The Great Brazil Topic

[ag]

Not good.

I think Dilma is horribly incompetent and should not have been elected. But incompetence should not be grounds for impeachment. This is going to hurt Brazilian presidency long term.

[ag]

What are "substitution deputies"? Could someone please explain that?

I am not certain about Brazil, but in other Latin American countries they frequently elect a "suplente": a person who would become a deputy if the real deputy has to resign/dies/whatever. In Mexico these are typically elected as a package: there would be the name of suplente somewhere on the same ballot.

[ag]

The only way out of this mess that would have any chance of restoring legitimacy of governance is an early election. Ok, they have the Olympics, fine. Olympics will be closing on Aug. 21st. Campaign should start on Aug. 22nd. And till that a purely apolitical technocratic cabinet should be appointed, on condition of not approving any major policies or expenditures. Anything else is just too dangerous.

[ag]

The only way out of this mess that would have any chance of restoring legitimacy of governance is an early election. Ok, they have the Olympics, fine. Olympics will be closing on Aug. 21st. Campaign should start on Aug. 22nd. And till that a purely apolitical technocratic cabinet should be appointed, on condition of not approving any major policies or expenditures. Anything else is just too dangerous.

I believe the constitution neither allows for early elections, nor for a constitutional amendment to allow for them.

I do not believe that to be true. If I get the relevant provision right this is it:

Article 81

Art. 81. In case the positions of the President and the Vice President of the Republic are vacant, election shall be held within 90 days of the vacancy in the latter position.

1. If the vacancies are produced during the last two years of the presidential term, the election for both positions shall be held 30 days after the latter vacancy, by the National Congress, as provided for by law.

2.  In every case, those elected shall compelte the term of their predecessors.

The last Brazilian election was held on October 4/26 2014, Dilma started her second term on Jan. 1 2015, the term is 4 years. If both she and Temer were to resign tomorrow, elections would have to be held within 90 days. No problem whatsoever.

[ag]

I think that a new election is the best solution for the political crisis.

But a new election can take place only if both Dilma Rousseff and Michel Temer resign. Or if Michel Temer resign after the end of Dilma's impeachment process.
If he resign until December 31th 2016 (first half of the term), the new election will be direct. If he resign after December 31th 2016, the Congress will vote for the new president.

Michel Temer will resign only if there is a big pressure.
I think that, unfortunately, he will be the president until December 31th 2018.

Well, there will be pressure. At least as much pressure as Dilma faced. The question is, when is it coming to head: before or after the end of the year. It is hard to see how he survives to the end of the current term once sh**t truly hits the fan.

I have a suggestion. They should somehow get Pele into Congress, have him appointed Speaker, have Temer resign and have Pele be president for the Olympics, with election happening shortly thereafter. This is, probably, the only way Brazil avoids being a scray laughing stock right at the moment all the attention is on it.

[ag]

Without any political sympathy to Dilma or PT, I have to say that I am very disappointed, though not surprized. Dilma should have been defeated on election day. This is a misuse of the impeachment clauses of the constitution, which will make Brazil both more corrupt and less governable. I would not call this a coup - I concede, it was legally done. But it is dramatic failure of statesmanship by Brazil´s political class.

Frankly, after this, it would be better to abolish the executive presidency with a proper constitutional reform. From now on, in any case, Brazilian president serves at the pleasure of the parliament. So be it. But it should be done properly: the constitution should be changed accordingly.