Canadian by-elections, 2012
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2012  (Read 86461 times)
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #225 on: June 06, 2012, 12:59:13 PM »

A special treat I've been working on:

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mileslunn
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« Reply #226 on: June 06, 2012, 05:57:16 PM »

A special treat I've been working on:



Probably explains why the Liberals came in second but didn't win any polls unlike the NDP.  The NDP is strongest near the city centre which is the least conservative part of the riding, otherwise the area in Calgary-Buffalo whereas the areas the Liberals came in second tend to be the more conservative parts of the riding anyways.  If Joe Clark's old riding boundaries were used for Calgary Centre the Tories might only get a plurality as the Bow River straddled the centre, not the edge so it encompassed the whole central area not just the southern half (otherwise both Calgary-Buffalo and Calgary-Mountainview).
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #227 on: June 06, 2012, 08:25:32 PM »

Yes, the Alliance won a plurality in 2000 with present borders:

Canadian Alliance: 44.9%
Progressive Conservative: 36.0%
Liberal: 13.2%
New Democratic Party: 3.4%

The 2000 map is quite interesting, I'll have to make another map. The Alliance was actually quite strong in downtown Calgary, but not that strong in the wealthy Mt Royal area.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #228 on: June 06, 2012, 10:02:55 PM »

Didn't take that long to make:

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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #229 on: June 10, 2012, 11:13:37 PM »

New post on the by-elections today: New post on the Quebec by-elections: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/06/quebec-provincial-by-elections-today.html

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MaxQue
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« Reply #230 on: June 11, 2012, 09:12:59 PM »

LaFontaine is a clear Liberal win, but, quite underwhelming (they are now at 53%, which is quite weak for them there).

Argenteuil is very tight, PQ and Liberals are in a close race since earlier and both led at some point.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #231 on: June 11, 2012, 09:52:11 PM »

OMG looks like the PQ will win Argenteuil. 10 polls left to go:

Richer, Roland (P.Q.)   6 470   36,20 %   510
Proulx, Lise (P.L.Q./Q.L.P.)   5 960   33,34 %   
Laframboise, Mario (C.A.Q.)   3 831   21,43 %   
Sabourin, Claude (P.V.Q./G.P.Q.)   534   2,99 %   
Zanetti, Yvan (Q.S.)   482   2,70 %   
Sabourin, Patrick (O.N.)   237   1,33 %   
Lecavalier, Jean (P.CO.Q.)   185   1,04 %   
Lapointe, Georges (IND)   150   0,84 %   
Nicolas, Gérald (É.A.)   26   0,15 %   

Another botched prediction by me Sad
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #232 on: June 11, 2012, 09:53:51 PM »

The Le Devoir folks will be giddy tomorrow morning, that's for sure. Maromentum.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #233 on: June 11, 2012, 10:06:58 PM »

That's the first time the PQ has ever won Argenteuil, by the way.

LaFontaine (final results)

Tanguay, Marc (P.L.Q./Q.L.P.)   5 446   53,32 %   3 710
St-Jean, Frédéric (P.Q.)   1 736   17,00 %   
Cavaliere, Domenico (C.A.Q.)   1 591   15,58 %   
Rivard, Sébastien (Q.S.)   603   5,90 %   
Bérard, Gaëtan (P.V.Q./G.P.Q.)   308   3,02 %   
Zambito, Paolo (O.N.)   167   1,64 %   
Raza, Patrice (P.CO.Q.)   129   1,26 %   
Beauchesne, Marc-André (IND)   104   1,02 %   
Blais, Renaud (P.N.)   88   0,86 %   
Boivin, Guy (É.A.)   42   0,41 %   

Not very good numbers for the Liberals who got almost 70% last time.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #234 on: June 11, 2012, 10:09:20 PM »

The drop in LaFontaine isn't good for Liberals and I'm shocked by the result in Argenteuil.

Well, I suppose than PQ would win an election, if held today, if they are able to win places like Argenteuil and have swings like that against them.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #235 on: June 11, 2012, 10:10:16 PM »

PLQ spin: By-elections don't mean much.

PQ spin: When we win a seat that's been Liberal since Confederation, that's a BFD and Charest will be swept out whenever he pulls the plug.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #236 on: June 11, 2012, 10:12:34 PM »

Terrible night for CAQ.

Vote change in LaFontaine

Liberals: -16.44
PQ: -2.11
CAQ: +9.08 (from ADQ)
QS: +3.18
PVQ: +0.29

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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #237 on: June 11, 2012, 10:13:45 PM »

The ADQ/CAQ surges happen every 4-5 years. 2002, 2006-7, 2011-2. Now they're back where they, IMO, belong. Tongue
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #238 on: June 11, 2012, 10:19:01 PM »

LOL the Conservatives finish 7th in LaFontaine.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #239 on: June 11, 2012, 10:23:22 PM »

LOL the Conservatives finish 7th in LaFontaine.

Who?
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #240 on: June 11, 2012, 10:23:22 PM »

Turnout in LaFontaine: 26% (lol; usually they have really good participation)
In Argenteuil: 42%

Final Argenteuil numbers:

Richer, Roland (P.Q.)   6 568   36,16 %   +2.54
Proulx, Lise (P.L.Q./Q.L.P.)   6 067   33,40 %   -16.18
Laframboise, Mario (C.A.Q.)   3 887   21,40 % +10.16
Sabourin, Claude (P.V.Q./G.P.Q.)   543   2,99 %  -0.49
Zanetti, Yvan (Q.S.)   490   2,70 %   +0.61
Sabourin, Patrick (O.N.)   243   1,34 %   
Lecavalier, Jean (P.CO.Q.)   190   1,05 %   
Lapointe, Georges (IND)   151   0,83 %   
Nicolas, Gérald (É.A.)   26   0,14 %
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #241 on: June 11, 2012, 10:23:52 PM »

So the PLQ vote went CAQ.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #242 on: June 11, 2012, 10:25:30 PM »


I thought it would be the PQ vote that went to the CAQ.

The Conservatives finished 7th in Argenteuil as well. lololol
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MaxQue
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« Reply #243 on: June 11, 2012, 10:30:51 PM »
« Edited: June 11, 2012, 10:32:39 PM by Chemistry & Sleep Deprivation »


I think it's run by a former Tory MP of Quebec City. Daniel Petit (Charlesbourg)?

EDIT: No, Luc Harvey (Louis-Hébert), through Petit sits on the executive.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #244 on: June 11, 2012, 10:34:32 PM »

So, the Liberals took a 16 point hit in both ridings. That would imply that they are actually at 26% province wide.

The PQ change in both ridings were minor, a slight increase in Argenteuil, and a slight dip on LaFontaine.

CAQ gained 9-10% from the ADQ's mark in 2008. That would imply they are actually at where the Liberals are across the province, at 26%. Maybe not so bad news?

QS saw minor gains in both ridings.


I think it's run by a former Tory MP of Quebec City. Daniel Petit (Charlesbourg)?

EDIT: No, Luc Harvey (Louis-Hébert), through Petit sits on the executive.

I think he was being facetious.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #245 on: June 11, 2012, 10:38:35 PM »

Media is reporting than Liberals are now at 63 seats, which is a very very thin majority.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #246 on: June 11, 2012, 10:40:44 PM »

Media is reporting than Liberals are now at 63 seats, which is a very very thin majority.

The thinnest possible, not seen since the last Unionist hurrah over 4 decades ago. Tongue
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2952-0-0
exnaderite
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« Reply #247 on: June 14, 2012, 10:54:17 PM »

SCC will be hearing about Etobicoke Centre in July. If Opitz and Harper are convinced of their mandate to the public, they shouldn't fear and delay the by-election. After all, they'll get re-elected by a wider margin, right?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/supreme-court-to-interrupt-summer-break-to-hear-tossed-election-case/article4265075
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MaxQue
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« Reply #248 on: June 20, 2012, 03:09:36 AM »

For the coming by-election in Rothesay:



Liberals were close of winning some polls in the west of the riding.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #249 on: June 20, 2012, 08:40:08 AM »

Thanks, Max. I was going to make one myself, but I'll use yours. I know the Blunt Objects blog also made one...

What I will do is make a map showing the NDP strength in the area from the 2011 federal election.
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