A Higgins Trifecta: Smid/RB Collaborative TL

[RogueBeaver]

Peter Costello backers do numbers
Patricia Karvelas and Matthew Franklin
August 02, 2008

PETER Costello backers have begun sounding out Liberal MPs to gauge their support for the former treasurer to seize the Opposition leadership from Brendan Nelson.

Several MPs confirmed yesterday they had been approached by close Costello supporters asking whether they would support him as leader if he decided to scrap his plan to retire from politics and instead take on Kevin Rudd.

...

The lobbying came yesterday after it became clear throughout the past week that Dr Nelson, elected Liberal leader last year after Mr Costello indicated he planned to retire, had lost the support of his frontbench team.

Some of the Opposition Leader's supporters are promoting the idea that Mr Costello will make a comeback because they see it as a way of blocking Malcolm Turnbull from seizing the leadership.

Dr Nelson's colleagues were angry over his inability to craft and publicly explain a Coalition policy on climate change and carbon emissions trading.

It also coincides with increasing signs Mr Costello is planning a comeback, including reports his wife, Tanya, wants him to remain in politics, his decision to reject the offer of a $2 million-a-year job in London and news that the publication of his memoir will be brought forward a month to next month.

It is understood the lobbying began after The Australian published a Newspoll on Tuesday showing 41 per cent of respondents back Mr Costello as the best Opposition leader ahead of 24 per cent for Mr Turnbull and only 18per cent for Dr Nelson.

...

As Dr Nelson vowed yesterday that he was determined to lead his party to the 2010 federal election, a growing number of MPs said they were prepared to vote for Mr Costello immediately.

Some MPs believe Dr Nelson's continued leadership is damaging the party. Others say the economic slowdown is the perfect time for Mr Costello to return.

"He could win, he is the only one who can beat Rudd," one MP said. Another said he had received numerous telephone calls about the return of Mr Costello over the past two days.

Their claims are backed by the fact that some of Mr Costello's closest supporters did not return The Australian's calls yesterday.

However, one close supporter said he genuinely had no clue as to Mr Costello's intentions. "Everybody is trying to guess, but I don't think anyone knows."

Parliament House, Canberra, 3 August 2008


Dammit! Starting his day with yet another media round of leadership speculation- the umpteenth in recent days- infuriated the Opposition Leader, Brendan Nelson. He'd been elected merely 8 months earlier and already the sharks were swirling around his leadership. Indeed one unnamed Liberal source had compared him to Downer, another Liberal leader who got into trouble early and never got out of it. However Nelson felt that he had one advantage over Downer: there were divisions among his opponents over who a potential replacement would be. He for one took the Turnbull rumours more seriously than the Costello ones. Turnbull had challenged him after Costello had opted out and supposedly announced his retirement. In the party room Turnbull was always the pushy one, Costello having mostly slipped out of the public eye since the government's defeat. Yet Nelson also knew that these rumours were not coming out of nowhere: somehow Costello had to be encouraging or at least yellow-lighting them. He decided to place a few calls with certain colleagues.




As I've said publicly and privately many times, Brendan, I'm behind you and think this leadership speculation is unhealthy. However you must do something about this climate change mess, it's splitting the party and many people I've spoken to are getting quite annoyed. I'll do what I can to help, but the initiative is yours to take.

Malcolm Turnbull's words were sincere- he did want to help, but more for PR purposes than anything. After all, better to say that he tried to save his leader from himself until the last possible moment rather than being called a wrecker.



Did you see the Oz article about Peter?

Yeah, but if you asked me all that means is that his supposedly final decision isn't final. I'm hardly his best friend in the party room- I wouldn't know what he's really leaning towards. To the best of my knowledge not even his closest supporters know. Nothing should be taken for granted either way until he clears this up.



After finishing a brief conversation, Nelson hung up and dialed his deputy, Julie Bishop. He knew there was no point in trying any publicly identified Costellans such as Pyne: if they weren't picking up for journos then they probably weren't talking to anyone.

Julie, did you-

Yes, I saw that article. Like the rest of us I haven't the faintest clue what Peter's doing but you still have my support. Climate change still needs some work, as we both know- but I don't think this justifies anything like the hysteria we've been seeing in the Gallery recently. We should be keeping our eyes out since stories like this don't come out of nowhere, particularly given the people involved...

[Talleyrand]

Excellent so far! I look forward to reading the rest of it.

[Smid]

Great job, although the title is wrong - it should be RB/Smid, the idea is yours and you've done the bulk of the work! Note, that article is an except from a real article.

[RogueBeaver]

Thanks TexDem. I should have a couple of updates tomorrow, perhaps through to the leadership vote itself. More stuff on the government side post-vote- as Gillard said at the time IRL, the ALP is going to be a spectator.

[RogueBeaver]

Canberra, 29 August 2008

 

For her part Julie Bishop really did have no clue what Costello had decided, if indeed a decision had been made yet, which she doubted. In any event she was no huge fan of Turnbull but had more than enough of Nelson and hoped that Costello would change his mind and return. She was already on public record as a Costellan but wouldn't undermine her leader: above all she liked the deputy's post and wanted to stay there. Costello was her first choice, Turnbull her second- nor was she the only one who felt that way in the party room. Most of the frontbench shared the view that Nelson had to go, the only question was who would replace him. The Nationals were also worried even if renegade Sen. Barnaby Joyce was the only one to publicly express concerns about Nelson's leadership. Many Liberals felt the crisis was approaching a boiling point and would have to be resolved before year's end. In the meantime she would await further developments, ideally something concrete from either man.



Meanwhile on the Government side, Rudd and his team were sanguine about the Liberal leadership drama. From their point of view it wasn't multiple eruptions but one long one ever since Costello's aborted challenge to John Howard 2 years earlier. Like any political equation there were positives and negatives to each scenario. Turnbull was a relative moderate with whom perhaps a bipartisan agreement could be reached on climate change. Who knew, perhaps in the long run cross-party cooperation if the long-held ALP republican dream- and many of them saw 1999 as a lost battle rather than a lost war- were ever to resume its forward march. Not that such an idea was on the radar in the Government's foreseeable future. While Turnbull could appeal to moderate suburbanites he was also detached from his party's base and despised by many conservatives on ideological grounds. Most importantly of all, he was a weaker leader than Rudd. Costello was by far the Liberals' strongest prospect but in Labor eyes was weighed down by WorkChoices and interest rates. In the meantime they could only taunt and wait. Nor were they waiting for an eruption to begin the taunts. Treasurer Wayne Swan saw to that in QT only a few days later.






"Plan A over here, the leader of the opposition, is just worried about what it will mean for his leadership,"

 

"Plan B up the back, the member for Higgins, is worried how it will highlight his dreadful record when it comes to 10 interest rate rises in a row.

 

"Of course, we have Plan C, the member for Wentworth, who is smiling through gritted teeth ... (he) said interest rates were overdramatised."



 

Another Liberal anxiously awaiting leadership developments was close Costello friend Chris Pyne. Like Bishop he would back Turnbull in the event that Costello did not run, and the scuttlebutt was that Costello's final decision would come very soon- within 10 days to 2 weeks. He felt it would be sooner rather than later, depending on things developed. And like Bishop, he very much suspected what the answer would ultimately be. If Tanya's pushing him to do it, then that's a good sign. Not the ultimate sign, but a very good one nonetheless. A spousal or family veto would completely kill our chances. He decided to call Costello later that day if he hadn't heard from him yet, it had been over a week since they last directly communicated. Among other things he wanted to know whether Tony Abbott's very public barracking was his own initiative or something more than that.


Members' Hall, Suite 305, HOR, 5:21 PM




"After much thought and due consideration, I've come to a decision. In a phrase, back to the future. As I said 4 years ago I'm in for the long haul. Therefore, as of this moment you can consider me an unofficial leadership candidate. You blokes in?" Peter Costello looked across his desk at Chris Pyne and Tony Abbott, two of his top surrogates for the incipient leadership campaign.

"Absolutely. What's our plan?" Pyne was ecstatic at the decision: Finally we'll get the man we need to win government.

"Start making phone calls. Quite a few of Turnbull's people will vote for me- all the dries, plus a sizeable number of disillusioned wets, judging from C&C. That's to say, conversations and common sense. Both of you know who to call- and make sure there's no overlap unless they're exceedingly slippery. Julie will remain deputy, that goes without saying..."
As Pyne and Abbott turned to leave, Costello waved Abbott back in.

"Tony, we're all on the same team now. That's why Malcolm's going to Communications- he knows this, and he knows I'm running. Those reports about him standing aside for me didn't arise out of nowhere. I'm keeping the caucus team and shadow cabinet separate. I want a focused team, unlike the wimpy wastrels over there."

"Wimpy wastrels. I like it!"

"Now hit the phones. See you tomorrow."

Costello still had one final call to make for the day, this one outside Parliament House.


"Glenn,

Peter here. It's a go. 10 tops..."

[Talleyrand]

Great as usual.

Julie Bishop is still Treasury critic at this point, right? I wonder what sort of reshuffle Costello will do if/when he claims the leadership from Nelson. That will be interesting.

The Western Australian elections went on as they did in RL, right?

[RogueBeaver]

WA didn't change, I don't think what at this point is still speculation would affect a state result. Bishop is still at Treasury. As for reshuffling: if that happened it would be more names than numbers.

[RogueBeaver]

 

Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson calls leadership ballot after Costello talks fail

 

The Australian Staff

31 August 2008

 

 

Brendan Nelson has called a leadership spill for tomorrow at 11 AM after failed negotiations with former treasurer Peter Costello and losing the support of key caucus allies. According to multiple sources these even include Nelson's own deputy, Julie Bishop.
 
 

After a night of talks with Mr Costello, Mr Nelson announced that he would call a leadership ballot and that he would renominate.

 

He said he was “quite capable of winning this ballot tomorrow” at 11am.

 

Mr Costello confirmed his candidacy at a Parliament House press conference.

 

“I will be a candidate in tomorrow's ballot,” Mr Costello said almost immediately after Mr Nelson's remarks, but otherwise refused to comment.

 

The leadership ballot comes after a series of Newspolls showing Mr Nelson losing overwhelmingly to Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's Labor government and setting record lows in PPM polling.

 

...

 

Mr Nelson emphasized the need for Coalition unity, sharply criticizing Mr Costello for his "white-anting" of former prime minister John Howard when in government and promising a continuation of "sensible, mainstream Liberal policies which will take up to victory in 2010." After weeks of denying tensions within the Coalition partyroom over his leadership, Mr Nelson admitted that there had been Liberals who had it in their sights. "It's become apparent to me over the past little while that a sizeable number of colleagues did not accept the results of last year's spill and were prepared to do whatever was necessary in order to reverse that result. Now we are going to resolve this issue once and for all. The choice is clear, and I believe that when all is said and done my colleagues will choose to continue under my leadership."

 

...

 

Mr Nelson never enjoyed his party's wholehearted backing and his collapse in the polls after repeated gaffes on climate change policy further stiffened his opponents' resolve. However until approximately 2 weeks ago, they were unsure whether Mr Costello or former Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull would be the anti-Nelson candidate, forcing a delay in the rebels' move. It is understood that Messrs Costello and Turnbull arrived at an agreement whereby Mr Costello secured Mr Turnbull's backing in exchange for...

 

 

 

Parliament House

 

Suite 305

 

2:31 PM

 

Peter Costello was ecstatic for the first time since the government's defeat. Now things were going smoothly and if his number count was correct, he would be Leader of the Opposition within 24 hours or less. Nonetheless, he still had to hold down his numbers- he had a hard count of 50 supporters to Nelson's 36, but Nelson would fight to the last breath to retain his position. Ideally Nelson would realize his position was hopeless and quit the race, but Costello wasn't counting on that. In the meantime he kept in close contact with his chief canvassers Chris Pyne and Tony Abbott.

"We still at 50?"

"Working on Petro [Georgiou] right now. He's uneasy about immigration as usual but still undecided. Truth be told I don't think we'll get him unless you negotiate on the non-negotiables, but we'll keep trying."

"Don't put much more on him. Find a backbencher or 2, keep on holding those we've got. Then all we do is wait. Keep me informed only if you think my personal intervention is required to keep someone onboard."

"Message received, Peter."


Petro has always overestimated his own worth, at least since thinking himself too good for a parliamentary secretariat when we first came in if not earlier. We must get party discipline back to where it was in the third term. Too many opinions and not nearly enough hits on the Government.


11:21 PM

As Costello was contemplating changes to his Shadow Cabinet- among other things, Pyne would go to Treasury and Turnbull to Communications- the phone rang again.

"Peter, Paul here. I'm inviting you to the Press Club on Friday..."

"Long time no hear. You saying what I think you're saying?"

"Turn on the telly, mate. Suffice it to say you won't be speaking as a private member."

[Talleyrand]

I'm interested to see whether the election of Costello will cause a bump in Lib poll numbers or whether he'll have to deal with the ugly numbers Turnbull had to detail with early in his tenure as well.

(BTW, who is Paul?)

[I Can't Get That Sound You Make, Out Of My Head]

I'm interested to see whether the election of Costello will cause a bump in Lib poll numbers or whether he'll have to deal with the ugly numbers Turnbull had to detail with early in his tenure as well.

(BTW, who is Paul?)

Keating? Though I'd imagine it's a Liberal.

[RogueBeaver]

Paul Kelly. As for polls... nothing dramatic.

[I Can't Get That Sound You Make, Out Of My Head]

Paul Kelly. As for polls... nothing dramatic.

Why would a musician or footballer (or is it someone else?) call Costello?

[RogueBeaver]

The Oz's editor in chief.

[RogueBeaver]

"This is ABC Breaking News. We can now confirm that very shortly Brendan Nelson will announce his withdrawal from the Liberal leadership contest and resign, allowing Peter Costello to be acclaimed at tomorrow's party meeting. ABC News understands that the two men spoke a short while ago to discuss Mr Nelson's future in the Liberal Party, however for now we can only say that either way Mr Nelson will be going to the backbench. Here's Mr Nelson now."



"Good evening ladies and gentlemen. Over the past 9 months I have been giving this job my all in the hope that the Coalition would learn from its defeat, regain the community's trust and go onto victory in 2010. We may yet do all those things, but I will not be the one leading that effort. Yesterday I said it was necessary for the party to resolve this leadership issue once and for all rather than allowing it to fester and further damage our standing in the community. However since I last spoke to you, I have arrived at the inescapable conclusion that my colleagues would prefer a change in leadership. A short time ago I spoke to Mr Costello, and we agreed that a contested ballot tomorrow morning would only further exacerbate divisions within the partyroom. The Liberal Party has had more than enough of division over this last little while, what we need is unity. Something which unfortunately I was unable to accomplish over my 9 months as leader. In the furtherance of this desire I will not contest tomorrow morning's ballot, thereby enabling the acclamation of Mr Costello. This will be only the third time in Liberal history that a party leader has been acclaimed, and all 3 times the community gave a highly positive response to those displays of unity.

 

Now I know that many of you are interested in what I will be doing once my leadership formally ends tomorrow morning, but there isn't much to say other than that I will go to the backbench. Nor will I be renominating at the next federal election. Mr Costello deserves his own team and his own platform, which he will get. No more cliques leaking to the media about hypothetical spills and polls. One leader with one unified party behind him. If history records my contribution to the Liberal Party as restoring a measure of stability after a tough defeat, then that is one which I would gladly accept. I'll now open the floor to questions."


 

"Mr Nelson, while no one here would describe this spill as a surprise given recent events, were you surprised at Mr Costello's decision to challenge?"
 

"I knew that this sort of question would arise, and my answer to you and everyone else here is simple: I am not divulging details of private conversations between caucus colleagues to the media. This has never been my way and it will not start now..."

 

"Didn't think he'd fold that quickly, did you?" Pyne was surprised that Nelson had chosen not even to contest the ballot and instead drop out. "I thought he'd fold but tomorrow morning instead of tonight."

 
Costello smiled wryly, pausing to look out at the skyline. "No, Brendan moved from denial to acceptance. Math doesn't lie and once he accepted the mathematical reality... the rest was easier, if not easy. Giving up one's career is never easy. At any rate we can't mope too much about Brendan. There's work to do- Shadow Cabinet shuffles, policy reviews, strategizing. I'll see you blokes tomorrow morning."

 

HOR, Canberra, 1 September 2008

Opposition Caucus Room

9:07 AM
 

"Good morning, everyone. Today our first order of business is the leadership ballot. Before we start, I'd like to ask Dr Nelson to say a few words." Joe Hockey, as Manager of Opposition Business, would be overseeing the formal vote alongside the party whips, and was anxious for a smooth proceeding. He had backed Costello but like everyone else, wanted a united party.

 

"Thank you Joe for that kind introduction. As I said last night, I will not be contesting this ballot, nor will I accept a position in the new Shadow Cabinet. It has been a long 10 months, indeed a long 3 years. In that period we descended the mountain of victory into the valleys of electoral defeat. I would like to think these past few months have helped rejuvenate and stabilize the party, something which we needed for a victory in 2010. I want to thank everyone for the great honour that you bestowed on me last year: leading this great party of ours, something I will always remember..."

 

"It has been moved that Peter Costello be elected Leader. Since nominations closed earlier this morning, I hereby declare that Peter Costello has been elected Leader of the Liberal Party and thereby Leader of the Opposition!"
 

The caucus room erupted into cheers, then heeded Costello's impatient hand wave for them to sit down.


"First of all, I want to say that being elected party leader is a great honor, one which I shall always cherish. You have reposed your trust in me, and I will do my utmost to earn it as your leader. In the immediate term, there will be a reshuffling of the Shadow Cabinet, and those affected have been notified of the changes. In the next couple of weeks there will be a policy review- more on that Monday- and we will start planning our medium-to-long term strategy soon enough as well..."

Costello then left the caucus room with Julie Bishop to front the Gallery pack which had assembled outside- his first press conference as Opposition Leader.
 

"Good morning all. As I told the party room a few minutes ago, I am deeply honored to be elected Liberal leader and will do my utmost to fullfill the trust bestowed upon me by my colleagues. Trust, economy, values- all these things will be integral to our agenda, which will be rolled out in the coming days and weeks. In that timeframe I expect to be meeting my Liberal colleagues in the states and territories to discuss a coordinated agenda, or as the ALP might put it, a common front, against this Government. Ask away ladies and gentlemen, I'm yours for the next few minutes."

"Mr Costello, have you spoken with Messrs Rudd or Howard yet?"

(Laughs)

"Somehow I guessed this would arise, and the answer is later today."

"Will there be a policy review? Say, on industrial relations?"

"We're going to be looking through our platform in the future. Other than that I've never been one for speculation and won't start now."

"Your new Shadow Cabinet lineup has Malcolm Turnbull in Communications rather than Treasury-"

"Which was by cordial mutual agreement, as disappointing as that will be to the parlor game pedants. All of whom, I might add, are outside this room." (Laughter)




PMO, 9:20 AM

While Peter Costello was holding his first presser as Opposition Leader, Kevin Rudd had convened a strategy session with his kitchen Cabinet: Julia Gillard, Lindsay Tanner and Wayne Swan. It would draw less media scrutiny with all the media attention on their new opponent.

"My thoughts? We go for super, interest, WorkChoices, the Howard record generally." The PM was confident without cocksureness: he knew just how lethal an opponent Costello could be, however in these circumstances he felt the Victorian was too baggage-laden and divisive to topple him in 2010.


Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan largely agreed with Rudd. "I think Kevin's strategy is a great one, and we should stick to it from the minute Costello takes his seat tomorrow. Wayne should stickhandle our attack on him- erat on erat violence" Gillard said, laughing. "Actually, Julia, I had you in mind for the political side of that equation. Leave the economic part to Wayne, that I agree on. We have to keep our present momentum is all."


"And if we don't?" Tanner was skeptical, as he was wont to be at the best of times. "Right now we're in an extended honeymoon period, which comes to an end for everyone. Even Hawke. Then what's our plan?"

"What I just outlined, Lindsay. For now we'll keep on governing and use these various strategems as required. Don't be so bloody pessimistic all the time..."





*The Costello Shadow Cabinet is essentially the same as Turnbull's IRL. Main differences are Pyne at Treasury and Turnbull at BDE. Abbott, while not formally promoted, is now a member of the kitchen cabinet.

[Talleyrand]

Great as usual, RB. I hope we get to see more of Lindsay Tanner, btw.

[RogueBeaver]

Tanner will be around, don't worry.

Next update will be Friday or Saturday. Econocratic one, and that's alll I'm saying for now.