Canadian by-elections, 2012

[RogueBeaver]

Sorry to disrupt the municipal politics talk (), but back OT Erin O'Toole will be launching his Durham bid tomorrow per Bourque.

[MaxQue]

Sorry to disrupt the municipal politics talk (), but back OT Erin O'Toole will be launching his Durham bid tomorrow per Bourque.

Bourque is a political blogger or analyst? I suppose you aren't talking about Geranium the First?

[RogueBeaver]

Sorry to disrupt the municipal politics talk (), but back OT Erin O'Toole will be launching his Durham bid tomorrow per Bourque.

Bourque is a political blogger or analyst? I suppose you aren't talking about Geranium the First?

Pierre Bourque. This guy. I'd also use Kinsella but he isn't saying anything about this by-election.


http://bourque.com/

[Hatman 🍁]

You could have easily segwayed from municipal politics to Bourque, as I believe he is a former city councillor here.

[MaxQue]

Which Pierre Bourque? That Pierre Bourque (in Ottawa? Toronto?), or the former mayor of Montreal also named Pierre Bourque (1993-2001), nicknamed Geramium the First, as said in a previous post?

[RogueBeaver]

The guy Hatman's talking about. Have you guys decided to rerun your 2011 candidate or not?

[Hatman 🍁]

The guy Hatman's talking about. Have you guys decided to rerun your 2011 candidate or not?

Uuuhh, kinda early dontchya think? By-election wont be until the Fall.

[MaxQue]

The guy Hatman's talking about. Have you guys decided to rerun your 2011 candidate or not?

Uuuhh, kinda early dontchya think? By-election wont be until the Fall.

So?
In perfect conditions, the ground campaign should be ready to run the day after the writs are launched, no?

[adma]

I thought I read somewhere that she's running again--then again, there seem to be indications that the Liberal candidate may be running again, either.

In any case, this byelection may well be a litmus on whether Ontario's ConLib seats gone ConNDP are set to continue that pattern, or whether 2011 was a blip.  (Especially since 2011's Grit candidate ran a much more active and media-ballyhooed "anti-Oda" campaign--for him to finish 3rd vs a skeleton NDP candidate must have startled everyone in his camp and beyond)

[lilTommy]

I posted that the NDP candidate from 11 still has an active Facebook page... but that could mean nothing, especially if somone wants to run and they push for a contested nomination. with the NDP where they are in the polls, i would expect a stronger candidate to step up (gah i hope).

Adma - great breakdown! looks like the NDP did best in the southern portion (newcastle, Bowmanville, along the 401, i think both towns are part of Clarington?)

I think its interesting, that even though the 90s are long ago, the same trends for battleground ridings are there for the NDP. Scarborough and eastern GTA where you see these ridings have gone to the gov't not all at once, but usually in the end they will with a few exceptions. Someone mentioned immigrant and white-cdn born middle-working class will trend towards the best able to win... and the one that isn't tarnished so (as the liberals are now). Many of these areas the NDP didn't invest the time and got a huge bump in 11... now if the investments made in ground work/candidates i think that can help... but three more years of the tories in this state which looks to be a gradual slow decline could help.

On the Ford NDs... its odd, but i think a lot of that was some pendulum swing after two terms of David Miller... i liked the guy but he was getting trashed in the media to some degree and Ford for all his proven failings as mayor was a good councillor.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ford was good representing his constituents, but was/is terrible representing Toronto. Anyways...

Using Adma's data here are the numbers for the four municipalities.
I'm assuming Adma didn't include advance polls, so I added those in as well.

Uxbridge:
Cons 5699 (56.1)
Lib 2213 (21.8)
NDP 1451 (14.3)
Grn 719 (7.1)
Oth 76 (0.7)

Scugog:
Cons 6051 (56.2)
Lib 2071 (19.2)
NDP 1885 (17.5)
Grn 665 (6.2)
Oth 90 (0.8)

(The NDP had more E-Day votes, but the Liberals finished 2nd due to advance polls)

Clarington
Cons 19628 (53.6)
NDP 8857 (24.2)
Lib 5922 (16.2)
Grn 1713 (4.7)
Oth 471 (1.3)

[Hatman 🍁]

2nd place map:

[RogueBeaver]

Toews might get his judgeship, but given what happened with Cabinet I'll believe that when I see it.

[lilTommy]

2nd place map:

Nice Map!... you could pretty easily just split that with a knife along the Uxbridge/Scugog border... Scugog being that mixed area where the liberals 2nd place lead bleeds into the NDP 2nd place lead.
Looks like neither the Lib or NDP will take this one lightly... where Calgary Centre might be a given and not sure how many resources will be put into it... but by-elections are different animals aint they.

I hear this is not the first time Toews has been offered a Judgeship... scary thought

[Hatman 🍁]

If you take out Uxbridge, you get a better sized riding, so that's what might happen to this district after redistribution (plus perhaps a name change to Clarington-Scugog)

[lilTommy]

... is that a proposal i hear?

I agree too, just depends on how many ridings York/Durham are due and how they get cut up... but Uxebridge seems much more "York" then "Durham" politically and maybe even demographically

[Hatman 🍁]

Sure, it's a proposal. But, just for one riding

[lilTommy]

Sure, it's a proposal. But, just for one riding

... tease

[Hatman 🍁]

Actually, while that makes for a good riding size, it might not happen like that, because:

Pickering--Uxbridge works
Ajax on its own works;
But what to do about Whitby--Oshawa? A little too small for 3 ridings. You can throw in Scugog if you want, but that brakes up Durham (the riding).

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's another tease.

Windsor becomes 2 ridings
then Essex (or Essex West) is created combining LaSalle, Tecumseh, Amherstburg, Essex and Kingsville.

[adma]

Nice Map!... you could pretty easily just split that with a knife along the Uxbridge/Scugog border

Or more properly, along the old Ontario/Durham County border (which'd divide Scugog in half).

As far as redistribution goes, I could just as well see Scugog/Uxbridge combined with Brock/Georgina/E Gwillimbury/Whitchurch-Stouffville, or some such combo, i.e. totally divorced from PickAjWhitOshClar...

[lilTommy]

A little off tangent, back to by-election talk, Etobicoke Centre is really heatin up with the Supreme court hearing the arguments today.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/canadas-voting-system-at-the-heart-of-etobicoke-elections-case/article4401938/

[adma]

Re Durham: doing more litmus whittling-down, the following polls went more than 30% NDP: 84 (N  side Hwy 2 as it enters Clarington: ergo, practically Oshawa overspill); 90 (mid-north Courtice); 95 (straddling Hwy 2 thru much of Courtice; lotsa townhousey stuff); 101 (84's opposite gatepost-into-Clarington); 107 (mid-south Courtice); 113 (Regional Road 22's gateway from Oshawa); 114 (E edge of Courtice sprawl straddling Hwy 2); 116-2 (gateway into Bowmanville via Hwy 2; plus some new subdivision) 128/128-1 (new/newish Bowmanville SW subdivision); 130/136/137/138 (60s/70sish SW BV subdivision; I think Reform once did well here, may be wrong); 139/140/140-1/141-1 (far-NE BV new/recent subdivision); 146 (slightly further south version of the aforementioned; next to an ex-POW camp, believe it or not); 150 (NE of downtown BV; includes a "Trudeau Drive", believe it or not); 153/155/156/159/160 (straddling Hwy 2 through the bulk of BV's downtown core; then S on Liberty St; much traditional NDP turf, including postwar CMHC housing); 179 (mid-subdivision SW of Newcastle's core); 183/184/186 (the entire urban-suburban NE of Newcastle); 500 (senior's poll won by the NDP; the only non-Tory poll in the seat)

[Hatman 🍁]

Interestingly, the Liberals won some polls in Durham in the provincial election

The Liberals won 3 polls in Newcastle, 2 in Pt Perry, 3 in Uxbridge, 1 in Bowmanville and 4 in Courtice (plus one tie)

[CalgaryManifesto]

Have you done any work on Durham Earl? If there aren't any maps up yet, I can take a run at it this weekend.