Canadian by-elections, 2012
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2012  (Read 86389 times)
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #75 on: March 20, 2012, 09:06:41 AM »

if Ottawa was anything like TO, the Liberals ran a very very heavy strategic voting line... scare monerging those in urban seats that the liberals had to win otherwise the tories would be the government. there was noise that in York South Weston the grits ran a not-so-qiet anti-gay campaign against the NDPs Ferrera (sp). So i think there was so last minute swing of those who voted NDP in may to the liberals fearing the tories and going with the better the devil you know.
I told y'all about the Sarah Thomson story her fear mongering me... i almost scratched her eyes out Tongue jk

There was a strategic voting scare. It made me very angry at the Liberals for being intellectually dishonest with people like that. I couldn't go through a day in that campaign without overhearing someone on the phone's trying to explain to a voter that voting for us would not help the Liberals. Are people really that gullible?

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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #76 on: March 23, 2012, 09:20:00 PM »

Third parties have a tendency to collapse to almost nothing in by-elections closely contested by two parties. It happened to the NDP in Vaughan and to the Conservatives when Lamoureux picked up Winnipeg North - way lower in both cases than the general either before or after. By-elections are more dependent on actually having a local operation.

Meanwhile, two provincial by-elections have been called for April 19 in BC - Chilliwack and Port Moody-Coquitlam. Both are Liberal seats, but given recent polling the NDP should mount a strong challenge in Port Moody-Coquitlam, and if the BC Conservative surge is real then maybe even Chilliwack could be threatened.
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Holmes
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« Reply #77 on: April 27, 2012, 05:56:53 PM »
« Edited: April 27, 2012, 06:00:35 PM by Holmes »

Oh boy. Elizabeth Witmer, PC MPP for Kitchener-Waterloo, is resigning. Libs only need one more seat for that delicious majority.

While the seat is vacant, McGuinty technically doesn't need support from the other parties to pass legislation, right? Think he's going to keep the NDP concessions?
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #78 on: April 27, 2012, 06:24:31 PM »

I'll go ahead and say that there's zero chance that the Liberals gain that seat. Right now, the Liberals still don't have a majority; they have exactly half the seats, which isn't enough.
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #79 on: April 27, 2012, 07:15:44 PM »

Besides, wouldn't it look.. not good for the Liberals to come to some (seemingly cordial) agreement out in the open and then immediately backtrack on most of the concessions just because of a vacancy? The last thing they need right now, one would assume, would be bad press. Especially with a by-election in a seat they would hope to win.
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Holmes
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« Reply #80 on: April 27, 2012, 08:16:46 PM »

We're talking about Dalton McGuinty, right?
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adma
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« Reply #81 on: April 27, 2012, 08:53:03 PM »

It'd be interesting, and not all that implausible (depending on who's nominated), if the NDP wins that seat...
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Holmes
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« Reply #82 on: April 27, 2012, 09:14:30 PM »

Keep dreaming.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #83 on: April 28, 2012, 12:01:25 AM »

This is going be the most important by-election in provincial history. Or at least recent history. It's certainly winnable by the Liberals, although perhaps not in this climate.  I'll definitely be rooting for the Tories in this one, unless the NDP does have a shot.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #84 on: April 28, 2012, 12:12:08 AM »

By the way, the federal NDP held the riding between 1968 and 1979.  It is normally a Liberal riding though. The federal Liberals did really well in 2011 and they put up good numbers against Witmer in the Fall. A strong NDP campaign might create a large enough vote split though the keep the Liberals from winning.
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Holmes
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« Reply #85 on: April 28, 2012, 12:37:31 AM »

I'm hoping for a PC hold as well.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #86 on: April 28, 2012, 12:44:44 AM »

I should've posted this earlier, but here is the poll by poll map for the entire province: http://www.globalnews.ca/pages/topicNew.aspx?id=6442556629
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Bacon King
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« Reply #87 on: April 28, 2012, 04:10:51 AM »

Maybe I'm missing something here, but wouldn't a Liberal victory in the by-election be completely irrelevant?

The Speaker is a Liberal, and he's bound by the same rules as the Speaker of the House of Commons, correct? (e.g., he has no vote except to break a tie, and even when breaking a tie is obligated to vote against amendments and final passages)

So even if the Grits gain a seat, the new breakdown would be 54-36-17, but in terms of votes it'd only be 53 for the government and 53 for the opposition, with the tie-breaking vote going to a Speaker who votes down everything, so the Liberals would still need to be getting outside support to get things passed.

Is this not correct? I'll admit I'm making some assumptions here; I'm not entirely sure the Speaker's casting vote works like that in Ontario, especially since they do get to keep their label and everything.
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adma
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« Reply #88 on: April 28, 2012, 04:41:43 AM »

By the way, the federal NDP held the riding between 1968 and 1979.  It is normally a Liberal riding though.

Remember that back then, the riding was much larger and rather strangely configured, reaching all the way down to Cambridge.

Even so, for the NDP to do well isn't out of the question: keep in mind that its federal (and by proxy, maybe, provincial) vote in 2011 was probably significantly "suppressed" by former Liberal MP Andrew Telegdi absorbing so much of the nominal anti-Tory energy--the inverse of the cratering-ex-incumbent situation in Brant, Welland, etc...
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DL
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« Reply #89 on: April 28, 2012, 08:39:19 AM »

There is no good reason why the NDP cannot be competitive in Waterloo, particularly when the party is over 30% in the polls province-wide. It's a very middle class typical Ontario place that is not that different in its makeup from ridings the NDP wins like London-Fanshawe. It's hard to judge by recent election results since the NDP did not target the riding at all and left it as a conservative/Liberal face off. If the NDP spends the maximum allowed and sends in the troops and gets a good candidate (all of which I expect they will) don't be surprised to see the NDP very much in contention here.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #90 on: April 28, 2012, 08:54:06 AM »

FTR the riding also has the University of Waterloo, making it a "university riding". The NDP could win there, but I don't know. It didn't even go NDP in 1990, when it was an open seat. That was Witmer's first victory, where she got 37% . The NDP was 2nd at 29% and Telegdi, was running for the Liberals, and got 24%. BTW, if he runs, he'll likely win.

Side note: Why is this riding called Kitchener-Waterloo, anyways? It should be Waterloo-Kitchener. I know the metro area is called K-W, but this riding is mostly a Waterloo riding.
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Holmes
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« Reply #91 on: April 28, 2012, 10:28:58 AM »

I should've posted this earlier, but here is the poll by poll map for the entire province: http://www.globalnews.ca/pages/topicNew.aspx?id=6442556629

Gosh. My poll almost went PC.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #92 on: April 28, 2012, 10:47:36 AM »

My poll had a 26% turnout lol, but we won over 50% of the vote here. It appears we did the best in low turnout areas, which might explain why we lost.
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Holmes
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« Reply #93 on: April 28, 2012, 10:49:57 AM »

Mine was 41%. That's depressing. I'm upset now.
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adma
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« Reply #94 on: April 28, 2012, 11:14:05 AM »

FTR the riding also has the University of Waterloo, making it a "university riding". The NDP could win there, but I don't know. It didn't even go NDP in 1990, when it was an open seat. That was Witmer's first victory, where she got 37% . The NDP was 2nd at 29% and Telegdi, was running for the Liberals, and got 24%. BTW, if he runs, he'll likely win.

Re 1990, I'd offer that it was an odd circumstance in an overall odd election, and that it probably would have gone NDP had Witmer, through her strong 2nd place finish in '87, not been positioned as the official "pox on the Peterson house" choice around these parts.  (And for the record, pre-Witmer it was solidly provincial Liberal for years under Ernie Epp, back when the Liberals were something of a "SW Ontario Heartland" provincial party of record.)

And also, within the present boundaries (i.e. factoring out rural Wellesley and Woolwich and taking in the northern fringe of Kitchener), K-W would have been nominally NDP in 1990.

All that, plus Telegdi's federal record, helps to affirm the "more a Witmer seat than a PC seat" argument--but even if Telegdi were the standard-bearer, the biggest crimp for the McGuinty Liberals, currently, is their low (and even 3rd-place?!?) standing in the polls.  It's in light of apparent Horwathmania that I'm offering a "monitor the NDP" argument; at any rate, I doubt we're back to the old pattern of such byelections working out as straight PC-Lib slugfests with NDP marginalized into single digits (or behind-the-Greens) anymore...
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #95 on: April 28, 2012, 11:38:05 AM »

Is there a reason for the NDP surge in Ontario and nationally lately? Mulcair bump?
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #96 on: April 28, 2012, 12:14:29 PM »

FTR the riding also has the University of Waterloo, making it a "university riding". The NDP could win there, but I don't know. It didn't even go NDP in 1990, when it was an open seat. That was Witmer's first victory, where she got 37% . The NDP was 2nd at 29% and Telegdi, was running for the Liberals, and got 24%. BTW, if he runs, he'll likely win.

Re 1990, I'd offer that it was an odd circumstance in an overall odd election, and that it probably would have gone NDP had Witmer, through her strong 2nd place finish in '87, not been positioned as the official "pox on the Peterson house" choice around these parts.  (And for the record, pre-Witmer it was solidly provincial Liberal for years under Ernie Epp, back when the Liberals were something of a "SW Ontario Heartland" provincial party of record.)

And also, within the present boundaries (i.e. factoring out rural Wellesley and Woolwich and taking in the northern fringe of Kitchener), K-W would have been nominally NDP in 1990.

All that, plus Telegdi's federal record, helps to affirm the "more a Witmer seat than a PC seat" argument--but even if Telegdi were the standard-bearer, the biggest crimp for the McGuinty Liberals, currently, is their low (and even 3rd-place?!?) standing in the polls.  It's in light of apparent Horwathmania that I'm offering a "monitor the NDP" argument; at any rate, I doubt we're back to the old pattern of such byelections working out as straight PC-Lib slugfests with NDP marginalized into single digits (or behind-the-Greens) anymore...

Herb Epp. Not Ernie Epp. Ernie was an NDP MP in the 1980s.
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Holmes
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« Reply #97 on: April 28, 2012, 01:24:28 PM »

Is there a reason for the NDP surge in Ontario and nationally lately? Mulcair bump?

Many things. Nationally, Mulcair helps, definitely. The Tories have also been pretty incompetent lately (unpopular budget, lying about F-35's, trust issues) and the NDP is now seen as the alternative, not the Liberals. Mulcair has a pretty good team and there has not been any gaffes (yet?).

Ontario's different. Sure, the NDP is in second place (provincially and federally), but who knows where that support is coming from? It might just be that the party is consolidating their support in ridings that they won last year? The Tories would still probably win 60+ ridings in the province even if the numbers are 37 Con - 31 NDP.
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adma
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« Reply #98 on: April 28, 2012, 03:40:14 PM »

Herb Epp. Not Ernie Epp. Ernie was an NDP MP in the 1980s.

Thanks.  All those elected Epps in the 80s blur into each other.
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adma
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« Reply #99 on: April 28, 2012, 03:44:17 PM »

Is there a reason for the NDP surge in Ontario and nationally lately? Mulcair bump?

Many things. Nationally, Mulcair helps, definitely. The Tories have also been pretty incompetent lately (unpopular budget, lying about F-35's, trust issues) and the NDP is now seen as the alternative, not the Liberals. Mulcair has a pretty good team and there has not been any gaffes (yet?).

Ontario's different. Sure, the NDP is in second place (provincially and federally), but who knows where that support is coming from? It might just be that the party is consolidating their support in ridings that they won last year? The Tories would still probably win 60+ ridings in the province even if the numbers are 37 Con - 31 NDP.

Provincially, actually, it appears to have a lot to do with Andrea Horwath's performance relative to the McGuinty minority-budget negotiations--she seems to have struck a popular (and populist) chord there...
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