Canadian by-elections, 2012

[DL]

I think the NDP will shock everyone and win the Rothesay byelection. You heard it here.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think the NDP will shock everyone and win the Rothesay byelection. You heard it here.

I don't think they'll win, but getting 40% is not out of the realm of possibility.

[lilTommy]

I think the NDP will shock everyone and win the Rothesay byelection. You heard it here.

I don't think they'll win, but getting 40% is not out of the realm of possibility.

I am really hoping that the NDP does win this, do we have a history of leaders running and not winning seats in by-elections? specifically in NB?... i remember in the late 90's (early 00's?) the NSNDP leader helen Macdonald (i think) lost a Cape Breton by-election... then it felt like she promptly resigned. Now we all know how things have turned out since
There was mention that the Alward tories are still popular, and this being a tory seat they have the advantage for sure. Any idea from the ground if the NDP or the tories or even the LIberals have momentum and can win?

[DL]

I think the NDP will shock everyone and win the Rothesay byelection. You heard it here.

I don't think they'll win, but getting 40% is not out of the realm of possibility.

Rothesay is a pretty competitive three-way race, if anyone gets 40% of the vote - they win for sure. In fact, I would bet money that whoever wins will win with LESS than 40% of the vote.

[MaxQue]

NDP had pretty good results in the western half of the riding, the problem is the east.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think the NDP will shock everyone and win the Rothesay byelection. You heard it here.

I don't think they'll win, but getting 40% is not out of the realm of possibility.

Rothesay is a pretty competitive three-way race, if anyone gets 40% of the vote - they win for sure. In fact, I would bet money that whoever wins will win with LESS than 40% of the vote.

I'm thinking the Liberals won't get a good result here, as most of their voters will go NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Toronto-Danforth by-election poll by poll results: http://www.elections.ca/res/rep/off/ovr_2012/poll_e.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberals won 8 polls and tied another (up from being shut out in 2011). A few in Riverdale, East York and the Playfair Estates.

[Hatman 🍁]

Analyzing Rothesay: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/06/rothesay-new-brunswick-provincial-by.html

[lilTommy]

Analyzing Rothesay: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/06/rothesay-new-brunswick-provincial-by.html

Great analysis; i am still dreamy-eyed in my hopes that Cardy can win (given the new found attention the riding could have with a party leader, i know i lived in Jacks riding from the moment he was elected till he pased RIP). BUT i think your probably right; demographically its just not there for the NDP... if this were BC or NS, and if the tories were less popular then they are now, possibly a protest vote would push Cardy over. But NB has never been solid for the NDP; the SJ area has been the only place to see a provincial NDP member in recent history, and maybe its Cardys ploy to play to a new constituency but without sitting members there on the sidelines.
If the NDP gets anywhere over 30% is this going to be seen as a "moral" victory... if the Liberals do as bad as were suggesting; could this not help the NDP in its building?

[Hatman 🍁]

Yikes! Cardy finishes third. The Liberals actually increased their vote (how!?)

Ted Flemming (PC)   1625    38.26    -18.31
John Wilcox (Lib)            1328    31.27    +2.87
Dominic Cardy (NDP)    1158    27.27    +18.30
Sharon Murphy (Grn)   69    1.62            -4.43
Marjorie MacMurray (I)   62    1.46    

The NDP got about what they did in the federal election, meaning there is a cap at how much support they can get. Looks like while there was legitimate anger at the Tories, some of that went to the Liberals, who did not bleed their support to the NDP like predicted.

[DL]

The day the byelection was called if you had said the NDP would win almost 28% of the vote and triple its % of the vote in Rothesay - people would have said you were crazy. Of the 55 ridings in New Brunswick this one is just about #55 in winnability for the NDP - so I think that while some people might have gotten a bit carried away about Cardy's chances - in the end he achieved his inititial objective which was to greatly increase the popular vote and raise his profile with the media across the province - which he did.

[Hatman 🍁]

While it's a "good" result, it's only 1% more than we got there federally.

[DL]

Federally the NDP took 29% of the vote in NB last year...if they managed to repeat that performance and get 29% or 30% in the 2014 provincial election it would probably means about 9 or 10 seats in the NB legislature...nothing to sneer at. In Sept. 2010 the NB NDP took 10% of the vote. In May 2011 the federal NDP took 29% in NB - if the provincial NDP can get anywhere near the level of support the federal party had - it would be a success beyond anyone's wildest dreams.

[Holmes]

... it's a Conservative suburban district in New Brunswick. Why were you all cheering for an NDP win?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sugar

[lilTommy]

... it's a Conservative suburban district in New Brunswick. Why were you all cheering for an NDP win?

Because i don't necessarily think all rich/and or suburabanites are conservatives; and if we put in the resources and do the ground work... they can be winable. Look at the results the NDP clearly is the party with momentum growing its vote almost 20% with a candidate who is not from the community, albeit the leader but still this is NB, and this is a good result.
Is the NBL that embedded in the province? NB feels like NS in the 80s-90s the two old parties just trading places and the NDP just nowhere... But this is a good result, not sure what the NBNDPs plan is but in this province, i think strategic concentration of resources is the only way to win.

[Hatman 🍁]

Federally the NDP took 29% of the vote in NB last year...if they managed to repeat that performance and get 29% or 30% in the 2014 provincial election it would probably means about 9 or 10 seats in the NB legislature...nothing to sneer at. In Sept. 2010 the NB NDP took 10% of the vote. In May 2011 the federal NDP took 29% in NB - if the provincial NDP can get anywhere near the level of support the federal party had - it would be a success beyond anyone's wildest dreams.

If only Cardy could run in every riding. In the federal election, it was as if Jack was running in every election.

[DL]

Cardy is a competent leader, but according to the polls he is still relatively unknown and does not run ahead of the party in popularity. This was actually the first time in his life that he had run for public office. He is not (at least not yet) the Jack Layton of New Brunswick...he is more comparable to Alexa MacDonough in the early 1980s - competent, still unknown to 95% of the population etc...Let's also keep in mind that this byelection was called very very fast - literally within a week of the seat becoming vacant. The number of NDP members in Rothesay could literally be counted on one hand and a campaign had to be built from scratch - the PC and Libs on the other hand have long, long histories of being competitive there and have organizational machines that totally dwarf anything the NDP can put in place on such short notice.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's a good result, but you have to admit you predicted a win. Even I predicted ~40%. So, he didn't do as well as we thought.

[MaxQue]

Well, to me, it looks like a very good result for that kind of area for provincial NDP.

[Holmes]

It's a respectable showing. The only problem is that it was the leader running, so the numbers were inflated a tad.

[adma]

I guess this'd be like Brian Topp running in Etobicoke Centre...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Now there's an amusing mental picture for anyone who can't quite disassociate that particular name from Spaced...

[MaxQue]

I'll draw a map of Argenteuil results.
However, I can't draw a map of LaFontaine, as the number of precincts changed (141 in 2008, 132 in 2012).

No problem with Argenteuil, which kept its 149 precincts.