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| | |-+  Canadian by-elections, 2012
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2012  (Read 27959 times)
Hatman
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« Reply #225 on: June 03, 2012, 07:32:57 am »
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I was looking at the federal results in Rothesay, and the NDP actually did quite well in the area. They only won one poll, but probably got around 30% of the vote in the area. I don't think "tripling" the vote will be enough for a credible performance here. Cardy probably wont win, but he needs to aim for at least in the 30s, which I dont think is unreasonable.
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Hatman
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« Reply #226 on: June 06, 2012, 12:59:13 pm »
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A special treat I've been working on:

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mileslunn
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« Reply #227 on: June 06, 2012, 05:57:16 pm »
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A special treat I've been working on:



Probably explains why the Liberals came in second but didn't win any polls unlike the NDP.  The NDP is strongest near the city centre which is the least conservative part of the riding, otherwise the area in Calgary-Buffalo whereas the areas the Liberals came in second tend to be the more conservative parts of the riding anyways.  If Joe Clark's old riding boundaries were used for Calgary Centre the Tories might only get a plurality as the Bow River straddled the centre, not the edge so it encompassed the whole central area not just the southern half (otherwise both Calgary-Buffalo and Calgary-Mountainview).
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Hatman
EarlAW
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« Reply #228 on: June 06, 2012, 08:25:32 pm »
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Yes, the Alliance won a plurality in 2000 with present borders:

Canadian Alliance: 44.9%
Progressive Conservative: 36.0%
Liberal: 13.2%
New Democratic Party: 3.4%

The 2000 map is quite interesting, I'll have to make another map. The Alliance was actually quite strong in downtown Calgary, but not that strong in the wealthy Mt Royal area.
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Hatman
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« Reply #229 on: June 06, 2012, 10:02:55 pm »
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Didn't take that long to make:

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Hatman
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« Reply #230 on: June 10, 2012, 11:13:37 pm »
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New post on the by-elections today: New post on the Quebec by-elections: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/06/quebec-provincial-by-elections-today.html

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« Reply #231 on: June 11, 2012, 09:12:59 pm »
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LaFontaine is a clear Liberal win, but, quite underwhelming (they are now at 53%, which is quite weak for them there).

Argenteuil is very tight, PQ and Liberals are in a close race since earlier and both led at some point.
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Hatman
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« Reply #232 on: June 11, 2012, 09:52:11 pm »
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OMG looks like the PQ will win Argenteuil. 10 polls left to go:

Richer, Roland (P.Q.)   6 470   36,20 %   510
Proulx, Lise (P.L.Q./Q.L.P.)   5 960   33,34 %   
Laframboise, Mario (C.A.Q.)   3 831   21,43 %   
Sabourin, Claude (P.V.Q./G.P.Q.)   534   2,99 %   
Zanetti, Yvan (Q.S.)   482   2,70 %   
Sabourin, Patrick (O.N.)   237   1,33 %   
Lecavalier, Jean (P.CO.Q.)   185   1,04 %   
Lapointe, Georges (IND)   150   0,84 %   
Nicolas, Gérald (É.A.)   26   0,15 %   

Another botched prediction by me Sad
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« Reply #233 on: June 11, 2012, 09:53:51 pm »
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The Le Devoir folks will be giddy tomorrow morning, that's for sure. Maromentum.
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Hatman
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« Reply #234 on: June 11, 2012, 10:06:58 pm »
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That's the first time the PQ has ever won Argenteuil, by the way.

LaFontaine (final results)

Tanguay, Marc (P.L.Q./Q.L.P.)   5 446   53,32 %   3 710
St-Jean, Frédéric (P.Q.)   1 736   17,00 %   
Cavaliere, Domenico (C.A.Q.)   1 591   15,58 %   
Rivard, Sébastien (Q.S.)   603   5,90 %   
Bérard, Gaëtan (P.V.Q./G.P.Q.)   308   3,02 %   
Zambito, Paolo (O.N.)   167   1,64 %   
Raza, Patrice (P.CO.Q.)   129   1,26 %   
Beauchesne, Marc-André (IND)   104   1,02 %   
Blais, Renaud (P.N.)   88   0,86 %   
Boivin, Guy (É.A.)   42   0,41 %   

Not very good numbers for the Liberals who got almost 70% last time.
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« Reply #235 on: June 11, 2012, 10:09:20 pm »
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The drop in LaFontaine isn't good for Liberals and I'm shocked by the result in Argenteuil.

Well, I suppose than PQ would win an election, if held today, if they are able to win places like Argenteuil and have swings like that against them.
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« Reply #236 on: June 11, 2012, 10:10:16 pm »
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PLQ spin: By-elections don't mean much.

PQ spin: When we win a seat that's been Liberal since Confederation, that's a BFD and Charest will be swept out whenever he pulls the plug.
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Hatman
EarlAW
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« Reply #237 on: June 11, 2012, 10:12:34 pm »
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Terrible night for CAQ.

Vote change in LaFontaine

Liberals: -16.44
PQ: -2.11
CAQ: +9.08 (from ADQ)
QS: +3.18
PVQ: +0.29

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« Reply #238 on: June 11, 2012, 10:13:45 pm »
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The ADQ/CAQ surges happen every 4-5 years. 2002, 2006-7, 2011-2. Now they're back where they, IMO, belong. Tongue
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Hatman
EarlAW
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« Reply #239 on: June 11, 2012, 10:19:01 pm »
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LOL the Conservatives finish 7th in LaFontaine.
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« Reply #240 on: June 11, 2012, 10:23:22 pm »
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LOL the Conservatives finish 7th in LaFontaine.

Who?
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Hatman
EarlAW
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« Reply #241 on: June 11, 2012, 10:23:22 pm »
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Turnout in LaFontaine: 26% (lol; usually they have really good participation)
In Argenteuil: 42%

Final Argenteuil numbers:

Richer, Roland (P.Q.)   6 568   36,16 %   +2.54
Proulx, Lise (P.L.Q./Q.L.P.)   6 067   33,40 %   -16.18
Laframboise, Mario (C.A.Q.)   3 887   21,40 % +10.16
Sabourin, Claude (P.V.Q./G.P.Q.)   543   2,99 %  -0.49
Zanetti, Yvan (Q.S.)   490   2,70 %   +0.61
Sabourin, Patrick (O.N.)   243   1,34 %   
Lecavalier, Jean (P.CO.Q.)   190   1,05 %   
Lapointe, Georges (IND)   151   0,83 %   
Nicolas, Gérald (É.A.)   26   0,14 %
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« Reply #242 on: June 11, 2012, 10:23:52 pm »
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So the PLQ vote went CAQ.
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Hatman
EarlAW
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« Reply #243 on: June 11, 2012, 10:25:30 pm »
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So the PLQ vote went CAQ.

I thought it would be the PQ vote that went to the CAQ.

The Conservatives finished 7th in Argenteuil as well. lololol
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« Reply #244 on: June 11, 2012, 10:30:51 pm »
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LOL the Conservatives finish 7th in LaFontaine.

Who?

I think it's run by a former Tory MP of Quebec City. Daniel Petit (Charlesbourg)?

EDIT: No, Luc Harvey (Louis-Hébert), through Petit sits on the executive.
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Hatman
EarlAW
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« Reply #245 on: June 11, 2012, 10:34:32 pm »
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So, the Liberals took a 16 point hit in both ridings. That would imply that they are actually at 26% province wide.

The PQ change in both ridings were minor, a slight increase in Argenteuil, and a slight dip on LaFontaine.

CAQ gained 9-10% from the ADQ's mark in 2008. That would imply they are actually at where the Liberals are across the province, at 26%. Maybe not so bad news?

QS saw minor gains in both ridings.

LOL the Conservatives finish 7th in LaFontaine.

Who?

I think it's run by a former Tory MP of Quebec City. Daniel Petit (Charlesbourg)?

EDIT: No, Luc Harvey (Louis-Hébert), through Petit sits on the executive.

I think he was being facetious.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #246 on: June 11, 2012, 10:38:35 pm »
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Media is reporting than Liberals are now at 63 seats, which is a very very thin majority.
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« Reply #247 on: June 11, 2012, 10:40:44 pm »
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Media is reporting than Liberals are now at 63 seats, which is a very very thin majority.

The thinnest possible, not seen since the last Unionist hurrah over 4 decades ago. Tongue
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Judäischen Volksfront
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« Reply #248 on: June 14, 2012, 10:54:17 pm »
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SCC will be hearing about Etobicoke Centre in July. If Opitz and Harper are convinced of their mandate to the public, they shouldn't fear and delay the by-election. After all, they'll get re-elected by a wider margin, right?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/supreme-court-to-interrupt-summer-break-to-hear-tossed-election-case/article4265075
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« Reply #249 on: June 20, 2012, 03:09:36 am »
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For the coming by-election in Rothesay:



Liberals were close of winning some polls in the west of the riding.
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