February 7 Caucus Predictions

[Yelnoc]

Nevada is basically done with, adjust your predictions accordingly.

Colorado
Romney 35%
Paul 29%
Gingrich 28%
Santorum 8%

Minnesota
Santorum 36%
Paul 31%
Romney 19%
Gingrich 14%

Missouri (Non-Binding Primary)
Santorum 48%
Romney 35%
Paul 17%

[Lief 🗽]

I want to wait and see how well the Nevada caucus results track to the polls (especially how/if Romney underperforms and how/if Paul overperforms) before predicting these.

[TheGlobalizer]

I want to wait and see how well the Nevada caucus results track to the polls (especially how/if Romney underperforms and how/if Paul overperforms) before predicting these.

[Eraserhead]

I want to wait and see how well the Nevada caucus results track to the polls (especially how/if Romney underperforms and how/if Paul overperforms) before predicting these.

Indeed. I'll make my predictions for these on Sunday or Monday.

It's nice that we'll finally have three events to follow in one night though instead of just one (even if one of them is basically bogus).

[California8429]

Colorado
Gingrich 33%
Romney 33%
Paul 25%
Santorum 9%

Minnesota
Romney 34%
Paul 33%
Gingrich 17%
Santorum 16%

Missouri (Non-Binding Primary)
Santorum 44%
Romney 40%
Paul 16%

[5280]

Colorado
Romney 36%
Gingrich 34%
Paul 21%
Santorum 9%

Minnesota
Romney 42%
Paul 37%
Gingrich 12%
Santorum 9%

Missouri
Santorum 40%
Romney 38%
Paul 22%

[Eraserhead]

I like the optimism, people!

[5280]

I did the best job I could with my homestate. Hard to figure out each county, but I based it off from the 2008 caucus.

Romney 36%: Green
Gingrich 34%: Yellow

[California8429]

I did the best job I could with my homestate. Hard to figure out each county, but I based it off from the 2008 caucus.

Romney 36%: Green
Gingrich 34%: Yellow

Romney is going to win 60% in Douglas and take Jefferson too. Gingrich will do far better in the eastern plains.

[Joe Biden 2020]

So, if I'm understanding this correctly, Colorado and Minnesota award delegates Tuesday night, but Missouri is just a beauty contest?

[RI]

So, if I'm understanding this correctly, Colorado and Minnesota award delegates Tuesday night, but Missouri is just a beauty contest?

Not quite. None of the contests directly award delegates, but CO and MN start the process toward selecting delegates at the state conventions. MO doesn't have delegates at stake.

[Joe Biden 2020]

So, if I'm understanding this correctly, Colorado and Minnesota award delegates Tuesday night, but Missouri is just a beauty contest?

Not quite. None of the contests directly award delegates, but CO and MN start the process toward selecting delegates at the state conventions. MO doesn't have delegates at stake.

So, Colorado and Minnesota are Iowa-esque contests?

[RI]

So, if I'm understanding this correctly, Colorado and Minnesota award delegates Tuesday night, but Missouri is just a beauty contest?

Not quite. None of the contests directly award delegates, but CO and MN start the process toward selecting delegates at the state conventions. MO doesn't have delegates at stake.

So, Colorado and Minnesota are Iowa-esque contests?

Yep.

[Joe Biden 2020]

So, if I'm understanding this correctly, Colorado and Minnesota award delegates Tuesday night, but Missouri is just a beauty contest?

Not quite. None of the contests directly award delegates, but CO and MN start the process toward selecting delegates at the state conventions. MO doesn't have delegates at stake.

So, Colorado and Minnesota are Iowa-esque contests?

Yep.

Thanks, that makes sense.

[RogueBeaver]

No percentages, but Romney will have a clean sweep.

[California8429]

Colorado
Romney 35%
Gingrich 28%
Paul 23%
Santorum 14%

Minnesota
Romney 35%
Paul 32%
Gingrich 17%
Santorum 16%

Missouri (Non-Binding Primary)
Santorum 44%
Romney 40%
Paul 16%

[RI]

Santorum wins Missouri, no idea on the others.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Santorum wins Missouri, no idea on the others.

Too bad it doesn't mean anything.

[RI]

Santorum wins Missouri, no idea on the others.

Too bad it doesn't mean anything.

Delegate-wise perhaps, but it could have psychological effects, and it gives Santorum more wins than Gingrich.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I think Romney will win Colorado, but I think a possible Santorum upset could happen in Minnesota since he won Iowa.  That one could go either way, IMO.  Missouri is probably a Santorum "victory".

[Joe Biden 2020]

Santorum wins Missouri, no idea on the others.

Too bad it doesn't mean anything.

Delegate-wise perhaps, but it could have psychological effects, and it gives Santorum more wins than Gingrich.

When is Missouri's delegate-selecting contest?  Is it Super Tuesday?

[RI]

Santorum wins Missouri, no idea on the others.

Too bad it doesn't mean anything.

Delegate-wise perhaps, but it could have psychological effects, and it gives Santorum more wins than Gingrich.

When is Missouri's delegate-selecting contest?  Is it Super Tuesday?

March 17.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Santorum wins Missouri, no idea on the others.

Too bad it doesn't mean anything.

Delegate-wise perhaps, but it could have psychological effects, and it gives Santorum more wins than Gingrich.

When is Missouri's delegate-selecting contest?  Is it Super Tuesday?

March 17.

That's right, I remember reading that now.

[Minnesota Mike]

I think Romney will win Colorado, but I think a possible Santorum upset could happen in Minnesota since he won Iowa.  That one could go either way, IMO.  Missouri is probably a Santorum "victory".

This.

The Minnesota Republican caucuses are a lot like the Iowa caucuses, dominated by by religious conservatives.  Very conservative electorate,  light turnout, I can see a Santorum win.

Bonus pick- Ron Paul wins the very light turnout Maine caucus that actually started last week and will announce their results next Saturday.

[Punditty]

It will be interesting to see what happens with the Santorum campaign if he picks up a couple wins on Feb. 7.