Canadian by-elections, 2012

[Senator MaxQue]

Hey 11% is nothing to shy at, doesn't mean your in contention though ... and trust me, my first election working for the NDP we were excited to break 2000 votes!

12 years ago in Quebec, 1% for NDP in Quebec was great.

[lilTommy]

For Kitchener-Waterloo the Liberals have gone with Eric Davis, the candidate back in the last prov. election. So the NDP now carry the heavy-weight candidate card, will it make the difference?
 
http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1019163/eric-davis-wins-liberal-nomination-in-kitchener-waterloo

[The Head Beagle]

the NDP now carry the heavy-weight candidate card, will it make the difference?

The chair of the local school board is not a particularly noteworthy candidate. This person doesn't even have a wikipedia page about her.

[Hashemite]

the NDP now carry the heavy-weight candidate card, will it make the difference?

The chair of the local school board is not a particularly noteworthy candidate. This person doesn't even have a wikipedia page about her.

Don't destroy their fantasies.

[Holmes]

Is that the new standard for determining good candidates? A wikipedia entry? Golly gee.

[Senator MaxQue]

the NDP now carry the heavy-weight candidate card, will it make the difference?

The chair of the local school board is not a particularly noteworthy candidate. This person doesn't even have a wikipedia page about her.

While I agree with the 1st sentence, I can't agree with the second. Most mayors of cities under 100,000 inhabitants don't have articles, but they are clearly star candidates in their riding.

[The Head Beagle]

I don't deny she's a good candidate, in the sense that anyone who's been seriously involved in local administration and community work is a good candidate. But in this sense a lawyer who's on various charity boards and who came within 7% of winning last time for the Liberals is also a good candidate. All three candidates strike me as reasonably good candidates in this sense, but not the sort of "star" candidate that ordinary voters actually have a personal opinion of.

Fair point about the mayors on wikipedia, though, Max.

[adma]

I don't deny she's a good candidate, in the sense that anyone who's been seriously involved in local administration and community work is a good candidate. But in this sense a lawyer who's on various charity boards and who came within 7% of winning last time for the Liberals is also a good candidate. All three candidates strike me as reasonably good candidates in this sense, but not the sort of "star" candidate that ordinary voters actually have a personal opinion of.

Fair point about the mayors on wikipedia, though, Max.

Though I'd argue that had Fife been the ONDP candidate in 2011 and the K-W left-of-centre picture not been so skewed artificially Liberalward by the federal Telegdi circumstance, she might even have nipped Rogers for second place or at least come a much closer 3rd.

And never mind star candidates; we're also talking about leadership "that ordinary voters actually have a personal opinion of"--and generally speaking, such "personal opinion" has been much more favourable to Horwath than to Hudak or McGuinty.

Thus while the crude notional odds don't favour the NDP in K-W, the Fife + Horwath + byelection juggernaut suggests that such existing notional-odds logic ought to be tossed out the window...

[adma]

*But*, as proof that patterns die hard, I'm hearing of a Forum poll for K-W that shows the Liberals and PCs tied at 36%, and the NDP at 20%.  (If someone can post a link, please do so.)

[DL]

Now forum is hinting in tweets that their latest poll has the Tories leading in Waterloo and the NDP eating into Liberal support....no details yet

[Holmes]

Great! I can just hear it now, vote Liberal strategically, they're the only ones who can stop the Tories.

[DL]

In this case the "strategic voting" argument is the opposite, the PCs would make the srtgument that people thinking of voting NDP should vote PC make sure McGuinty doesn't regain his majority - in which case all the NDP's clout would be lost.

[lilTommy]

I don't think we will ever really get away from this old Strategic voting line... just a new take, Vote PC to take away a Liberal Majority. My gut is that in more urban centres it harder to find a NDP -to-PC voter, where as you can see this more in some rural areas (i'm thinking mostly Northern Ontario).

Its going to be a battle between for "do you want a majority or keep this minority? if no, it becomes whos the best opposition to the OLP?"

Ya if anyone can find that poll, eek

And by "star-candidate" to me that generally seems to be anyone who hold an elected office/has held an elected office... whether they did a good job or not (obviously that plays). But having a candidated who a)can win elections; b)has experience running in them is nothing but an asset. Her candidacy is also important in that shes a SCHOOL BOARD trustee and president... fighting the so-called "Education Premier"
Also, we don't really need another Lawyer at QP now do we?

[lilTommy]

Just saw this..
http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/article/1241130--steven-del-duca-nominated-for-liberals-in-sept-6-vaughan-byelection

Steven Del Duca is the Liberal candidate (seeing how quick they were on the mark here, i think this is their priority target) .. former executive assistant to Greg Sorbara and current director of public affairs for the Carpenters District Council of Ontario

[adma]

A bit of an aside here: has anyone done (or is in the process of doing) polling maps for the 2011 Ontario election? (Esp. ones where we can figure which polls are which)

[Hatman]

A bit of an aside here: has anyone done (or is in the process of doing) polling maps for the 2011 Ontario election? (Esp. ones where we can figure which polls are which)

Geez, there's a link on my blog, but: http://www.globalnews.ca/pages/topicNew.aspx?id=6442556629

[DL]

Forum has just released a poll in Kitchener Waterloo and its a shocker: PC 34%, NDP 30%, Liberals 30%. If we comp-are these numbers to the October election the NDP is up 13 points, the PCs are down 9 points and the Liberals are down 6 points. If the NDP can win a riding like Waterloo - what's to stop them from winning all of Ontario?

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1241559--ontario-liberals-supported-in-vaughan-but-lose-ground-in-kitchener-waterloo-new-polls-show

[Hatman]

oooh. Good news.

[Holmes]

But she doesn't have a wiki page.

[adma]

Definite proof that "candidacy matters", as well as of my "Telegdi skewed the picture" argument--though it's oddly telling how the media's downplaying the NDP element on behalf of "Liberals no longer in the lead", etc...

[lilTommy]

Definite proof that "candidacy matters", as well as of my "Telegdi skewed the picture" argument--though it's oddly telling how the media's downplaying the NDP element on behalf of "Liberals no longer in the lead", etc...

Also, the influence Andrea has/will have... if you look at the leaders numbers; she is far ahead of Hudak and Dalton "Tim Hudak is stuck at 25 per cent approval, compared with 49 per cent for NDP Leader Andrea Horwath and 33 per cent for McGuinty"

... but the Liberal have a healthy lead in Vaughan, actually saw an increase. Its interesting to see this huge difference between these two ridings.

[lilTommy]

OH... and Happy Birthday Hatman

[Hatman]

OH... and Happy Birthday Hatman

Yes, this poll is a wonderful birthday present...lol

[The Head Beagle]

But she doesn't have a wiki page.

Definite proof that "candidacy matters"

I'm still not really convinced the individual candidates are affecting things that much - the NDP is actually doing very well in province-wide polls, in some cases better than the Liberals, and as you say adma, one might expect a larger swing here since there were strategic considerations in the general election that don't apply now. But whatever - I could also just be wrong about this case.

[DL]

I'm still not really convinced the individual candidates are affecting things that much - the NDP is actually doing very well in province-wide polls, in some cases better than the Liberals

I'm not sure what more evidence you need. The NDP was polling just as well province-wide at the end of April when Forum polled K-W and asked people how they would vote giving just party names and no local candidate names. Back then the NDP polled 20%, now a couple of months later, nothing has changed province-wide - yet just by adding the candidates' names the NDP surges from 20% to 30% thanks to Catherine Fife...in Vaughan where the NDP will likely run a no-name candidate - there is no NDP "bounce at all". In  byelections in particular - local candidates matter a lot.