Why Florida is Still King...

[King]

That's like saying:

Texas is now king!

There is no way Florida will be too close to call and a state like Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina or New Hampshire be in Romney's column.   Florida being that close likely means Obama already won the popular vote by 2-3 points.  Similarly if a "swing state" like Michigan becomes the decider, then Obama has probably already lost Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio and the election.

[King]

but look at what happens if Romney holds onto the McCain states and only picks up a handful of swing-states (i.e., New Hampshire, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia and that one EV in Nebraska):

That's pretty much all of them...

Romney is not going to win all those.

Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia are traditional Republican bastions in every sense.The only one that does not generally go Republican is Ohio, which generally goes whichever way the nation goes (which, more often than not the past forty years, has been Republican). New Hampshire has swung back to the GOP column. It is the anti-tax haven for New Englanders for a reason. GOP now has a five point edge in registration there, and independents are extremely anti-tax (even many Democrats there are).

Romney winning those is not that far-fetched.

It may be far-fetched to have the Democratic candidate sitting in the 260s with Florida too close to call, but it happened twelve years ago.

There is no logical argument you can make that leads to such a split result.  Either Virginia is a Republican bastion and New Hampshire a Democratic bastion, or New Hampshire switched to Republican and Virginia switched to Democrat.   Both states have the exact same trail of evidence.

[King]

New Hampshire has a five point registration edge for Republicans. It's clearly not a Democratic bastion. In comparison, Virginia has gone to Democrats once in the past 11 presidential elections and has a popular Republican governor at the moment who is at the top of Romney's VP list. Furthermore, Obama had only 52.6% of the vote in Virginia about a month and a half after the worst financial crisis in decades. Do you think another financial crisis is going to happen in September 2012, giving Obama the same type of positive boost? of course not.

I don't know where Democrats get this absurd notion that because Obama won 52 and 49 percent points in Virginia and North Carolina that those states are unlikely to go to the challenger this time, despite the economy being worse now than it was four years ago.

New Hampshire has a Democratic Governor and has only gone Republican once in the last 5.  As I said, any argument you can use to say NH is one way is exactly true of Virginia in the opposite direction.

You're the one tossing out absurd notions.  The idea that Obama can win Virginia is based on polling.  If you toss polling out the window, then you lose the only evidence that shows Romney can win New Hampshire.

[King]

New Hampshire has a five point registration edge for Republicans. It's clearly not a Democratic bastion. In comparison, Virginia has gone to Democrats once in the past 11 presidential elections and has a popular Republican governor at the moment who is at the top of Romney's VP list. Furthermore, Obama had only 52.6% of the vote in Virginia about a month and a half after the worst financial crisis in decades. Do you think another financial crisis is going to happen in September 2012, giving Obama the same type of positive boost? of course not.

I don't know where Democrats get this absurd notion that because Obama won 52 and 49 percent points in Virginia and North Carolina that those states are unlikely to go to the challenger this time, despite the economy being worse now than it was four years ago.

New Hampshire has a Democratic Governor and has only gone Republican once in the last 5.  As I said, any argument you can use to say NH is one way is exactly true of Virginia in the opposite direction.

Governor John Lynch would be derided as a DINO if he ran for president. He is about as anti-tax as any Democrat in the nation. Furthermore, you are completely discounting Romney's northeastern roots, which will give him an edge in New Hampshire that McCain and Bush lacked.

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Obama can win Virginia, but I think they better focus elsewhere. McDonnell will be the running mate if Virginia polling is still close in June/July.

I'm not discounting them.  I believe he will win New Hampshire barring an Obama landslide.   I do not believe he will win Virginia (and Ohio) without carrying Florida first.   This was the premise of your thread.

[King]

Here's another thing: Less votes to count in Ohio. Even if Romney slightly wins Ohio with the same percentage as in Florida, Florida will be called later due to its larger volume of votes and the fact the panhandle region closes later than polls close in Ohio, I believe.

Perhaps thirty years ago.  Calls are made on exit polls and both campaigns will probably advocate early voting like in 2008, meaning we'll see vote counts finish faster than ever.

Regardless, that doesn't mean Florida decided the election.  That just meant they were slower at certifying it.