Nevada Congressional Musical chairs
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Author Topic: Nevada Congressional Musical chairs  (Read 2479 times)
krazen1211
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« on: November 01, 2011, 06:13:11 PM »
http://www.lvrj.com/news/titus-to-announce-run-for-1st-district-seat-132958858.html?ref=858

Former Rep. Dina Titus plans to announce on Thursday she is running for the 1st Congressional District covering much of urban Las Vegas, according to a Democratic Party insider.


5 Democrats, 3 districts.

Dina Titus
John Oceguera
John Lee
Ruben Kihuen
Steven Horsford
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LastVoter
seatown
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2011, 06:55:34 PM »
Quote from: krazen1211 on November 01, 2011, 06:13:11 PM
http://www.lvrj.com/news/titus-to-announce-run-for-1st-district-seat-132958858.html?ref=858

Former Rep. Dina Titus plans to announce on Thursday she is running for the 1st Congressional District covering much of urban Las Vegas, according to a Democratic Party insider.


5 Democrats, 3 districts.

Dina Titus
John Oceguera
John Lee
Ruben Kihuen
Steven Horsford
Isn't it just 2 safe districts and 1 competitive district? I bet there will be 2 in each of the safe ones and 1 in a swing district.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2011, 03:43:00 AM »
Kihuen is running in the 1st.

Oceguera's Assembly district spans the 1st and 3rd districts, so we'll see if he decides to take on Titus and Kihuen, or Heck.  Probably the latter if Titus isn't forced to change her mind and rematch Heck.  He won't have much of an advantage against Kihuen among Hispanic voters anyway.

Horsford previously said he'll run in whichever district he lives in, so that's the 4th.  It makes even more sense for Lee to do the same (even though he's going to lose).

So, that's:

1st: Titus v. Kihuen
3rd: Oceguera
4th: Horsford v. Lee
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LastVoter
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2011, 04:10:33 AM »
Quote from: Joe Republic on November 02, 2011, 03:43:00 AM
Kihuen is running in the 1st.

Oceguera's Assembly district spans the 1st and 3rd districts, so we'll see if he decides to take on Titus and Kihuen, or Heck.  Probably the latter if Titus isn't forced to change her mind and rematch Heck.  He won't have much of an advantage against Kihuen among Hispanic voters anyway.

Horsford previously said he'll run in whichever district he lives in, so that's the 4th.  It makes even more sense for Lee to do the same (even though he's going to lose).

So, that's:

1st: Titus v. Kihuen
3rd: Oceguera
4th: Horsford v. Lee

So third is swing district I assume?
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2011, 04:15:31 AM »
Yes.  It's slightly friendlier to Heck now, but Dems still have a registration advantage there.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #5 on: November 22, 2011, 01:52:26 PM »
Lee has dropped out.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #6 on: November 22, 2011, 06:59:22 PM »

Clearing the way for Horsford.

Barbara Cegavske will be the GOP sacrificial lamb here, by the way.  Nobody has announced for the 1st district yet, but it'll probably be the same loony who ran against Berkley the last two cycles, whose name escapes me right now.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #7 on: November 29, 2011, 02:55:31 AM »
Titus has released an internal poll that has her at 77% against 11% for Kihuen.  Ouch.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #8 on: December 26, 2011, 02:30:10 PM »
Quote from: Joe Republic on November 02, 2011, 04:15:31 AM
Yes.  It's slightly friendlier to Heck now, but Dems still have a registration advantage there.

Barely. And that might not even be true by election day.

http://www.clarkcountynv.gov/Depts/election/Documents/Reports/RegStatsDist_Active.pdf



The old district 3 had a Democratic registration advantage of about 25000 votes.
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Holmes
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« Reply #9 on: December 26, 2011, 02:44:29 PM »
Why aren't the numbers for the second district there?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #10 on: December 26, 2011, 03:09:46 PM »
Quote from: Holmes on December 26, 2011, 02:44:29 PM
Why aren't the numbers for the second district there?
It's not in Clark County? The fourth data are presumably partial as well.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #11 on: December 26, 2011, 05:47:00 PM »
Quote from: Minion of Midas on December 26, 2011, 03:09:46 PM
Quote from: Holmes on December 26, 2011, 02:44:29 PM
Why aren't the numbers for the second district there?
It's not in Clark County? The fourth data are presumably partial as well.

Correct. Full NV-04 figures add about 5k to the GOP side.
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #12 on: December 26, 2011, 09:07:02 PM »
Quote from: krazen1211 on December 26, 2011, 02:30:10 PM
Quote from: Joe Republic on November 02, 2011, 04:15:31 AM
Yes.  It's slightly friendlier to Heck now, but Dems still have a registration advantage there.

Barely. And that might not even be true by election day.

http://www.clarkcountynv.gov/Depts/election/Documents/Reports/RegStatsDist_Active.pdf



The old district 3 had a Democratic registration advantage of about 25000 votes.

Meaningless numbers. Inactive in Nevada means you skipped a single general election. Anyone who voted in 2008 and not in 2010 is an "inactive" voter.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #13 on: December 26, 2011, 11:43:38 PM »
^ Exactly.

The key point is that however you look at it, the new map is 2-1-1, and that's an initial victory for them no matter how you spin it.
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Miles
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« Reply #14 on: February 08, 2012, 12:57:08 PM »
Kihuen is staying in the State Senate, not running for Congress in NV-01.

Titus now has a free ride in the primary and a safe district in the general. Looks like she'll be back in Congress.
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