Canadian by-elections, 2012

[Smid]

I am completely unsurprised that your post providing demographic maps and an explanation thereof is at your usual high standard. Excellent work!

[Smid]

Earl, I love your work. Those poll-by-poll maps are fantastic!

[Smid]

First poll's in:

NDP 49
Lib 26
Con 2
Grn 2

Total 79

[Smid]

Trying to work out if Tory voters stayed home or strategically voted Liberal... How does turnout/vote totals compare to the General? Will be very interesting to see the poll maps.

[Smid]

Perhaps the NDP could propose a coalition again, and say that they won't contest Etobicoke Centre if the Libs agree and also agree to no three-cornered contests in seats held by the other party. It would probably cause division in the Liberal ranks, and if the Libs disagree, the NDP could use it as a "we tried to present a united front against the government, but the Liberals weren't interested" and if the Grits agree, the NDP then has an agreement that they won't be challenged by the Liberals in their seats, including their newly-won seats like York SW, and they would have a valid excuse to not contest Etobicoke Centre, and not have to worry about a third place finish there denting their momentum. I think the Liberals would be foolish to accept the deal, but I think the NDP could get mileage out of a rejection.

[Smid]

Well, that's the same reason I didn't make plans to meet you when you came down for the convention in March, although in my defense I did have plans for that day that didn't fall through. But uh if you're ever in the GTA again please force me out of hiding. Also Teddy scares me a bit too, that might be another reason I haven't met him. Hope he doesn't read that in case we meet one day.

Last year, Hugh and I went for dinner/drinks fortnightly (on my pay day). Polnut joined us one time, too (he's normally in a different city). I've only caught up with Hugh the once since he got back from overseas, though - we went for coffee a couple of weeks ago.

[Smid]

And don't be too hard on school trustees, even if you can't name your own--very often, it *is* a launching pad to political power. 

They're probably also more familiar to the parents of children in the electorate, as opposed to people more our age.

[Smid]

(Also, introducing my new master key which I used on this map)

Me likey.

EDIT: Sorry to be looking a gift horse in the mouth, but any chance you might knock together some orange and green tones as well? Maybe a purple and a yellow, too?

[Smid]

(Also, introducing my new master key which I used on this map)

Me likey.

EDIT: Sorry to be looking a gift horse in the mouth, but any chance you might knock together some orange and green tones as well? Maybe a purple and a yellow, too?

No purple or yellow, sorry. Will have to wait for a municipal election for that. I know the mayor of Calgary used purple in his election.

You are brilliant! Thank you!

[Smid]

Great work! To which neighbourhoods do those areas of support correspond? I assume the areas of support are unsurprising, but is that an accurate assumption to make?

[Smid]

Haha. Well, the Liberals don't need the press or momentum (albeit, artificial) that comes from winning a by-election against the gouverning party. I respect this decision though. I think Elections Canada should be the final say in the matter, not our courts. We're not the United States, here.

Indeed, a by-election win by the Liberals would have the media asking questions of "has the orange crush receded under Mulcair?" and that sort of thing.

I'm fine with the Courts being able to overturn election results, where electoral law has been clearly broken, but I think the burden of proof must really lie with the party trying to have the results overturned, to prove that the electoral outcome was affected (not merely "could have been" affected).

[Smid]

A win there could shut the media up about this Trudeau suuuuuuuuurge! Actually, it wouldn't.

A swing away from the Liberals could potentially have the media talking about how "new Liberal leader Justin Trudeau has failed to stem the outgoing tide in his home province of Quebec..."

[Smid]

So... Greens voters in Calgary Centre...

37% aged 35-44 said they'd vote Green, compared to just 25% aged 18-24. Those aged 45-54 were also more likely to vote Green than the younger cohort (32%).

40% of those earning between $80k and $100k also said they'd vote Green.

NDP getting nailed - only 36% of those who voted NDP in the General Election said they would vote NDP in the by-election. Almost as many (34%) said they'd vote Green instead.

I don't think the poll is accurate, personally, but I could be wrong.

[Smid]

How long before results start trickling in?

[Smid]

As an aside, yes, things are different in the UK.

After the 2010 election, new signs have appeared at polling stations which say "Polls close at 10pm, always expect queues as you cannot vote afterwards" or somesuch. I think there's an amendment to the law going through the Commons, at the usual pace you'd expect.

Over here, at 6pm (when polls close), an Electoral Commission employee walks to the end of the line, and everyone in front of them can vote, and everyone who shows up after that is turned away. That said, the line by then is usually pretty short, so often it's just a case of going over and locking the doors (scrutineers must be in the room by then).

The lines are longest at lunch time, although there are other smaller peaks throughout the day. Since we have compulsory voting, turnout isn't much of an indicator, we use the "early morning rush" as our estimation of how eager people are to vote.

How long before results start trickling in?

Counting started in Calgary and Durham (10 minutes ago), but no results can be published before 20 minutes (when Victoria polls closes).

Cheers mate!

[Smid]

Interesting that the race widely publicised as being the closest has ended up likely having a lower turnout than Durham, where the result was never really in doubt.

The CC result is pretty close - second place is virtually mid-way between first and third, although I suspect the gap between second and third to widen as more polls report.

[Smid]

Who would have thought that of the three seats, Victoria would be shaping up to be the closest!?

[Smid]

I think, given the low turnout in CC, it may not so much be PCers voting Liberal because of Crockett, but possibly the Liberal vote remaining (with a slight lift, perhaps?) While anti-Crockett PCers just simply stayed home? If this is the case, even the best result for the Liberals is pretty shabby, and probably the fault of the anti-Alberta comments recently.

[Smid]

Can I just say that Krago is awesome, and that it's a great loss that he no longer posts here.

[Smid]

Poll by poll results of the Fall by-elections have been posted (a few days ago) on the Elections Canada site: http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rep/off/ovr_2012b&document=index&lang=e

Krago has sent me some maps, I will post them later.

Excellent! Really looking forward to seeing those, particularly the Calgary and Victoria ones.

[Smid]

Poll by poll results of the Fall by-elections have been posted (a few days ago) on the Elections Canada site: http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rep/off/ovr_2012b&document=index&lang=e

Krago has sent me some maps, I will post them later.

Excellent! Really looking forward to seeing those, particularly the Calgary and Victoria ones.

Victoria is quite.... bizarre. As to be expected in an NDP vs Green race, I guess.

Yeah, the relative closeness of those two is the reason I am interested in them. So no real discernable patterns in Victoria, just randomness?

[Smid]

Due to mass vote splitting, the NDP actually won some polls that they had lost last time, probably with a much lower share of the vote.

I assume due to vote splitting, I also see a poll won by the Tories, which they didn't win in 2011 (on the water, immediately West of the Parliament).

[Smid]

Good to see he's doing the right thing, even though it was a campaign volunteer, and not himself, who did the wrong thing.