The Great Brazil Topic

[DanPrazeres]

Everything is very crazy these days

[DanPrazeres]

Things are going REALLY crazy these days. CHUPA KEVIN SPACEY

[DanPrazeres]

Explain what's happening in the Ciro Gomes video?

Someone is protesting in front of Ciro's house insultes Lula, he says "Lula is a sh**t".

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PROS is a random party, he will continue existing because is a good business. Some other politician will "rent" it ant it's fine.

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Well, like I said, things are a bit crazy in here. Almost all the presidential line of succession is contaminated.

[DanPrazeres]

And the PMDB got out of the government.

[DanPrazeres]

3- There are many reforms I'd like to see. Here are them:

a) The most important one for me is the creation of a performance clause like the one used by Germany's Bundestag. Unfortunately in 2006 the Supreme Court decided that a performance clause created a few years earlier violated the Constitution - it's widely considered one of the worst decisions the Supreme Court has ever made. If a new performance clause were approved by Congress today, I think the Supreme Court would uphold its constitutionality, but you never know.

b) On elections, local alliances should be the same as of national alliances. The fact that local alliances can be different from national ones causes fragmentation and take cohesion out of the system.

c) End the proportional system to elect Congressman. I'm in favor of a purely district system like the one used in the UK, but wouldn't be opposed to a system that combines district voting to proportional voting like the one from Germany.

d) Adopt a truly proportional division of Federal Congressmen between states. Under Brazil's Constitution, there's a ceiling of 8 Congressmen and a roof of 70 Congressmen a State can have. This leads to an aberration where a tiny State like Roraima has one Congressmen for each 60 thousand people, while in State with a large population like São Paulo there's one Congressmen for each 600 thousand people. Due to this rule, there's a significant democracy gap on the largest states, which are significantly underrepresented in the House of Representatives.

e) Force Legislators to resign their seats if they take an office on the Executive. It's common in Brazil the appointment of Legislators to cabinet positions in order to build political support among his peers. With those reforms, I think this problem would disappear, as no Legislator would make such a move unless he were appointed to a top cabinet position.

f) Term limits for Legislators. Plus, harder term limits for the Executive (limit politicians to 2 terms, absolute).

I agree with e and f.

I think:
a) Performance clause will limit the Congress to a few parties, the same big parties that not represent the people. To reduce the numbers of parties things like television time and party fund shoul be revised
b) aliances in proportional system should be banned, IMO
c) districtal vote in Brasil will be very complicated because of the question of the indivualism thing
d) São Paulo will pratically run the country, and historically it didn't work

So

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It has a lot of diferent thousands of views, but the people who can change the system (congresmen) uses only one: how they will maintain their power. Unhappily, a lot of them are oporttunists about it. In times of crisis, per example, they say things about parlamentarism or ends reelection for executive.

[DanPrazeres]

Was it a tactical error for Moro to go after Lula by releasing that audio transcript?

It certainly made the investigation appear more blatantly partisan, but I think it is too soon to say if it was an error.

He had to apologize. And Supreme Court ministers didn't like his attitude, as seen in yesterday's judgement about whom is responsible for Lula's process (that stayed in Supreme Court).

[DanPrazeres]

That's funny:

http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/The-Man-Who-Wants-to-Impeach-Rousseff-Named-in-Panama-Papers--20160404-0025.html

Well, he is in almost every list about offshore accounts and things that envolves money in other countries.

[DanPrazeres]

Yesterday, Congressman Jovair Arantes (PTB/GO) presented his report to the impeachment commission, where he recommended opening proceedings against Dilma on the Senate. The commission will vote his report on Monday, when it's expected to pass fairly easily. Then it'll be submitted to the floor of the House.

Over the last few days, the government seemed to gain some ground against the impeachment as offers to undecided voters got more and more aggressive. Those last 24 hours were largely unfavorable to it, though. The report presented yesterday was very tough on the government, even more than expected. Plus, today it was learned that executives from a large constructor called AG told and proved to the feds that their large donations to Dilma's campaign in 2014 were in fact generous bribes. IMO, it's now likely that the Superior Electoral Tribunal will vacate the results of the 2014 election due to this.

The new election depends on the new president of the Superior Electoral Tribunal, Gilmar Mendes, who has a quite clear alignment with the oposition and the PSDB. But as PSDB isn't the favourite in a election now (Marina Silva is), maybe it might take a time.

[DanPrazeres]

Today it has "leaked" an audio of a Whatsapp group that is just the speech of VP Temer talking as if the impeachment already had happened.

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2016/04/1759725-temer-divulga-audio-em-que-fala-como-se-impeachment-estivesse-aprovado.shtml

What a week to be brazilian.

[DanPrazeres]

We have our Wall

The left/north side is for the the people pro government and the right/south is for the anti-government.

[DanPrazeres]

And the government is reversing some votes. Temer went to São Paulo yesterday and would be there until tomorrow to watch the votation there, today morning he came back to Brasília to negotiate more.

[DanPrazeres]

Bloomberg) -- Number of lawmakers who would vote for impeachment fell to 340 from 342 earlier, according to Folha de S.Paulo survey.
Lower house deputy chief Waldir Maranhao announced he would change his vote and be against impeachment
Lawmaker Clarissa Garotinho requested maternity leave and won’t vote
Link to story
Number of pro-impeachment votes also fell in Estado survey, to 344, and in O Globo, to 342

The opposition has recovered the ground it lost yesterday today and most newsources count at least 347 votes for the opposition. Most opposition leaders claim they have at least 360 votes. I'd say it's likely that the impeachment will pass the House, but no done deal until the 342nd vote is cast. No one will sleep in Brasília tonight.

Well, I will :lol:

The government says they have at least 181. And there is a movement "Neither Dilma neither Cunha" that will not vote as a protest. But no one knows what will really happen.

[DanPrazeres]

Wait, it seems PT only has 60 members in the Congress now.  I recall they won 70 seats in the 2014 elections.  What happen to the other 10?  Did they defect to another party?

Yes, last month there were a partidary window to change.

[DanPrazeres]

So it will be acting President Temer that will be kicking off the 2016 Olympics it seems.

We still have the Senate.

Also, when will the new elections be?

The next general is in 2018. But PT already says that will start asking for new elections, that can happens together with the municipals elections in october.

[DanPrazeres]

Maybe the PT will turn around and stab Acting President Temer in the back and vote to impeach him.

They are already asking it since last week

[DanPrazeres]

Here's what a Temer cabinet may look like if some rumors are to be believed (plus, a few guesses of mine):

Chief of Staff: Eliseu Padilha (PMDB/RS)
Government Secretary: Moreira Franco (PMDB/SP)
Finances: Henrique Meirelles (PSD/SP)
Central Bank: Ilan Goldfajn (Ind/RJ)
Planning/Budget: José Serra (PSDB/SP)
Foreign Affairs: Sergio Silva do Amaral (Ind/SP)
Defense: Nelson Jobim (PMDB/RS)
Development, Industries and Foreign Commerce: Paulo Skaf (PMDB/SP)
Justice: Carlos Ayres Britto (Ind/SE)
Education: Ricardo Paes de Barros (Ind/SP)
Health: David Uip (Ind/SP)
Labor and Pensions: Paulo "Paulinho" Pereira (SD/SP)
National Integration: Geddel Vieira Lima (PMDB/BA)
Agriculture: Ronaldo Caiado (DEM/GO)

It would work well for the Republic of São Paulo :lol: . But for the congress it won't last 2 weeks

[DanPrazeres]

According to sources the Senate will decide on May 11th if it'll open the impeachment process against Dilma.

That's a long wait. Thank God I'm not a Brazillian who hates Dilma-I'd be going nuts for a month.

Yeah, and apparently that is considered "early".

Renan (senate president) said today that the process will finish only in September (the 6 month deadline until Dilma can come back). Yes, it is a possibility that Dilma return to presidency, a weak, but it's a possibility because in 6 month everything can happen, even nothing.

[DanPrazeres]

Wow, I'm surprised she still has any allied parties. Except maybe the Communists.

It's Ciro Gomes.

[DanPrazeres]

So what about the movement to declare the election of Dilma-Temer illegitimate and immediate reelections? Is that still going to happen?

Today the Electoral Superior Tribunal authorized the Federal Police to get crime proofs of the campaign.

Well, it depends on Gilmar Mendes, actual president of the tribunal. So, without other pressures like protests or the media, it depends on what PSDB or Serra wants (because they are very best friends).

[DanPrazeres]

Is there any chance the wonderful Jair Bolsonaro makes it a second round?

I'm not actually sure that's even a desirable outcome (since I'd rather the top two contenders compete for his support).

After last sunday, nobody would look for his support in the clear way. Even if he gets 10% or 15%, it's very complicated to PSDB explain support a man that supports torturers of the dictadure that they fought against.

And if he wins, it will be time to take guns because democracy exploded (and i'm talking serious).

[DanPrazeres]

Do you think Serra might try to run again? He and Geraldo are well past their expiration dates, even if they are both pretty good, but they clearly both want the job.

PSDB-SP is in civil war between Alckmin and Serra factions. Then Serra is supporting Temer believing that he can jump to PMDB to get presidential nomination. Alckmin is in fear of having a powerful PMDB to oppose him in São Paulo politics.
But a surprise can happen as Henrique Meirelles (PSD) is now the favourite to be Minister of Treasury. He met Temer along Romero Jucá (eternal Government Leader in Senate and acting President of PMDB) and former minister Gilberto Kassab (PSD). He asked full control of economic policy to accept.

So Aecio's out, then? What about Aecio, anyway? Is he clean?

He is in the Lista of Furnas, so his name is mentioned some times in Lava Jato. And Aécio's faction of PSDB is against Alckmin and Serra

[DanPrazeres]

Is there any chance the wonderful Jair Bolsonaro makes it a second round?

I'm not actually sure that's even a desirable outcome (since I'd rather the top two contenders compete for his support).

You're supportive of a literal apologist for tyrants and torturers? The guy who dedicated his impeachment vote to the guy who was in charge of torturing the current president?

He seems bizarrely clean for a Brazilian politician and he stands up against both criminals and other PC stufff. I don't really care that much about his views on history; I've personally heard a lot of mixed stuff about the military period.

Elected officials have too much civility anyways.

His brother was phantom employee of São Paulo's Assembly.

He was almost expelled from the army because he tried to put bombs in military towns.

He said that FHC deserved to be shot multiple times.

He dedicated his vote to the one known as the greatest torturer in the military dictatorship. We had a Truth National Commission, and Ulstra was one of the top guilties. I don't want to put pictures of his tortures, hope you understand.

[DanPrazeres]

The idea of polling-- surveying, really-- the legislature strikes me as rather novel, at least from an American context.

Even if Dilma is considering new elections, there still isn't a mechanism under which they could be held, right?

If a PEC - Amendment to the constitution pass, it could happen. But it could be contested in supreme tribunal.

And there is a chance that both she and Temer would resign, but she has to combine with the russians (in this case, Temer and all the opposition).

[DanPrazeres]

The works of the impeachment commission have finally started. Sen. Anastasia will definitely produce a pro-impeachment report, which will easily pass the commission (a 15-6 or 16-5 vote is the most likely outcome). This vote will take place on May 6th. Then the report will be submitted to the floor of the Senate, where a simple majority will be required to formally trigger an impeachment process against Dilma, automatically suspending her from office for up to 180 days. This vote is expected to happen on May 12th, and it's believed that Temer would probably take oath on May 13th (but some want him to take oath on May 12th, even if an earlier vote on the floor becomes necessary, because they don't like the idea of Temer taking oath on a Friday the 13th*).

*curious trivia: there's a long living hoax here in Brazil that Michel Temer is a Satanist, something that would only be reinforced if he takes oath on a Friday the 13th. While this is _{(most likely)} a false rumor solely based on the fact that Temer is a Freemason, this hoax is still seen on many places on the internet, and I'm sure Temer wouldn't want to reinforce it.

Muahuahuhuahuauha

[DanPrazeres]

Yeah, the Senate vote isn't happening, apparently.

Renan said that will continue the process normally.
But the Supreme Court should to judge the question (before wednesday).
And Maranhão can be expelled from his party, what would can facilitate a new election of the direction of the Deputy chamber. But it would be a bad thing to Cunha. So, maybe won't happen (and probably this action of Maranhão was under orders of Cunha to mess the things, so everything can happen).