February 7 Caucus Predictions

[Pyro]

Colorado
Romney 38%
Gingrich 30%
Paul 25%
Santorum 7%

Minnesota
Romney 42%
Paul 24%
Gingrich 17%
Santorum 17%

Missouri (Non-Binding Primary)
Santorum 42%
Romney 42%
Paul 16%

[Tender Branson]

CO should look a lot like NV, just that Newt/Paul/Santorum are all bunched together:

52% Romney
17% Paul
16% Santorum
15% Gingrich

MN:

36% Romney
25% Santorum
21% Gingrich
18% Paul

MO beauty contest:

49% Santorum
40% Romney
10% Paul
  1% Others

[Alcon]

The February 7th results should be really interesting, especially Nevada's.

[Averroës Nix]

Colorado

40% Romney
26% Santorum
18% Gingrich
16% Paul

Minnesota

32% Santorum
28% Romney
22% Paul
18% Gingrich

Missouri

46% Santorum
39% Romney
15% Paul
(Who else is on the ballot here? Could Gingrich tell his supporters to vote for Cain or Perry?)

Nevada

50% Romney
20% Gingrich
19% Paul
11% Santorum

[angus]

I bet these will be even more off than our Nevada predictions.  I'll probably edit this after tomorrow, but I'm bored in Spanish :/

Colorado
Gingrich 35%
Paul 29%
Romney 28%
Santorum 8%

Minnesota
Paul 36%
Santorum 31%
Romney 19%
Gingrich 14%

Missouri (Non-Binding Primary)
Santorum 48%
Romney 35%
Paul 17%

No majorities?  Weak field, I guess.  Last time, a few states had majorities by now.  Romney had over fifty percent in NV and ME, I think, and went on to get over 50% in some SuperTuesday states, although ultimately he was not nominated.  This year, no one has topped 50% in any contest and no one seems likely to in the near future.  This may be good news for Obama.  

[Torie]

I bet these will be even more off than our Nevada predictions.  I'll probably edit this after tomorrow, but I'm bored in Spanish :/

Colorado
Gingrich 35%
Paul 29%
Romney 28%
Santorum 8%

Minnesota
Paul 36%
Santorum 31%
Romney 19%
Gingrich 14%

Missouri (Non-Binding Primary)
Santorum 48%
Romney 35%
Paul 17%

No majorities?  Weak field, I guess.  Last time, a few states had majorities by now.  Romney had over fifty percent in NV and ME, I think, and went on to get over 50% in some SuperTuesday states, although ultimately he was not nominated.  This year, no one has topped 50% in any contest and no one seems likely to in the near future.  This may be good news for Obama.  

Romney will more likely than not get over 50% in NV, when the rest of Clark County comes in.

[angus]

Ah, Clark County.  Many fond memories.  Lots of dollars wasted there.  I was married in Clark County.  The Aladdin Casino & Resort, to be exact.

Well, fair enough.  I looked at your projection.  It is the most populous county, but all we can say at the moment is that with 71% reported, we have Romney at 48%, with Ron and Newt waiting to see which one gets five delegates and which one gets six.  The link on dailpaul.com is broken.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Colorado

Romney - 40%
Santorum - 29%
Gingrich - 17%
Paul - 14%

Minnesota

Santorum - 31%
Romney - 26%
Gingrich - 22%
Paul - 21%

Missouri

Santorum - 41%
Romney - 32%
Paul - 15%
Uncommitted/Other - 12%

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Colorado
Romney 40%
Santorum 30%
Gingrich 16%
Paul 15%

Minnesota
Santorum 34%
Romney 25%
Paul 21%
Gingrich 19%

Missouri
Santorum 50%
Romney 38%
Paul 12%

[Niemeyerite]

Colorado:

Romney 37%
Santorum 28%
Gingrich 20%
Paul 15%

Minnesota:

Santorum 32%
Romney 27%
Paul 23%
Gingrich 18%

Missouri:

Santorum 50%
Romney 38%
Paul 12%

[Bacon King]

Colorado
Romney: 55%
Santorum: 24%
Gingrich: 12%
Paul: 9%

Minnesota
Santorum: 33%
Romney: 28%
Paul: 23%
Gingrich: 16%

Missouri
Santorum: 44%
Romney: 33%
Paul: 14%
Uncommitted: 7%
others: 2%

[RI]

Missouri
Santorum: 43%
Romney: 30%
Paul: 18%
Uncommitted: 7%
others: 2%

I don't think Uncommitted is on the ballot in MO.

[Bacon King]

Missouri
Santorum: 43%
Romney: 30%
Paul: 18%
Uncommitted: 7%
others: 2%

I don't think Uncommitted is on the ballot in MO.

Ah, you might be right. I was going by this list on Wikipedia, but it's not listed on The Green Papers.

[California8429]

Colorado
Romney 41%
Santorum 27%
Gingrich 20%
Paul 12%

Minnesota
Santorum 27%
Romney 25%
Paul 23%
Gingrich 19%

Missouri
Santorum 47%
Romney 40%
Paul 13%

[TheGlobalizer]

Alright, guess I'll take a crack at this crazy sh**.  Big round numbers.

Colorado
Romney 45%
Gingrich 25%
Santorum 15%
Paul 15%

Minnesota
Romney 30%
Santorum 25%
Paul 25%
Gingrich 20%

Missouri
Romney 40%
Santorum 35%
Paul 25%

Game, set, and match, respectively.

EDIT: Forgot about Newt non-presence in MO.

[NHI]

Colorado:

Romney: 45%
Gingrich: 26%
Paul: 14%
Santorum: 13%

Minnesota:

Romney: 30%
Santorum: 28%
Paul: 22%
Gingrich: 16%

Missouri:

Romney: 39%
Santorum: 38%
Paul: 19%

[Eraserhead]

Hmm, not much to go on here. Just the 2008 results in these states, the results in other states so far this year, our personal assessments of the campaigns and their organizations in the states and PPP's polling. Well, that makes it sound like a lot but it isn't!

Final Predictions:

Colorado

Romney 43%
Santorum 23%
Gingrich 18%
Paul 16%

Minnesota

Romney 32%
Santorum 28%
Paul 24%
Gingrich 16%

Missouri

Santorum 43%
Romney 39%
Paul 17%
Others 1%

It'll probably be a bad night to be Newt Gingrich. Minnesota could be the most fun since Iowa if PPP was in the right ballpark.

Btw, it's time to sticky this, no?

[Eraserhead]

I'm already starting to feel like my predictions for MN and MO are probably way off but whatever.

[Tender Branson]

CO:

43% Romney
23% Santorum
18% Gingrich
16% Paul

MN:

29% Santorum
26% Romney
24% Paul
21% Gingrich

MO beauty contest:

48% Santorum
41% Romney
10% Paul
  1% Others

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Minnesota:

Santorum  32
Romney     24
Paul          23
Gingrich    19

Colorado:

Romney    41
Santorum  27
Gingrich    17
Paul          15

Missouri Primary:
Santorum 49
Romney    34
Paul          16

[Sbane]

What time will the caucuses be done tomorrow? Is it all throughout the day like Nevada or is it more like Iowa with most caucuses ending at the same time? And Missouri ends at 8 PM ET?

[5280]

I think Santorum is going to pull ahead of Gingrich for 2nd place in CO from my hunches.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Unfortunately, I don't get off work until 9:00 pm CT tomorrow night, so I won't be home until just in time to catch the wrap up.  I will put the results on DVR starting with the Situation Room on CNN at 3:00 pm CT all the way through until probably 12:00 am CT.

[Reginald]

Colorado
Romney 42%
Santorum 25%
Gingrich 18%
Paul 15%

Minnesota
Romney 31%
Santorum 30%
Gingrich 21%
Paul 18%

Missouri
Santorum 46%
Romney 38%
Paul 13%
Other 3%

[Mr. Morden]

What time will the caucuses be done tomorrow? Is it all throughout the day like Nevada or is it more like Iowa with most caucuses ending at the same time? And Missouri ends at 8 PM ET?

Yes, in Missouri, the polls close at 7pm Central / 8pm Eastern.  The two caucus states do things like Iowa, rather than Nevada, with a uniform statewide starting time of 7pm local time (which translates to 8pm Eastern for MN and 9pm Eastern for CO).  I don't know if the networks will bother with entrance polls, but if they do, then those are the times they would release them.

I don't remember either CO or MN being terribly slow in counting four years ago, but then again NV wasn't nearly as bad back then either.  In 2008, I think both CO and MN had most of their results up within a few hours.  Slower going than a primary, but not Nevada slow.  But we'll just have to wait and see.  I guess you could look back at the 2008 Super Tuesday results thread here on Atlas to reconstruct how fast or slow the counting went.