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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2012  (Read 32357 times)
Hatman
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« Reply #325 on: July 08, 2012, 04:11:36 pm »
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No, I was there when Ford was elected, I don't think it was so much of a gay issue than it was just the fact that outer-Toronto was trending conservative at the time - just like, in 2011, quite a few ridings in Etobicoke, North York, and Scarborough went Conservative.

Well, if one were to paint all Toryism with a common brush.  Look, if Dubyah-keister-kissing is all you can point to as evidence of O'Brien being "worse" than Ford (or maybe more properly, the double-headed monster that is Rob + Doug Ford), you haven't comprehended the fullness of Ford-style ineptitude.  (Indeed, that's been the problem with a lot of Ford's critics over time: that they've offered overly softball generic right-of-centre evil/buffoonery/thuggery comparisons--O'Brien, Mel Lastman, Dubyah, Boris Johnson, Mike Harris, etc...)

Note to Adma: Holmes and I are different people. (I have a light green avatar now Smiley ) But, there was more than just Dubya kiester kissing, there were huge gaffes as well. And of course the whole scandal that made him temporarily vacate the office to stand trial. AFAIK Ford hasn't had that happen yet.
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« Reply #326 on: July 08, 2012, 09:09:22 pm »
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Sorry to disrupt the municipal politics talk (Tongue), but back OT Erin O'Toole will be launching his Durham bid tomorrow per Bourque.

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« Reply #327 on: July 08, 2012, 10:02:19 pm »
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Sorry to disrupt the municipal politics talk (Tongue), but back OT Erin O'Toole will be launching his Durham bid tomorrow per Bourque.



Bourque is a political blogger or analyst? I suppose you aren't talking about Geranium the First?
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« Reply #328 on: July 08, 2012, 10:03:50 pm »
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Sorry to disrupt the municipal politics talk (Tongue), but back OT Erin O'Toole will be launching his Durham bid tomorrow per Bourque.



Bourque is a political blogger or analyst? I suppose you aren't talking about Geranium the First?

Pierre Bourque. This guy. I'd also use Kinsella but he isn't saying anything about this by-election.


http://bourque.com/
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Hatman
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« Reply #329 on: July 08, 2012, 10:09:32 pm »
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You could have easily segwayed from municipal politics to Bourque, as I believe he is a former city councillor here.
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« Reply #330 on: July 08, 2012, 10:13:41 pm »
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Which Pierre Bourque? That Pierre Bourque (in Ottawa? Toronto?), or the former mayor of Montreal also named Pierre Bourque (1993-2001), nicknamed Geramium the First, as said in a previous post?
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« Reply #331 on: July 08, 2012, 10:24:08 pm »
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The guy Hatman's talking about. Have you guys decided to rerun your 2011 candidate or not?
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Hatman
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« Reply #332 on: July 08, 2012, 10:47:03 pm »
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The guy Hatman's talking about. Have you guys decided to rerun your 2011 candidate or not?

Uuuhh, kinda early dontchya think? By-election wont be until the Fall.
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« Reply #333 on: July 08, 2012, 11:14:44 pm »
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The guy Hatman's talking about. Have you guys decided to rerun your 2011 candidate or not?

Uuuhh, kinda early dontchya think? By-election wont be until the Fall.

So?
In perfect conditions, the ground campaign should be ready to run the day after the writs are launched, no?
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« Reply #334 on: July 09, 2012, 07:01:51 am »
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I thought I read somewhere that she's running again--then again, there seem to be indications that the Liberal candidate may be running again, either.

In any case, this byelection may well be a litmus on whether Ontario's ConLib seats gone ConNDP are set to continue that pattern, or whether 2011 was a blip.  (Especially since 2011's Grit candidate ran a much more active and media-ballyhooed "anti-Oda" campaign--for him to finish 3rd vs a skeleton NDP candidate must have startled everyone in his camp and beyond)
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« Reply #335 on: July 09, 2012, 07:52:33 am »
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I posted that the NDP candidate from 11 still has an active Facebook page... but that could mean nothing, especially if somone wants to run and they push for a contested nomination. with the NDP where they are in the polls, i would expect a stronger candidate to step up (gah i hope).

Adma - great breakdown! looks like the NDP did best in the southern portion (newcastle, Bowmanville, along the 401, i think both towns are part of Clarington?)

I think its interesting, that even though the 90s are long ago, the same trends for battleground ridings are there for the NDP. Scarborough and eastern GTA where you see these ridings have gone to the gov't not all at once, but usually in the end they will with a few exceptions. Someone mentioned immigrant and white-cdn born middle-working class will trend towards the best able to win... and the one that isn't tarnished so (as the liberals are now). Many of these areas the NDP didn't invest the time and got a huge bump in 11... now if the investments made in ground work/candidates i think that can help... but three more years of the tories in this state which looks to be a gradual slow decline could help.

On the Ford NDs... its odd, but i think a lot of that was some pendulum swing after two terms of David Miller... i liked the guy but he was getting trashed in the media to some degree and Ford for all his proven failings as mayor was a good councillor.
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Hatman
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« Reply #336 on: July 09, 2012, 08:57:41 am »
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Ford was good representing his constituents, but was/is terrible representing Toronto. Anyways...

Using Adma's data here are the numbers for the four municipalities.
I'm assuming Adma didn't include advance polls, so I added those in as well.

Uxbridge:
Cons 5699 (56.1)
Lib 2213 (21.8)
NDP 1451 (14.3)
Grn 719 (7.1)
Oth 76 (0.7)

Scugog:
Cons 6051 (56.2)
Lib 2071 (19.2)
NDP 1885 (17.5)
Grn 665 (6.2)
Oth 90 (0.8)

(The NDP had more E-Day votes, but the Liberals finished 2nd due to advance polls)

Clarington
Cons 19628 (53.6)
NDP 8857 (24.2)
Lib 5922 (16.2)
Grn 1713 (4.7)
Oth 471 (1.3)
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Hatman
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« Reply #337 on: July 09, 2012, 12:51:20 pm »
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2nd place map:
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« Reply #338 on: July 09, 2012, 01:19:19 pm »
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Toews might get his judgeship, but given what happened with Cabinet I'll believe that when I see it.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #339 on: July 09, 2012, 01:34:49 pm »
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2nd place map:

Nice Map!... you could pretty easily just split that with a knife along the Uxbridge/Scugog border... Scugog being that mixed area where the liberals 2nd place lead bleeds into the NDP 2nd place lead.
Looks like neither the Lib or NDP will take this one lightly... where Calgary Centre might be a given and not sure how many resources will be put into it... but by-elections are different animals aint they.

I hear this is not the first time Toews has been offered a Judgeship... scary thought
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Hatman
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« Reply #340 on: July 09, 2012, 01:36:49 pm »
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If you take out Uxbridge, you get a better sized riding, so that's what might happen to this district after redistribution (plus perhaps a name change to Clarington-Scugog)
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lilTommy
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« Reply #341 on: July 09, 2012, 02:20:16 pm »
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... is that a proposal i hear? Tongue

I agree too, just depends on how many ridings York/Durham are due and how they get cut up... but Uxebridge seems much more "York" then "Durham" politically and maybe even demographically
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Hatman
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« Reply #342 on: July 09, 2012, 02:22:38 pm »
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Sure, it's a proposal. But, just for one riding Wink
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lilTommy
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« Reply #343 on: July 09, 2012, 02:28:50 pm »
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Sure, it's a proposal. But, just for one riding Wink
... tease Tongue
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Hatman
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« Reply #344 on: July 09, 2012, 02:42:55 pm »
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Actually, while that makes for a good riding size, it might not happen like that, because:

Pickering--Uxbridge works
Ajax on its own works;
But what to do about Whitby--Oshawa? A little too small for 3 ridings. You can throw in Scugog if you want, but that brakes up Durham (the riding).
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Hatman
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« Reply #345 on: July 09, 2012, 02:48:22 pm »
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Here's another tease.

Windsor becomes 2 ridings
then Essex (or Essex West) is created combining LaSalle, Tecumseh, Amherstburg, Essex and Kingsville.
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« Reply #346 on: July 09, 2012, 08:12:48 pm »
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Nice Map!... you could pretty easily just split that with a knife along the Uxbridge/Scugog border

Or more properly, along the old Ontario/Durham County border (which'd divide Scugog in half).

As far as redistribution goes, I could just as well see Scugog/Uxbridge combined with Brock/Georgina/E Gwillimbury/Whitchurch-Stouffville, or some such combo, i.e. totally divorced from PickAjWhitOshClar...
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lilTommy
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« Reply #347 on: July 10, 2012, 08:43:18 am »
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A little off tangent, back to by-election talk, Etobicoke Centre is really heatin up with the Supreme court hearing the arguments today.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/canadas-voting-system-at-the-heart-of-etobicoke-elections-case/article4401938/
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« Reply #348 on: July 10, 2012, 10:46:22 pm »
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Re Durham: doing more litmus whittling-down, the following polls went more than 30% NDP: 84 (N  side Hwy 2 as it enters Clarington: ergo, practically Oshawa overspill); 90 (mid-north Courtice); 95 (straddling Hwy 2 thru much of Courtice; lotsa townhousey stuff); 101 (84's opposite gatepost-into-Clarington); 107 (mid-south Courtice); 113 (Regional Road 22's gateway from Oshawa); 114 (E edge of Courtice sprawl straddling Hwy 2); 116-2 (gateway into Bowmanville via Hwy 2; plus some new subdivision) 128/128-1 (new/newish Bowmanville SW subdivision); 130/136/137/138 (60s/70sish SW BV subdivision; I think Reform once did well here, may be wrong); 139/140/140-1/141-1 (far-NE BV new/recent subdivision); 146 (slightly further south version of the aforementioned; next to an ex-POW camp, believe it or not); 150 (NE of downtown BV; includes a "Trudeau Drive", believe it or not); 153/155/156/159/160 (straddling Hwy 2 through the bulk of BV's downtown core; then S on Liberty St; much traditional NDP turf, including postwar CMHC housing); 179 (mid-subdivision SW of Newcastle's core); 183/184/186 (the entire urban-suburban NE of Newcastle); 500 (senior's poll won by the NDP; the only non-Tory poll in the seat)
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Hatman
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« Reply #349 on: July 10, 2012, 10:54:48 pm »
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Interestingly, the Liberals won some polls in Durham in the provincial election

The Liberals won 3 polls in Newcastle, 2 in Pt Perry, 3 in Uxbridge, 1 in Bowmanville and 4 in Courtice (plus one tie)
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