Canadian by-elections, 2012

[RogueBeaver]

Here's the link. The only other by-election possibility right now (barring a death or resignation) is that Topp wins the NDP leadership and one of the Quebec frosh step down to make way for him.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/by-election-in-laytons-riding-scheduled-for-march-12/article2327105/

[RogueBeaver]

Liberal nomination meeting is tonight.

[RogueBeaver]

Why am I not surprised?

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2012/02/13/former-tordan-liberal-candidate-says-he-stepped-aside-for-no-show-star/

[RogueBeaver]

Media kept throwing Miller (a Dipper) and Kennedy around, dunno who else it might have been. Maybe one of Dad's crew?

[RogueBeaver]

The Liberals never had a chance of winning this riding, but are otherwise polling just fine in Ontario. Though I do wonder who their mystery candidate, if they actually exist, was.

[RogueBeaver]

The people mentioned were Miller (a Dipper last I checked) and Kennedy. Neither of whom are particularly inclined to kamikaze missions.

[RogueBeaver]

It used to be Rae's riding eons ago, so not totally off the wall. How popular is Rae in TO proper these days?

[RogueBeaver]

Apart from Danforth, the only other possibility barring death or resignation is if Topp somehow wins the leadership and a poteau resigns to make way.

[RogueBeaver]

Why our Grit friends kept talking up their chances is beyond me- first the star candidate rumour, then Rae's face being more prominent than the candidate's, finally a Trudeau visit on Gordon's behalf.

[RogueBeaver]

Hopefully not. There was an article earlier today that McGuinty might try this gambit in a couple of other seats.

http://www.therecord.com/news/canada/article/718609--liberals-courting-tory-and-ndp-mpps

[RogueBeaver]

Reopening a useless airport and infrastructure spending are right-wing ideas? Anyhoo this by-election looks like a Pelquiste wash.

[RogueBeaver]

We don't have any controversial riding names. If someone started using 20th-century political VIPs then maybe, but that hasn't happened yet. Sole exception is Con-derre's riding of Bourassa and even that isn't a BFD here.

[RogueBeaver]

Not federally- those are all provincial ridings (and none of those are controversial ATM), and I'm well aware about Aussie ridings.

Federally: I prefer our tradition to the Aussie one.

One thing's for sure: there won't be a federal by-election to open room for a new Liberal leader.

[RogueBeaver]

Speaking of Bourassa, there are still rumours swirling that Coderre will resign to run for mayor next year. Personally I'm doubtful because: a) the rules are written so that a non-established party with minimal financing will find it near-impossible to gain a foothold b) Tremblay has been fairly clear about his third-term intentions for a while. All that would do is split the federalist vote and elect Harel or the truther.

[RogueBeaver]

I'll take Tremblay. If Coderre does run then that seat falls. No Liberal seat in Quebec can be reasonably sure without the current incumbent, possibly excepting St. Leonard-St. Michel.

[RogueBeaver]

No idea. Anyhoo, I expect the PLQ to hold Whissell's seat.

[RogueBeaver]

Gouin is named after Lomer but personally I've always found Paul by far the more interesting figure.

[RogueBeaver]

What's with the tone? I make a typo once in a while but I'm also a lifelong Montrealer who's in tune with city politics. Coderre has no affiliations with UM and Tremblay's Liberal associations are with the PLQ in whose Cabinets he used to serve. He has connections to federal Tories as well- why do you think Dimitri Soudas got that patronage gig at the port after leaving the PMO?

That said, Tremblay doesn't have any successor on the horizon that I've heard of. It can't be an Anglophone and a fair few of his prominent senior people like Applebaum are Anglos. Denis Coderre as mayor of Montreal is quite frankly laughable. The man's a political thug whose "organizational skills" are nonexistent judging by the results he's gotten the PLC these past 2 elections.

[RogueBeaver]

Quebec hasn't changed that much since the late '70s on corruption issues but these days you have to at least try and keep things an open secret rather than completely public.

[RogueBeaver]

Charest has the same Catherine wheel effect on his senior ministers that late-term Thatcher did on hers. Bellemare, Couillard, Mulcair, MGT, Normandeau... now Beauchamp.

[RogueBeaver]

Interesting that Beauchamp and Coderre share the same territory.

[RogueBeaver]

Not happening. If Charest calls a fall election there won't be a by-election anyways.

[RogueBeaver]

Why would anyone want Coderre anyways?

On Bourassa-Sauve: Easy PLQ hold.

[RogueBeaver]

This would be a personal victory IMO. Another side effect would be BW using it as a platform to (in vain, obviously) challenge Rae for the leadership given that he's an oft-mentioned candidate.

[RogueBeaver]

The Grits would have lost OO even if they hadn't lost a single seat last year. They only get OO back if the BQ comes back and make major inroads in GTA + BC.