Canadian by-elections, 2012

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I wonder if the Tories will finally begin to make inroads with Anglo Montreal over the next decade. Their performance last year was so piss poor that it's hard to imagine them ever doing very well there but there are a few seats that should be natural territory for them.

[RogueBeaver]

Though not all personally popular Liberal MPs won. Speaking as an NDG-Lachiner. Otherwise I agree with you.

[RogueBeaver]

I wonder if the Tories will finally begin to make inroads with Anglo Montreal over the next decade. Their performance last year was so piss poor that it's hard to imagine them ever doing very well there but there are a few seats that should be natural territory for them.

We're getting Mount Royal when Cotler retires in 2015, might have a shot at Lac St. Louis without Scarpaleggia. Westmount-Ville Marie isn't happening because the demographics are wrong- especially in the "Ville Marie" half, full of students and Plateau yuppies.

[DL]

I think the Tories will have a very hard time ever winning any anglo seats in Montreal. Anglo Montrealers are extremely socially liberal - even the wealthiest ones. For them toi vote Tory is like expecting someone in Beverly Hills to vote for George W. Bush. I think that when Cotler retires the NDP will make a major play for Mount Royal and the Liberals will drop out of the picture. Mulcair has major links to the Jewish community in Montreal and will probably recruit a star candidate who can make a respectable showing in Cote St. Luc and Hampstead and the rest of the riding is mostly francophone and allophone and abhors the Conservatives. The Tories had their big chance in mount Royal in 2011 and they blew it - it won't happen again.

Keep in mind that if there is one thing that unites Anglos in Montreal its a desire to keep Quebec in Canada. Now that the NDP is led by an anglo-Quebecer and is the voice of Quebec federally - the NDP has become almost reincarnation of the Liberals in the 70s in terms of being "the party of national unity". The Tories are hated in francophone Quebec and are the main reason why Quebec might want to separate - so the last thing anglos in Quebec want is for canada to have a government that hates Quebec.

[RogueBeaver]

They could run Itcush (who I know very well, BTW) again* and probably win if the Liberal vote goes mostly NDP. Otherwise I can't think of a star candidate who they'd run there. We'll definitely be running Zajdel again. What happened was that Cotler lost the Jewish vote but held enough Asians to win. For a man who won 92% at his first election... quite the photo finish.

*Problem is that they shunt him around a lot. He's been their candidate in a couple of other ridings over the years.

[DL]

I think Itcush only ran once before in the 90s for the NDP and it may also have been in mount Royal. Keep in mind that redistribution may also change the boundaries etc...

There are probably all kinds of high profile people the NDP could run in Mount Royal - there may be municipal politicians from Snowdon or TMR or CSL etc...or people from the school boards remember this will be the government in waiting in 2015. Anyone who is ambitious with vaguely centre-left views on economic and social issues will be a possible candidate. Julius Grey says he wants to run next time for the NDP. Maybe he would try mount Royal?

[RogueBeaver]

He ran against Dion in '97 and Coderre in '00. As for Grey, no idea.

[Senator MaxQue]

From what I heard, he chose to run there, and given the structuration of the party, the riding associations are existing now and an now decide candidates.

And I think than prospective star candidates will run for the investiture in other, more likely to be won ridings.

[Senator MaxQue]

I think Itcush only ran once before in the 90s for the NDP and it may also have been in mount Royal. Keep in mind that redistribution may also change the boundaries etc...

There are probably all kinds of high profile people the NDP could run in Mount Royal - there may be municipal politicians from Snowdon or TMR or CSL etc...or people from the school boards remember this will be the government in waiting in 2015. Anyone who is ambitious with vaguely centre-left views on economic and social issues will be a possible candidate. Julius Grey says he wants to run next time for the NDP. Maybe he would try mount Royal?

The Snowdon councillor is not left-wing and I doubt very much than TMR has a left-wing councillor. What's CSL?

Last time, Gray as rumored in Westmount--Ville-Marie.

[RogueBeaver]

I think Itcush only ran once before in the 90s for the NDP and it may also have been in mount Royal. Keep in mind that redistribution may also change the boundaries etc...

There are probably all kinds of high profile people the NDP could run in Mount Royal - there may be municipal politicians from Snowdon or TMR or CSL etc...or people from the school boards remember this will be the government in waiting in 2015. Anyone who is ambitious with vaguely centre-left views on economic and social issues will be a possible candidate. Julius Grey says he wants to run next time for the NDP. Maybe he would try mount Royal?

The Snowdon councillor is not left-wing and I doubt very much than TMR has a left-wing councillor. What's CSL?

Last time, Gray as rumored in Westmount--Ville-Marie.

CSL = Cote St. Luc.

[Hatman]

Important map for this discussion:

[lilTommy]

Important map for this discussion:

Thanks Hatman... one note, the Vieux-Rosemont ward is now held by Project Montreal, they won the by-election just held (an activist beat two previous elected officials, nicely done) That creates a huge green patch in central montreal Le Plateau-Rosemont-Sainte-Anne. I could see a Vision councillor possibly run for the NDP but they seem tied to the Blog, same for Union and the Liberals. PM is probably going to focus on winning council so you might not see to many run federall unless a Plateau council take a run as they "own" that area.
federally the NDP should be working on Ahuntsic and WMV... two polar opposite strategies too... in Ahuntsic a soft souverentist ala Boulerice (sp) would do well here, PM has a councillor there too; In WMV a anglo-federalist type who Westounters would be ok with ala Legace-Dowson could win it. Bourassa and SMSL i think are too ethnic-liberal attached right now... the NDP would need to make huge inroads/have a local ethnic candidate, which i don't know if the NDP has done enough work in those two areas to win-em over. Papineau would be a win if Trudeau wasn't around.
BUt were off topic on the by-elections... Any news on who the candidates are in Kitchener-Waterloo?

[Kuu ülevaade olulisematest]

I agree, but I don't think the Liberals will ever completely vanish - they will rattle along like the British Liberals as a distant third party punished heavily by the FPTP system and reduced to 20-30 seats that will be combination of idiosyncratic seats that happen to have a personally popular Liberal MP and about 10-15 seats across the country that will be the "Liberal base" in that they are larded with rich professionals - and that's it. The Canadian Liberals like their British counterpart will go to bed every night praying that there will be an election that is so close between the two big parties - NDP and CPC that they have the balance of power and can be tossed a few scraps from the adult table.

It's worth noting that there are plenty of examples in the provinces of Liberal parties disappearing altogether; as far as I can tell, there are no comparable examples with provincial NDPs.

[lilTommy]

New Brunswick and PEI are the only Prov. NDP wings that have almost reached that point of disapearing... PEI more so where they poll about even with the greens. In NB they suffer from having no incumbents and no major centres to form a base (maybe Saint John but since Weir retired they haven't won a seat). NB seems the best place to start to rebuild over PEI

[DL]

To disappear, you need to exist in the first place. In New Brunswick the NDP has never had more than one seat so it cannot be compared to a province like Manitoba where the Liberals were once government and then official opposition before being annihilated. Things are changing in NB, the federal NDP took 29% of the vote there last year and recent polls have the NB NDP in the low to mid 20s - which would be more than enough to start winning seats in Saint John and maybe Fredericton or Moncton and the Northeast

[Senator MaxQue]

Also, the Rivière-des-Prairies--Pointe-aux-Trembles borough mayorship was won by Vision in a by-election.

[Hatman]

The by-election in Rothesay, NB will be held June 25.

[Kuu ülevaade olulisematest]

To disappear, you need to exist in the first place. In New Brunswick the NDP has never had more than one seat so it cannot be compared to a province like Manitoba where the Liberals were once government and then official opposition before being annihilated. Things are changing in NB, the federal NDP took 29% of the vote there last year and recent polls have the NB NDP in the low to mid 20s - which would be more than enough to start winning seats in Saint John and maybe Fredericton or Moncton and the Northeast

To be fair, a lot of the NDP vote in New Brunswick is just the result of Yvon Godin's extreme popularity.

[Hatman]

To disappear, you need to exist in the first place. In New Brunswick the NDP has never had more than one seat so it cannot be compared to a province like Manitoba where the Liberals were once government and then official opposition before being annihilated. Things are changing in NB, the federal NDP took 29% of the vote there last year and recent polls have the NB NDP in the low to mid 20s - which would be more than enough to start winning seats in Saint John and maybe Fredericton or Moncton and the Northeast

To be fair, a lot of the NDP vote in New Brunswick is just the result of Yvon Godin's extreme popularity.

True, but there is some residual strength there now. It's gotten to the point that if Godin were to retire, the NDP would have a shot in keeping the seat. That could not be said for most his elections.

[DL]

Godin's popularity in his riding helps drive up the province-wide NDP vote, but let's not forget that the NDP candidate also took 32% in Sain John in federal election and therte was also a near win in Moncton in a tight three way race.

[Sibboleth]

Besides, in the era of NPD Québec there's a certain additional logic in that particular part of NB be orange, right?

[Hatman]

Yes, although you'd think Madawaska-Restigouche would also go NDP, but it's rather Tory friendly (just look at the area provincially)

[DL]

Yes, although you'd think Madawaska-Restigouche would also go NDP, but it's rather Tory friendly (just look at the area provincially)

We shall see how "Tory-friendly" Madawaska-Restigouche becomes after the Tory cuts to Employment Insurance come into effect. In that riding a vast percentage of the population gets EI and people will render a harsh verdict on anyone who tampers with the system. 

[mileslunn]

Yes, although you'd think Madawaska-Restigouche would also go NDP, but it's rather Tory friendly (just look at the area provincially)

Actually it depends on how the riding is divided in the new one.  I should note Madawaska County despite being heavily Francophone is fairly Conservative, but Restigouche County was almost a perfect three way split so the NDP did do quite well there.  Restigouche County is also a coastal one with a lot of seasonal workers thus they would lean more left whereas Madawaska County is an inland one so more agriculture, forestry, as well as a fair number of small business owners.  In any small town you have certain necessities (grocery store, restaurant, gas station, hotel etc.) so the percentage who are business owners tends to be higher than in urban areas.  Generally speaking those who own businesses tend to lean to the right.  Yes rural areas are often poorer but most small business owners don't tend to make a lot of money, however the lower taxes are and the less regulation they have the better for them.  As for EI, I agree this could hurt them in Atlantic Canada much like it did the Liberals in 1997, but I suspect the Tories will be more cautious after all having almost no seats east of the Ottawa River makes winning a majority pretty much next to impossible even with the new seats in Ontario and the West.

[mileslunn]

Godin's popularity in his riding helps drive up the province-wide NDP vote, but let's not forget that the NDP candidate also took 32% in Sain John in federal election and therte was also a near win in Moncton in a tight three way race.

I think the riding would be a lot more competitive without Godin, but it is quite possible the NDP would have held it in 2011.  That being said I am pretty sure it would have gone Liberal in 2000, 2004, 2006, and 2008 without him.  As for the province without him, it was 47% Conservative, 24% NDP, 24% Liberal, mind you even without him I am pretty sure this would have been one of the Tory's weaker ridings thus they might have gotten 45 or 46% instead of the 44% they got, while the NDP still would gotten in the upper 20s and Liberals low 20s.  Nonetheless the gap would be wider.