Official Nevada Predictions
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 02:36:10 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  Official Nevada Predictions
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3
Author Topic: Official Nevada Predictions  (Read 3374 times)
Politico
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,862
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: February 03, 2012, 05:31:23 PM »

Romney:    50% +/- 5%
Paul:          20% +/- 5%
Gingrich:    20% +/- 5%
Santorum: 10% +/- 5%
Logged
Meeker
meekermariner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,164


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: February 03, 2012, 05:33:57 PM »

IIRC, the caucuses are held in the afternoon rather than at night in Nevada, right? If so, when should we begin to get results?

Some start as early as 9 AM. The Nevada GOP says not to expect anything until 8 PM EST though.

http://www.nvgopcaucus.com/media
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: February 03, 2012, 05:38:05 PM »

IIRC, the caucuses are held in the afternoon rather than at night in Nevada, right? If so, when should we begin to get results?

Short answer is that the caucuses are spread out throughout the day, and the state party will start releasing results at 5pm PT / 8pm ET, but it's unclear if the networks will release an entrance poll before that, and it's also unclear if we'll be able to get results directly from individual precincts hours before the state party releases anything.  Explanation in gory detail here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147887.0
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,876


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: February 03, 2012, 06:50:44 PM »

Well that's annoying. It should be pretty interesting following the hearsay on blogs and twitter until the official results are out though.
Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: February 03, 2012, 06:57:02 PM »

Romney - 55
Paul - 25
Gingrich - 15
Santorum - 5
Logged
Meeker
meekermariner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,164


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: February 03, 2012, 07:01:48 PM »

Well that's annoying. It should be pretty interesting following the hearsay on blogs and twitter until the official results are out though.

And the inevitable claims of fraud from the Paulites (though given how this was run in 2008 those claims will probably be valid).
Logged
Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,921
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.77, S: 3.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: February 03, 2012, 08:29:16 PM »

Romney 45
Gingrich 20
Paul 19
Santorum 10

I am giving Gingrich the benefit of the doubt here and giving him a slight edge over Ron Paul for the silver medal.
Logged
Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,921
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.77, S: 3.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: February 03, 2012, 08:29:51 PM »

What is turnout expected to be like?
Logged
Reginald
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 802
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: February 03, 2012, 08:55:19 PM »

Romney 50%
Paul 23%
Gingrich 17%
Santorum 9%
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: February 03, 2012, 08:56:24 PM »


Dunno what the expectation is, but here are the NV, CO, MN, and ME turnout #s from 2008, compared to Iowa 2008 and Iowa 2012:



Of course, only Romney and Paul contested Nevada in 2008, and this time all of the candidates have spent at least a day or two campaigning there.  OTOH, the race was still more unsettled at the time of the NV caucuses in 2008.  Also, IIRC, there are many more NV caucus sites this time around than in 2008.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,405
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: February 03, 2012, 08:58:10 PM »

I don't think anyone on the ground in Nevada thinks Gingrich will come in second.
Logged
Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,921
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.77, S: 3.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: February 03, 2012, 09:09:01 PM »

I don't think anyone on the ground in Nevada thinks Gingrich will come in second.

He probably won't, but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,615


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: February 03, 2012, 09:23:23 PM »

I guess having different areas on different days wasn't good for turnout in Maine. Wyoming Republicans also have some issues.
Logged
California8429
A-Bob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,785
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: February 03, 2012, 09:24:38 PM »

Romney 47%
Paul 27%
Gingrich 18%
Santorum 8%
Logged
Beet
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,806


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: February 03, 2012, 11:04:21 PM »

Romney 45
Paul 24
Gingrich 22
Santorum 8
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: February 03, 2012, 11:41:39 PM »

Romney 49
Gingrich 22
Paul 19
Santorum 8
Logged
Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: February 04, 2012, 12:53:52 AM »

Romney 54
Paul 18
Gingrich 17
Santorum 9
Scattering 2
Logged
Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 35,028
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.65, S: -2.78

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: February 04, 2012, 04:00:56 AM »

Romney 53%
Paul 21%
Gingrich 19%
Santorum 7%
Logged
California8429
A-Bob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,785
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: February 04, 2012, 12:16:22 PM »

Romney 43%
Gingrich 27%
Paul 24%
Santorum 6%

After seeing the low turnout, the fact that is in the morning, and the closing arguments.
Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,523
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: February 04, 2012, 12:54:15 PM »

Romney: 51%
Paul: 23%
Gingrich: 18%
Santorum: 7%
Logged
Minnesota Mike
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,967


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: February 04, 2012, 01:05:30 PM »

FWIW reading some random precinct reports on twitter ( #nvcaucus ) it looks like Mitt is cruising with well over 50% of the vote.
Logged
Jasengle
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 270
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -0.70

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: February 04, 2012, 02:43:32 PM »

Romney: 55%
Paul: 20%
Gingrich: 10%
Santorum: 7%
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,876


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: February 04, 2012, 02:44:49 PM »

Ralston's numbers are still more pro-Romney than mine, with Mittens at 62%.
Logged
Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
ModernBourbon Democrat
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,275


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: February 04, 2012, 03:28:23 PM »

Romney: 54%
Paul: 25%
Gingrich: 16%
Santorum: 8%
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: February 05, 2012, 02:37:28 AM »

Almost forgot about this. It's already tomorrow, right ?

Here's my prediction:

51% Romney
21% Paul
19% Gingrich
  8% Santorum
  1% Others

I'm happy with that. Looks like I was within a MoE of +/- 3% if the Exit Poll is correct.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.044 seconds with 13 queries.