a reading question which used a Simone de Beauvoir text. Because of this question, far right politicians accused the government of using this exam for "marxist indoctrination".
The far right is suffering mental disorder.

[buritobr]

In this week, for the first time, the red shirts demonstrations (anti-impeachment) outnumbered the yellow shirts demonstrations (pro-impeachment). The red demonstration had 55,000 people in São Paulo. The yellow demonstration had 40,000 people.
According to Datafolha poll, 65% of the Brazilians endorse the impeachment. However, the opinion of the people who don't endorse is stronger. In 1992, 75% of the Brazilians endorsed the impeachment of Fernando Collor. However, in 1992, the former Collor supporters of 1989 (business, mass media) endorsed the impeachment. In 2015, the former Dilma supporters of 2014 (labor unions) disapprove Dilma's administration, but do not endorse the impeachment. The whole organized civil society in Brazil endorsed Collor's impeachment in 1992. In 2015, only half the organized civil society is endorsing Dilma's impeachment. Fiesp (the most important business organization from São Paulo) is endorsing the impeachment. OAB (the Brazilian lawyers association endorsed the impeachment in 1992, but not in 2015).
Although Dilma's approval rate is very low, this is not a justification for the impeachment, since Brazil has a presidential, and not a parliamentary system.
On Friday, the Minister of Finance Joaquim Levy, the "Chicago Boy", was fired. The new Minister Nelson Barbosa is more endorsed by the left. Although he is a leftist, Barbosa is a serious keynesian, and not a stupid keynesian, like some Brazilian left-wing economists.

Other news in this week: former president of PSDB Eduardo Azeredo was sentenced to 20 years in prison, because of a scandal that happened in 1998 (use of money from public companies in election campaign) which was very similar with the scandal of the PT in 2005 (although the PT's scandal was bigger because there was vote buying in the Congress, not only money in election campaign). Marcos Valério was the guy who was the bridge for the money between the public companies and the election campaigns in both scandals: the PSDB' scandal of 1998 and the PT' scandal of 2005. He was already sentenced because of the scandal of 2005.

[buritobr]

Datafolha poll for 2018 (very early)

Aécio Neves 26%
Lula da Silva 20%
Marina Silva 19%
Ciro Gomes 6%
Jair Bolsonaro 4%
Luciana Genro 2%
Eduardo Paes 1%
Eduardo Jorge 1%

[buritobr]

Today, Dilma Rousseff completed one year of the second term. So, she completed five years in the office. She overtook Eurico Gaspar Dutra, Juscelino Kubitschek, Ernesto Geisel and José Sarney, who had single five year term. Now, she is the fifth longest ruling president, behind Getúlio Vargas (who rules 15 years as a dictator and 3,5 as a democratic president), Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Lula (who completed two four year term) and Figueiredo (who had a six year single term).

[buritobr]

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/04/americas/former-brazil-president-lula-question/index.html

[buritobr]

"Marx and Hegel"
The hottest topic today

[buritobr]

It is frightening what is happening in Brazil

I understand that the people have many motives to be very angry with Dilma's administration. I understand the demonstrations. But the demonstrators should respect the rights of the ones who don't agree with them.

In São Paulo, a man suffered physical violence because he was wearing a red T-shirt.
A girl was hit because when she was walking, a demonstrator asked her to join the protest and carry a Brazilian flag. She refused and said that she didn't agree with the protest. Some demonstrators called her names: communist, "petista".

The military police is under control of the state governments. The governor of São Paulo is Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB), an opponent of Dilma Rousseff. Usually, the riot police of São Paulo is very violent to anti-state government protests. But today, the riot police allowed the anti-Dilma demonstrators to block Avenida Paulista (one of the busiest avenues of São Paulo) because the riot police supports the protest.

[buritobr]

More pictures of the anti-impeachment red shirts demonstrations which took place in many Brazilian cities on March 18th.
http://www.jornalggn.com.br/noticia/atos-pela-democracia-espalhados-pelo-brasil

Only in the Northeast the red shirts outnumbered the pro impeachment yellow shirts, whose demonstrations took place on March 13th. However, the numbers of red shirts were relevant.

[buritobr]

The PMDB is planning to implement Washington Consensus policies in a Temer's administration. Probably, Armínio Fraga will be his Minister of Finance. He would be Aécio Neves' minister.
I don't think a non-elected government has legitimacy to implement these radical changes. It would be not wrong to say that this political change would look like a coup d'estat.
A government which comes to the power after a new election would have more legitimacy. If the people want Washington Consensus policies, the people will vote for a candidate that supports these policies. But, maybe, the supporters of the Washington Consensus, who are endorsing the impeachment, fear that Ciro Gomes could win a direct election. That's why they are rejecting the new election.
A constitutional amendment which establishes the recall (like the one who elected Schwarznegger in California) would be a much more democratic solution for the Brazilian political crisis than the impeachment.

Besides, even the supporters of the impeachment consider that the violation of the budget law is a weak legal argument. But they consider that the Petrobras scandal is a strong moral argument. According to they, after the scandal, PT could not hold the Palácio do Planalto anymore. But if this logic is true, Temer's PMDB and PP could not hold the Palácio do Planalto too.

[buritobr]

My text about the weakening of the democratic institutions in Brazil

http://www.trincheiras.com.br/2016/03/o-retrocesso-a-uma-democracia-racionada/

In Portuguese

[buritobr]

Brazilian economist Laura Carvalho explaining in her colum in New York Times why the Rousseff's impeachment was a coup d'stat

http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2016/04/18/in-brazil-a-house-cleaning-or-a-coup/the-ousting-of-brazilian-president-dilma-rousseff-constitutes-a-coup

[buritobr]

This week, the Legislative Assembly of the state of Alagoas approved an act which can punish teachers who support their political views in the classroom. Assemblies in other states are discussing this kind of act too. There is a proposal in the federal Chamber of Deputies too. They are influenced by far right lobbies which say that there is "marxist indoctrination" at schools. Religious fundamentalists support this kind of law. They want to ban pro-LGBT education. They say that "gender ideology" is evil.

Brazil is moving back to the Dark Age.

[buritobr]

My long analisys of what went wront with the Workers' Party (PT) and what went wrong with the PT's opposition.
In Portuguese
http://www.trincheiras.com.br/2016/05/pt-por-que-deu-pt/

.

[buritobr]

Michel Temer's Ministry of Justice is Alexandre de Moraes, former Secretary of Public Security of the state of São Paulo during Geraldo Alckmin's administration (PSDB). In this administration, the riot police used to be very violent against students' demonstrations.
Well, Temer was not elected president, he has the intention to cut social expenditure and make labor legislation more "flexible". We can imagine why did he choose his guy to be his minister...

[buritobr]

Pictures of the anti-Temer rally that took place yesterday at Cinelândia, Rio de Janeiro. Maybe, 15k people were there.
http://www.trincheiras.com.br/2016/05/1023/

There were speeches of the representatives Jandira Feghalli (PCdoB), Jean Wyllys and Marcelo Freixo (PSOL), leaders of students' organizations, the leader of the homeless people's movement.

[buritobr]

The cast and crew of Aquarius, a highly-regarded Brazilian film in Cannes, held aloft banners proclaiming ‘A coup took place in Brazil’ and ‘We will resist’ at the official première

http://www.theguardian.com/film/2016/may/17/brazil-is-not-a-democracy-aquarius-premiere-cannes-red-carpet-protest

.

[buritobr]

No good News for Michel Temer and Romero Jucá

[buritobr]

I think that a new election is the best solution for the political crisis.

But a new election can take place only if both Dilma Rousseff and Michel Temer resign. Or if Michel Temer resign after the end of Dilma's impeachment process.
If he resign until December 31th 2016 (first half of the term), the new election will be direct. If he resign after December 31th 2016, the Congress will vote for the new president.

Michel Temer will resign only if there is a big pressure.
I think that, unfortunately, he will be the president until December 31th 2018.

[buritobr]

Today, after one month of Temer's administration, the first opinion poll was published

Your view on Temer's administration
11.3% positive
30.2% regular
28.0% negative
30.5% don't know

Do you approve Temer's administration?
33.8% approve
40.4% disapprove

Temer's administration is
54.8% equal to Dilma's
20.1% better than Dilma's
14.9% worse than Dilma's

The corruption in Temer's administration will be
46.6% equal than it was in the Dilma's administration
28.3% smaller
18.6% bigger

Was Dilma's impeachment a correct decision?
62.4% yes
33.0% no

Should a new election take place in 2016?
50.3% yes
46.1% no


These numbers are not bad for Michel Temer. Pro-Temer brainwashing made by Globo Network is working...

[buritobr]

Another opinion poll
Ibope 24-27th June, 2016

Evaluation of Temer's administration
13% good/very good
36% regular
39% bad/very bad

Approval
31% approve
53% disapprove

[buritobr]

Eduardo Cunha resigned today. He is not the president of the House anymore. But he is still a representative. Maybe, there was an agreement with his allies so that he could resign without losing his term as a representative.
Eduardo Cunha met Michel Temer in Temer's office last week.