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|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election What-ifs?
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| | | |-+  Thatcher Survives
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Question: Would the Tories win out 1992?
Thankfully, they'd win a bigger majority than OTL   -4 (14.3%)
Unfortunately, they'd lose   -4 (14.3%)
With a diminished majority, worse than OTL   -5 (17.9%)
Fortunately, she'd crash and burn   -14 (50%)
Unfortunately, she'd win a fourth term   -1 (3.6%)
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Total Voters: 28

Author Topic: Thatcher Survives  (Read 1370 times)
Jerseyrules
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« on: January 28, 2012, 02:30:15 pm »
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So, assuming the Tories didn't stab her in the back in 1990, what's the chance of her winning a fourth term?  Would she see it out?  How would England look after 18 years of the Iron Lady?  Discuss
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Endorsements:
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #1 on: January 28, 2012, 05:22:01 pm »
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Diminished majority, but strong enough to last. She'd resign sometime in '95 or '96 and her successor would lose much much worse to Labour.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #2 on: January 28, 2012, 06:20:55 pm »
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Diminished majority, but strong enough to last. She'd resign sometime in '95 or '96 and her successor would lose much much worse to Labour.

Would it still be Blair and the "radical center/new labour"?
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

Skyrim now, Skyrim tomorrow, Morrowind Forever!

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

Quote
FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #3 on: January 28, 2012, 08:13:58 pm »
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Certainly.
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« Reply #4 on: January 28, 2012, 08:19:37 pm »
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She'd lose, but Kinnock'd be blamed for Black Wednesday and the new leader would become PM in 1996-1997.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #5 on: January 28, 2012, 08:24:45 pm »
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She'd lose, but Kinnock'd be blamed for Black Wednesday and the new leader would become PM in 1996-1997.

Kinnock wins 92, then that headline becomes reality...well more conservatives for us Wink
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Skyrim now, Skyrim tomorrow, Morrowind Forever!

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

Quote
FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)
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« Reply #6 on: February 02, 2012, 09:22:52 am »
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Lose horribly in 92, and enable an earlier Labour return to power.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #7 on: February 02, 2012, 09:36:18 am »
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blGVaUQ2bzI these guys in power?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1rJW2P2rFY
« Last Edit: February 02, 2012, 09:38:36 am by Teddy (IDS Legislator) »Logged

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« Reply #8 on: February 02, 2012, 09:50:34 am »
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Hung Parliament. Remember, the Tory majority in 1987 was over 100; it would have been difficult for Labour to overturn that. Thatcher was still an asset to the party but not as much as John Major turned out to be in 1992.

Thatcher would have went to the country in 1991...probably not long after the Gulf War. In the 1991 Local elections, despite gaining a wave of seats from the Tories, Labours vote share was 6%down on 1990 and the Tories were up around 2%.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #9 on: February 03, 2012, 01:12:40 am »
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So how about an earlier kacky election?  Post-Gulf War Tory hard-on?
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Skyrim now, Skyrim tomorrow, Morrowind Forever!

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

Quote
FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)
You kip if you want to...
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« Reply #10 on: February 03, 2012, 12:38:03 pm »
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So how about an earlier kacky election?  Post-Gulf War Tory hard-on?

Well, she went to the Falklands for the 1983 election, so I wouldn't put it past her for this one...
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YL
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« Reply #11 on: February 03, 2012, 01:59:25 pm »
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Hung Parliament. Remember, the Tory majority in 1987 was over 100; it would have been difficult for Labour to overturn that. Thatcher was still an asset to the party but not as much as John Major turned out to be in 1992.

Thatcher would have went to the country in 1991...probably not long after the Gulf War. In the 1991 Local elections, despite gaining a wave of seats from the Tories, Labours vote share was 6%down on 1990 and the Tories were up around 2%.

There was an obvious difference between the 1990 Tories and the 1991 Tories which might be an explanation for that...

The Tories got rid of her because she was a liability and they knew it.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #12 on: February 04, 2012, 03:18:13 pm »
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Hung Parliament. Remember, the Tory majority in 1987 was over 100; it would have been difficult for Labour to overturn that. Thatcher was still an asset to the party but not as much as John Major turned out to be in 1992.

Thatcher would have went to the country in 1991...probably not long after the Gulf War. In the 1991 Local elections, despite gaining a wave of seats from the Tories, Labours vote share was 6%down on 1990 and the Tories were up around 2%.

There was an obvious difference between the 1990 Tories and the 1991 Tories which might be an explanation for that...

The Tories got rid of her because she was a liability and they knew it.

Alright, what about no poll tax (just trying to figure this out, as I don't know a great deal about UK politics.)
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Skyrim now, Skyrim tomorrow, Morrowind Forever!

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

Quote
FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)
Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #13 on: June 10, 2012, 06:56:07 pm »
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My theory:
The 1992 election would result in a Labour minority which relies on the Liberal Democrats for support.  In this alternate timeline, Thatcher resigns as Conservative leader, and John Major beats out Michael Heseltine for the Tory leadership afterward.  Kinnock's government is marked by hugely divisive struggles between left-wingers like Michael Meacher and the young "modernizers" like Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, who is made Chancellor in 1994 after John Smith's death.  The divisions hamper the government's ability to get anything done, and in 1997, John Major's Conservative Party wins a comfortable majority.  Gordon Brown is elected Labour leader, having already served three years as Chancellor, after Kinnock steps down.  In 2003, the party faces a dilemma over the Iraq war, with Tony Blair and others supporting the war, while Brown and the majority of Labour MPs oppose it.  Under pressure from the party's left, Brown uses the whip to force Labour MP's to vote against the war, but Blair and others on the hard-right of the party defy it.  Blair then challenges Brown for the Labour leadership, and looses.  He then resigns, saying he can't serve in a parliamentary party that "opposes the fight against terrorism.". He is replaced as Shadow Chancellor by Harriet Harman, after many loyal Blairites refuse the position.  Anger over the Iraq war and economic inequality allows Brown to win the 2005 election.  Brown doesn't privatize the Bank of England (according to Blair's new book, it was his own idea, not Brown's, and he basically whipped Brown into obedience over the Iraq War) and pursues a more left-of-center approach than Blair did, even though it's not "Old Labour.". It's essentially a different kind of "New Labour." than in OTL.  The economic collapse of 2008 causes a sharp decline in Labour's poll standings, but at the 2009 general election, Brown bests the Torries and their leader, Boris Johnson, but he does have to form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats.  
« Last Edit: June 14, 2012, 03:31:37 pm by Peternerdman »Logged



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Cathcon
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« Reply #14 on: June 10, 2012, 07:31:38 pm »
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Sounds like a pretty cool scenario, Pete.
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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #15 on: June 13, 2012, 10:11:49 pm »
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Sounds like a pretty cool scenario, Pete.
You can tell there's an element of wishful thinking there.  Tongue
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #16 on: June 21, 2012, 03:10:35 pm »
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Sounds like a pretty cool scenario, Pete.
You can tell there's an element of wishful thinking there.  Tongue

True, but well-written
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

Skyrim now, Skyrim tomorrow, Morrowind Forever!

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

Quote
FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)
Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #17 on: June 23, 2012, 06:30:43 pm »
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Sounds like a pretty cool scenario, Pete.
You can tell there's an element of wishful thinking there.  Tongue

True, but well-written.
Thanks.  I have a lot of fun with alternate histories.  
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #18 on: June 23, 2012, 07:07:42 pm »
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Minority government of either party. If you can somehow butterfly the poll tax then something like RL 1992. Bad economic news and incumbency fatigue* will take their toll.

*In both senses.
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« Reply #19 on: June 24, 2012, 01:43:03 pm »
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Sounds like a pretty cool scenario, Pete.
You can tell there's an element of wishful thinking there.  Tongue

True, but well-written.
Thanks.  I have a lot of fun with alternate histories.  

Me too Wink.  Are you on alternatehistory.com?
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

Skyrim now, Skyrim tomorrow, Morrowind Forever!

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

Quote
FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)
Peter the Lefty
Peternerdman
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« Reply #20 on: July 16, 2012, 10:52:15 pm »
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Sounds like a pretty cool scenario, Pete.
You can tell there's an element of wishful thinking there.  Tongue

True, but well-written.
Thanks.  I have a lot of fun with alternate histories.  

Me too Wink.  Are you on alternatehistory.com?
Yep.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #21 on: July 23, 2012, 03:49:29 pm »
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Sounds like a pretty cool scenario, Pete.
You can tell there's an element of wishful thinking there.  Tongue

True, but well-written.
Thanks.  I have a lot of fun with alternate histories.  

Me too Wink.  Are you on alternatehistory.com?
Yep.

Same username?
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

Skyrim now, Skyrim tomorrow, Morrowind Forever!

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

Quote
FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)
Peter the Lefty
Peternerdman
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« Reply #22 on: August 02, 2012, 05:42:05 pm »
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Sounds like a pretty cool scenario, Pete.
You can tell there's an element of wishful thinking there.  Tongue

Nope.  Left-wing History Geek.  What about you?
True, but well-written.
Thanks.  I have a lot of fun with alternate histories.  

Me too Wink.  Are you on alternatehistory.com?
Yep.

Same username?
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