Why Florida is Still King...

[Politico]

Obama could win the battle with regards to total quantity of swing-states won (e.g., Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania), but look at what happens if Romney holds onto the McCain states and only picks up a handful of swing-states (i.e., New Hampshire, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia and that one EV in Nebraska):

Obama - 268
Romney - 241
Florida - 29

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

We've known this for a while.

[King]

That's like saying:

Texas is now king!

There is no way Florida will be too close to call and a state like Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina or New Hampshire be in Romney's column.   Florida being that close likely means Obama already won the popular vote by 2-3 points.  Similarly if a "swing state" like Michigan becomes the decider, then Obama has probably already lost Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio and the election.

[greenforest32]

but look at what happens if Romney holds onto the McCain states and only picks up a handful of swing-states (i.e., New Hampshire, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia and that one EV in Nebraska):

That's pretty much all of them...

Romney is not going to win all those.

[Politico]

but look at what happens if Romney holds onto the McCain states and only picks up a handful of swing-states (i.e., New Hampshire, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia and that one EV in Nebraska):

That's pretty much all of them...

Romney is not going to win all those.

Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia are traditional Republican bastions in every sense.The only one that does not generally go Republican is Ohio, which generally goes whichever way the nation goes (which, more often than not the past forty years, has been Republican). New Hampshire has swung back to the GOP column. It is the haven for anti-tax New Englanders for a reason. GOP now has a five point edge in registration there, and independents are extremely anti-tax (even many Democrats there are).

Romney winning those is not that far-fetched.

It may be far-fetched to have the Democratic candidate sitting in the 260s with Florida too close to call, but it happened twelve years ago. The scenario could unfold if polls a couple of days before Election Day showed Obama trailing by five points, or such, and the campaign decided to fold on competing for Ohio like Gore did in 2000 in order to ensure securing Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, etc.

[King]

but look at what happens if Romney holds onto the McCain states and only picks up a handful of swing-states (i.e., New Hampshire, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia and that one EV in Nebraska):

That's pretty much all of them...

Romney is not going to win all those.

Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia are traditional Republican bastions in every sense.The only one that does not generally go Republican is Ohio, which generally goes whichever way the nation goes (which, more often than not the past forty years, has been Republican). New Hampshire has swung back to the GOP column. It is the anti-tax haven for New Englanders for a reason. GOP now has a five point edge in registration there, and independents are extremely anti-tax (even many Democrats there are).

Romney winning those is not that far-fetched.

It may be far-fetched to have the Democratic candidate sitting in the 260s with Florida too close to call, but it happened twelve years ago.

There is no logical argument you can make that leads to such a split result.  Either Virginia is a Republican bastion and New Hampshire a Democratic bastion, or New Hampshire switched to Republican and Virginia switched to Democrat.   Both states have the exact same trail of evidence.

[Politico]

but look at what happens if Romney holds onto the McCain states and only picks up a handful of swing-states (i.e., New Hampshire, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia and that one EV in Nebraska):

That's pretty much all of them...

Romney is not going to win all those.

Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia are traditional Republican bastions in every sense.The only one that does not generally go Republican is Ohio, which generally goes whichever way the nation goes (which, more often than not the past forty years, has been Republican). New Hampshire has swung back to the GOP column. It is the anti-tax haven for New Englanders for a reason. GOP now has a five point edge in registration there, and independents are extremely anti-tax (even many Democrats there are).

Romney winning those is not that far-fetched.

It may be far-fetched to have the Democratic candidate sitting in the 260s with Florida too close to call, but it happened twelve years ago.

There is no logical argument you can make that leads to such a split result.  Either Virginia is a Republican bastion and New Hampshire a Democratic bastion, or New Hampshire switched to Republican and Virginia switched to Democrat.   Both states have the exact same trail of evidence.

New Hampshire has a five point registration edge for Republicans. It's clearly not a Democratic bastion. You cannot find a more anti-tax state north of the Mason-Dixon line. In comparison, Virginia has gone to Democrats once in the past 11 presidential elections and has a popular Republican governor at the moment who is at the top of Romney's VP list. Furthermore, Obama had only 52.6% of the vote in Virginia about a month and a half after the worst financial crisis in decades. Do you think another financial crisis is going to happen in September 2012, giving Obama the same type of positive boost? of course not.

I don't know where Democrats get this absurd notion that because Obama won 52 and 49 percent points in Virginia and North Carolina that those states are unlikely to go to the Republican challenger this time, despite the economy being worse now than it was four years ago. I would bet heavily against Obama winning those two states in particular, along with Indiana.

This time, there is no old and erratic John McCain, no financial crisis to blame on Bush and the Republicans, and no Sarah Palin to make fun of. There is no "hope and change" either. Nationally, these four factors alone have to knock off AT LEAST three to four percentage points from Obama's 2008 results and put at least three to four points in Romney's column. Do that nationally and in Florida, and you're probably looking at a state that is too close to call until 95% to 100% of the votes are in.

[King]

New Hampshire has a five point registration edge for Republicans. It's clearly not a Democratic bastion. In comparison, Virginia has gone to Democrats once in the past 11 presidential elections and has a popular Republican governor at the moment who is at the top of Romney's VP list. Furthermore, Obama had only 52.6% of the vote in Virginia about a month and a half after the worst financial crisis in decades. Do you think another financial crisis is going to happen in September 2012, giving Obama the same type of positive boost? of course not.

I don't know where Democrats get this absurd notion that because Obama won 52 and 49 percent points in Virginia and North Carolina that those states are unlikely to go to the challenger this time, despite the economy being worse now than it was four years ago.

New Hampshire has a Democratic Governor and has only gone Republican once in the last 5.  As I said, any argument you can use to say NH is one way is exactly true of Virginia in the opposite direction.

You're the one tossing out absurd notions.  The idea that Obama can win Virginia is based on polling.  If you toss polling out the window, then you lose the only evidence that shows Romney can win New Hampshire.

[Adam Griffin]

New Hampshire has been heavily Republican at the state level and that factors in to the GOP having an edge over Democrats in voter registration. It doesn't mean that NH Republicans want a Republican in the White House just because they prefer Republican state control at present. There's definitely a chunk of the GOP that will support Romney and it's possible it could flip given the right circumstances, but I still think Romney's prospects there are weak.

[Politico]

New Hampshire has a five point registration edge for Republicans. It's clearly not a Democratic bastion. In comparison, Virginia has gone to Democrats once in the past 11 presidential elections and has a popular Republican governor at the moment who is at the top of Romney's VP list. Furthermore, Obama had only 52.6% of the vote in Virginia about a month and a half after the worst financial crisis in decades. Do you think another financial crisis is going to happen in September 2012, giving Obama the same type of positive boost? of course not.

I don't know where Democrats get this absurd notion that because Obama won 52 and 49 percent points in Virginia and North Carolina that those states are unlikely to go to the challenger this time, despite the economy being worse now than it was four years ago.

New Hampshire has a Democratic Governor and has only gone Republican once in the last 5.  As I said, any argument you can use to say NH is one way is exactly true of Virginia in the opposite direction.

Governor John Lynch would be derided as a DINO if he ran for president. He is about as anti-tax as any Democrat in the nation. We are talking about a state that proudly displays, "LIVE FREE OR DIE" on its license plate. It is easily the most anti-tax state in the northeast, possibly even the entire nation. In case you haven't noticed, social issues do not matter anymore. Furthermore, you are completely discounting Romney's northeastern roots, which will give him an edge in New Hampshire that McCain and Bush lacked.

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It appears Obama can win Virginia if you only look at polls, but I think they better focus elsewhere. McDonnell will be the running mate if Virginia polling is still close in June/July. In case you have not noticed, Romney and his team are brutally efficient and pragmatic.

[King]

New Hampshire has a five point registration edge for Republicans. It's clearly not a Democratic bastion. In comparison, Virginia has gone to Democrats once in the past 11 presidential elections and has a popular Republican governor at the moment who is at the top of Romney's VP list. Furthermore, Obama had only 52.6% of the vote in Virginia about a month and a half after the worst financial crisis in decades. Do you think another financial crisis is going to happen in September 2012, giving Obama the same type of positive boost? of course not.

I don't know where Democrats get this absurd notion that because Obama won 52 and 49 percent points in Virginia and North Carolina that those states are unlikely to go to the challenger this time, despite the economy being worse now than it was four years ago.

New Hampshire has a Democratic Governor and has only gone Republican once in the last 5.  As I said, any argument you can use to say NH is one way is exactly true of Virginia in the opposite direction.

Governor John Lynch would be derided as a DINO if he ran for president. He is about as anti-tax as any Democrat in the nation. Furthermore, you are completely discounting Romney's northeastern roots, which will give him an edge in New Hampshire that McCain and Bush lacked.

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Obama can win Virginia, but I think they better focus elsewhere. McDonnell will be the running mate if Virginia polling is still close in June/July.

I'm not discounting them.  I believe he will win New Hampshire barring an Obama landslide.   I do not believe he will win Virginia (and Ohio) without carrying Florida first.   This was the premise of your thread.

[pbrower2a]

Obama - 268
Romney - 251
Ohio - 18


This is the most likely nailbiter.

[Politico]

New Hampshire has a five point registration edge for Republicans. It's clearly not a Democratic bastion. In comparison, Virginia has gone to Democrats once in the past 11 presidential elections and has a popular Republican governor at the moment who is at the top of Romney's VP list. Furthermore, Obama had only 52.6% of the vote in Virginia about a month and a half after the worst financial crisis in decades. Do you think another financial crisis is going to happen in September 2012, giving Obama the same type of positive boost? of course not.

I don't know where Democrats get this absurd notion that because Obama won 52 and 49 percent points in Virginia and North Carolina that those states are unlikely to go to the challenger this time, despite the economy being worse now than it was four years ago.

New Hampshire has a Democratic Governor and has only gone Republican once in the last 5.  As I said, any argument you can use to say NH is one way is exactly true of Virginia in the opposite direction.

Governor John Lynch would be derided as a DINO if he ran for president. He is about as anti-tax as any Democrat in the nation. Furthermore, you are completely discounting Romney's northeastern roots, which will give him an edge in New Hampshire that McCain and Bush lacked.

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Obama can win Virginia, but I think they better focus elsewhere. McDonnell will be the running mate if Virginia polling is still close in June/July.

I'm not discounting them.  I believe he will win New Hampshire barring an Obama landslide.   I do not believe he will win Virginia (and Ohio) without carrying Florida first.   This was the premise of your thread.

Virginia will either appear to be solidly in the Romney column in June/July, or or Romney will put it solidly there by selecting McDonnell as his running mate. In case you have not noticed, Romney and his team are brutally efficient and pragmatic.

Here's another thing: Less votes to count in Ohio. Even if Romney slightly wins Ohio with the same percentage as in Florida, Florida will be called later due to its larger volume of votes and the fact the panhandle region closes later than polls close in Ohio, I believe.

[King]

Here's another thing: Less votes to count in Ohio. Even if Romney slightly wins Ohio with the same percentage as in Florida, Florida will be called later due to its larger volume of votes and the fact the panhandle region closes later than polls close in Ohio, I believe.

Perhaps thirty years ago.  Calls are made on exit polls and both campaigns will probably advocate early voting like in 2008, meaning we'll see vote counts finish faster than ever.

Regardless, that doesn't mean Florida decided the election.  That just meant they were slower at certifying it.

[Landslide Lyndon]

King is a state?!?!?!
And all that time I believed him being human.