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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2012  (Read 29689 times)
MaxQue
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« on: February 05, 2012, 01:53:35 pm »
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(if there is already a thread on that, please merge)

By-election in Toronto-Danforth called for March 12.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1 on: February 05, 2012, 02:09:43 pm »
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Here's the link. The only other by-election possibility right now (barring a death or resignation) is that Topp wins the NDP leadership and one of the Quebec frosh step down to make way for him.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/by-election-in-laytons-riding-scheduled-for-march-12/article2327105/
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« Reply #2 on: February 05, 2012, 03:06:42 pm »
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Woohoo! Finally...
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« Reply #3 on: February 05, 2012, 03:12:02 pm »
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haha, the article says Layton first won the riding in 1997. Fail.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #4 on: February 06, 2012, 08:26:09 am »
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HA! thats sad, i like the Globe... but do they have 12yr old working there? thats pretty pathetic. a simple wiki search will show he was elected in 04... he ran and lost in 97 to Mills... yesh

This will be interesting race... comparissons can Maybe go back as far as 76 but 87 would be more accurate since the ridings been re-drawn so much.
There is no Liberal candidate yet so thats going to hurt them since Scott has been out and about since being nominated and had National attention (as much as the media gave the NDP caucus retreat any). The Tories have made this the "liberals to lose" which i still find odd that they consider their main target the Liberals here... they are bent on destryoing them, but that might just give them some fire.
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« Reply #5 on: February 06, 2012, 10:58:02 am »
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Deflating, or preemptively halting, any Liberal momentum would benefit the Tories in Ontario more than an NDP defeat would, I believe, as blue Liberals seem to have been coming home in the past few months, and the NDP is still seen as a nonfactor in Ontario at the moment. Still, I'm sure an NDP defeat there would be good for the Tories too.
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EarlAW
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« Reply #6 on: February 06, 2012, 11:19:57 am »
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Making some demographic maps of the riding right now... Cheesy
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lilTommy
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« Reply #7 on: February 06, 2012, 11:51:54 am »
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Making some demographic maps of the riding right now... Cheesy

Beautiful! The North end, East York pools near the Don Valley and Polls in central Riverdale around around Bloor were liberal polls for sure.
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=98141.msg2063794#msg2063794

I'm thinking the result will look more lik 08 than 11. I can see that Holmes, when the Liberals lose the tories will have tried to paint it as a failure, an NDP is still not a sure thing i'm sure we all remember Winnipeg North. But here, so far, there is no "star" liberal candidate, no liberal candidate at all actually.
I don't know, the last few polls i've been seeing haven't shown much movement in the ontario numbers, so this is going to be a Lib/NDP battle, its the NDPs to lose really and if you listen to Scott hes pushing this as not a sure thing victory.
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EarlAW
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« Reply #8 on: February 06, 2012, 12:55:39 pm »
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There's a definite difference between the East York part of the riding and the Toronto part. The former is heavily Orthodox, Greek, etc, while the latter is heavily Chinese, and non religious.

Also, those Liberal bits from 2008 in the central-west part of the riding makes sense, because that's the wealthiest part of the riding.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #9 on: February 06, 2012, 01:22:20 pm »
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I find the riding odd in that respect, there is a real difference between the two divides; North of Bloor/South of bloor. If fact the south side is more relatable with the more eastern Beaches area, and in the propsed 04 redistribution had them combined into a new riding (Riverdale-Beaches or something like that).
The greek, orthodox dominated north was the most Liberal friendly area, the benefit to the NDP this time is in having Cllr Mary Fragedakis to bolster support in the north, a council seat that was dominated previously by ring-winger Case Ootes.

South Riverdale/Leslieville is more middle class but heavily gentrifying so becoming more liberal friendly since housing prices here are some of the fastest growing. But its also a huge bastian for artist, leftist and champagne socialist... think the successful fight againt the Walmart.

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Hatman
EarlAW
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« Reply #10 on: February 06, 2012, 03:07:29 pm »
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Here are the demographic maps! http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2012/02/toronto-danforth-demographic-maps.html

Apparently there was an error in the PMOs office, and the date of the by-election will actually be March 19.

Liberals decide on their candidate on Feb 9.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #11 on: February 06, 2012, 03:26:13 pm »
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Here are the demographic maps! http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2012/02/toronto-danforth-demographic-maps.html

Apparently there was an error in the PMOs office, and the date of the by-election will actually be March 19.

Liberals decide on their candidate on Feb 9.

Fantastic maps!
it will be interesting to see if those heavy greek, orthodox polls and the wealthier polls can once again be won by the liberals... a strong tory vote will hurt them for sure, but at this point they are fighting the greens for third. The Greens have nominated 11 candidate Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu

I just recently moved out of the riding, and for about 5 years i lived in the Queen-Broadview village... i never called it that, always stuck to South Riverdale.
Anywho, one thing to also note about Toronto-Danforth is that they have a very large quiet gay population... I think it was noted as having the second highest % after the obvious Toronto Centre. Location and housing market are primary reasons for this. This isn't something that i think the gov't has stats on... it just based on living there.
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« Reply #12 on: February 06, 2012, 03:42:16 pm »
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Too bad we can't have sexual orientation of the census, it would be really interesting... but people wouldn't want to answer the question.

As for calling it Queen-Broadview Village, that's just a name the I pulled out of my at atlas. It probably only refers to the shopping district in the area.
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adma
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« Reply #13 on: February 06, 2012, 07:35:01 pm »
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Also, those Liberal bits from 2008 in the central-west part of the riding makes sense, because that's the wealthiest part of the riding.

Sorta...but not entirely; it's like the Annex in that it was "champagne socialist" until the Green Shift Grits tilted the plate in their direction in '08...
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« Reply #14 on: February 06, 2012, 09:42:19 pm »
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I am completely unsurprised that your post providing demographic maps and an explanation thereof is at your usual high standard. Excellent work!
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #15 on: February 06, 2012, 10:27:42 pm »
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Nice maps, Earl.

Too bad we can't have sexual orientation of the census, it would be really interesting... but people wouldn't want to answer the question.

The Toronto Star used to have a series called Map of the Week and one time it was about same-sex marriage in the city, since addresses are obtainable from the marriage registry. Of course many people (gay or not) are unmarried, but the patterns are likely enough to be similar. Here's gay men and here's lesbians.
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« Reply #16 on: February 06, 2012, 10:42:20 pm »
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Interesting. The south part of the riding seems more eclectic and is therefore more gay friendly. But, if that map proves one thing, it's that gays like to live close to each other. They are quite similar to an ethnic group like that. It makes sense, it's harder to be gay and to live in areas with few gays, which would mean the area could be less understanding of them. 
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lilTommy
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« Reply #17 on: February 07, 2012, 08:28:22 am »
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Interesting. The south part of the riding seems more eclectic and is therefore more gay friendly. But, if that map proves one thing, it's that gays like to live close to each other. They are quite similar to an ethnic group like that. It makes sense, it's harder to be gay and to live in areas with few gays, which would mean the area could be less understanding of them.  

Exactly... i choose to live in Riverdale because it is less the "scene" much like Cabbagetown and the Annex, but is still very diverse, great streetscapes and close to the core; as well as has a small town charm but big city feel... ok i miss the hood.

adma - exaclty, I full expect those polls to go in favour of the Liberals this time around... but i think the NDP has a very good champagne socialist candidate in that he might just might be able to keep many of those polls for the NDP.

Liberals lagging?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberals-lagging-in-by-election-race-in-laytons-riding/article2328225/?from=sec368
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EarlAW
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« Reply #18 on: February 07, 2012, 09:59:51 am »
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Looks like the Liberal candidates aren't really that scary. Grant Gordon's ad: http://www.grantgordonliberal.com/eblasts/grant-liberal-nomination.html while humourous, admits in one part (or lies to us?) that the Liberals have no hope in the riding.

Ah well. And that article says the other Liberal guy is a former Green. Hmm.

Based on recent results in the riding, the NDP would be in real trouble if they dipped below 45%. Not in trouble of losing, but it would be a very bad result. I expect the party to get around 50%.
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« Reply #19 on: February 07, 2012, 11:16:40 am »
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Scratch that. If the NDP truly is only at 17% in the province (last Nanos poll), they are looking at about 44% in T-D, I'd say.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #20 on: February 07, 2012, 11:26:45 am »
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But... nanos seems to be the outlier for Ontario:

Abacus (jan 16-19) - 25%
Angus-Reid (jan 20-21) - 24%
Harris-decima (jan 12-22) - 26%
all around the same timeframa as the Nanos poll, so the numbers were seeing are not much lower then the 29% from May11
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Holmes
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« Reply #21 on: February 07, 2012, 11:26:54 am »
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I'd say mid to high 40's is a safe bet.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #22 on: February 07, 2012, 11:37:01 am »
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a great write up on Pundit's guide
http://www.punditsguide.ca/2012/02/goodbye-election-called-in-laytons-old-riding/

and if your looking for the poll-by-poll numbers here is the wonderful 506
http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/35094.html

I'm saying a repeat of 08 maybe 06, the NDP about 44-48%
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EarlAW
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« Reply #23 on: February 07, 2012, 12:19:50 pm »
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If the NDP is polling in the mid 20s province wide, then maybe the NDP will be able to break 50% in the riding.

Let's throw out 2011, because Jack's numbers were inflated for personal reasons. However, Peter Tabuns got 54% back in October. This is in a year where the NDP didn't do well in Toronto compared to the Liberals... but Tabuns increased his vote considerably, compared to other NDPers in the city. Incumbent advantage I guess?

The last time this seat was open (provincially or federally) was in 2006. Tabuns got 48%. The provincial party was polling around 20% at the time. Now, the NDP has historically done better provincially than federally in Toronto, so that's something to look at as well.

I'd say we're looking at a minimum of 44% (NDP tanks in the polls), and a maximum of 54%, which was Tabuns' percentage in October. You can average that out to 49%.

Ok, so howabout the Liberals. They will be boosted by the fact that the race is a by-election. They got 39% here in the 2006 by-election. They were polling between 34 and 41% at the time, province wide (provincially). I think that 39% is their maximum in this riding, especially since they are going to be running a weak candidate. The Tory vote will collapse into the Liberals however, and I don't think they'll get lower than their 2008 showing at 29%. This gives us an average of 34% for the Liberals.

The Tories wont be putting much effort into the race. They generally have a base of 9% in the riding, but in the Layton vs Mills match, it got down to 6%. I don't see that happening, and I'll say their minimum is 9%. If the Tories put on a good campaign, they can match the 14% they got in the federal election. That's puts their average at around 11% or 12%.

And the Greens? If the race is seen as close, their vote will be marginalized. They got 2% in the 2006 by-election, and 4% in the last provincial election. Their candidate got 6% in the federal election in May, and she is running again. I'd say the base for the Greens is 2%, and if everyone votes for her again, she'll max out at 6%. That gives us an average of 4%.

Others: Maximum they'll get is 2%, so I'll give them 1%. Does that add up? If you give the Tories 12%, it does! woohoo!
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #24 on: February 09, 2012, 03:06:43 pm »
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Liberal nomination meeting is tonight.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  »

- Charles de Gaulle


Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
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