Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 01, 2014, 05:22:01 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Bacon King, Dallasfan65)
| | |-+  After Hope and Change...
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: After Hope and Change...  (Read 960 times)
NHI
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3451


P P P
View Profile
« on: February 06, 2012, 01:33:08 pm »
Ignore

With me being unable to find the right spin on my previous open ended timelines, I've decided to try my go at a fresh timeline, following the Election of 2008.


John McCain is elected President of the United States, after narrowly defeating Barack Obama in one of the closest election in American history.

Sen. John McCain/Sen. Joe Lieberman: 271 Electoral Votes 48.84% Popular Vote
Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 267 Electoral Votes 48.62%

With a narrow win the popular and electoral vote, Sen. John McCain became President-Elect, much to the dismay and disgruntlement of many in the American populace. President George Bush's approval rating hit an all time low of 29%, and the American economy was in shambles. Many political pundits were in shock November 5th, as going into November 4th Sen. Obama led John McCain in all polling and had a comfortable lead in some exit polls.

For whatever the reason McCain had pulled the greatest upset in modern political history and now was going into the Presidency with a crumbling economy, a weak approval rating and Democratic Majorities in both Houses of Congress.

In a speech following his election McCain vowed to compromise when need be and to work hand in hand with his Democratic friends in order to see American through the economic storm. This type of talk may have made McCain sound post-partisan, but it angered Conservatives who were not happy with McCain to begin, and now before even becoming President many declared he was already a failed President.

Rush Limbaugh balked on his radio show, "McCain minds well change his registration to D. He's already played into the Democrat's hand. By wimping out like that and all but saying whatever piece of legislation comes across my desk I'll sign it is troubling. We're in serious trouble and we have as our President someone who is far from a conservative, far from a moderate Republican."

Pres. Elect McCain announcing his cabinet.

"I wish he'd gone with at least Romney as his VP, instead of this boon." -- Mike Church, The Mike Church Show.

"We'll just cross our fingers and pray." -- Laura Ingram, The Laura Ingram Show

McCain was sworn in amid grave uncertainty in the country and only with an approval rating of 51% McCain tried to step aside the politics of the past and focus on turning around the American economy. On his third day in Office McCain signed into law a $787 billion Stimulus Package, aimed at "Rebuilding America's economy, from the shockwave she has recently taken."


The protest movement known as "The Tea Party" begins to emerge.

In the wave of the Stimulus Package, high unemployment and distrust of government a small faction began to grow across the land, all chanting the same message: "We want our country back" Conservatives angry at McCain for his compromise and liberal-lite policies took to the movement saw it as a way back to power.


"McCain won't be a candidate for reelection in '12, Lieberman sure as hell ain't gonna run for the nomination. This movement is our wave back to real, American conservatism."-- Rush Limbaugh

McCain Approval Rating: May 2009
Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 51%


More to come...

Logged

‎"Our president thinks this country's in decline. It is if he's president. It's not if I'm president." -- Mitt Romney

GM SirNick
sirnick
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4973
United States


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2012, 07:50:26 pm »
Ignore

More!
Logged
Is Totally Not Feeblepizza.
Crackers
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 290
United States


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: February 06, 2012, 08:30:45 pm »
Ignore

Very interesting...continue.
Logged

lawlz
#Ready4Nixon
Cathcon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15179
United States


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: February 06, 2012, 10:13:08 pm »
Ignore

More!
Logged

morgieb
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5297
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: February 06, 2012, 11:32:09 pm »
Ignore

This looks good. Continue.
Logged
NHI
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3451


P P P
View Profile
« Reply #5 on: February 07, 2012, 07:15:51 am »
Ignore

By October 2009 the unemployment rate had shot up to 10.2% and showed no sign of climbing down. At this point what little benefit of the doubt some Conservatives had given McCain was finished. With Democratic Majorities in both Houses, McCain found himself pressed against the wall as 2010 began. He wanted to push for an extension of the Bush Tax Cuts and in his State of the Union McCain called on Congress to act in unison towards helping relieve the pain of the unemployed.

Though his call seem to fall on deaf ears. By mid 2010 McCain's approval rating fell to an all time low of 39%, and McCain continued to see the unemployment rate hit a record high of 10.8%. With numbers like these McCain prepared himself for a bruising defeat in the midterm elections, where the Democrats were expected to triple their majorities.

President McCain greets Sen. Obama at the Address.

With all the excitement going on in Washington the small band of conservatives and some disaffected liberals began coalescing together to form what would eventually be the Tea Party. The platform was simple, limited government, less spending, lower taxes and return to Constitutional based Principles. With much of the anger being directed at President McCain, many in the media speculated if this was the start of a third party.

However, early Tea Party supporter Governor Sarah Palin proclaimed as she announced her primary challenge against Sen. Lisa Murkowski, "This is not about forming a third party, but instead sending a message to Washington that we're sick and tired of the spending, and a reformation of the Republican Party which has drifted away from it's principles these last ten years. In short we're here and we're not going away, because this country we love is in trouble and it's up to us and millions of Americans across this country to fix it!"

Palin, the first Tea Party backed candidate to challenge an incumbent.

Palin's was not the first, nor the last candidate to announce. Following her came the bids for The Senate in Kentucky by Rand Paul, son of Ron Paul, in Florida by Marco Rubio, Ovide Lamontagne in New Hampshire and many, many more.

As the movement continued to grow and grow McCain lost what little control he had left over the Republican Party. The GOP was embracing the Tea Party and McCain seemed destined for failure. Though he had citied he would only serve a single term, all pundits declared that McCain would lose in a landslide come 2012.

McCain Approval Rating:
Approve: 36%
Disapprove: 59%


"The Tea Party is what America's needs. This is the type of movement that shakes up the establishment and in our case brings the Republican Party back to where it began. Now it we're not heard from I believe a third party is necessary, because who are we going to nominate in 2012 to replace McCain, Giuliani? Romney? Conservatives are better to embrace this movement or suffer at their own peril." -- Rush Limbaugh

Prospective Republican Candidates:
Mitt Romney
Mike Huckabee
Rick Perry
Jim DeMint
Tim Pawlenty
John Thune
Michelle Bachmann
Ron Paul

Prospective Democrat Candidates:
Hillary Clinton
Barack Obama
Brian Schweitzer
Tim Kaine
Mark Warner
John Lynch
Joe Biden
Bill Richardson


What if Scenario:
Democrat: 53%
Republican: 30%
Tea Party: 15%

Matchup: Clinton vs. GOP
Clinton: 52%
GOP: 37%


Polling: Palin vs. Murkowski: AK
Palin: 51%
Murkowski: 45%

Polling: Rubio vs. Crist: FL
Rubio: 56%
Crist: 39%

Lamontagne vs. Ayotte: NH
Lamontagne: 48%
Ayotte: 46%
Logged

‎"Our president thinks this country's in decline. It is if he's president. It's not if I'm president." -- Mitt Romney

Is Totally Not Feeblepizza.
Crackers
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 290
United States


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: February 07, 2012, 07:37:52 am »
Ignore

Sensing Romney hackery...
Logged

lawlz
NHI
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3451


P P P
View Profile
« Reply #7 on: February 07, 2012, 08:15:02 am »
Ignore

Sensing Romney hackery...

I think not...more to come. Wink
Logged

‎"Our president thinks this country's in decline. It is if he's president. It's not if I'm president." -- Mitt Romney

NHI
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3451


P P P
View Profile
« Reply #8 on: February 07, 2012, 08:55:45 am »
Ignore

Headlines:

The GOP fights Back -- Politico

"We're the True Conservatives" -- New York Times

The Tea Party backed candidates rode in on waves of voter anger and frustration at Washington and the current state of affairs. As Marco Rubio declared upon his victory over Charlie Crist, "We're the True Conservatives and we're here to take this country back."

In light of the events, surrounding the Tea Party's rise many prominent Republicans across the country who bowed their heads and did not utter a peep in the wake of President McCain found themselves embracing the Tea Party head on.

Minority Leader John Boehner called the movement, "Positive, and what the Republican Party needs. A kick in the pants to get our stuff in line."

However some Republicans in high offices did not have to embrace the movement as they already identified themselves as members of that movement. Just two of the people being, Bobby Jindal and Mike Pence.

"I'm so glad that the Republican party has found it's way back to the principles espoused by Reagan and Goldwater. If we are able to win in November we will undoubtedly take this country in a better direction. For the Democrats have had power since 2006 and we see what that's done, and we have had a moderate Republican, posing as a Conservative." --  Rep. Mike Pence

Gov. Jindal prompted speculation about a 2012 run.

"I respect President John McCain. He's an honorable man and has given so much for this country, but Conservative he is not. He represents the old Republican Party, this new breed of Conservatism is what our party was built on and we've strayed from that over the last ten years, but we're coming back in force." -- Gov. Bobby Jindal

In a typical year the incumbent party would lose some seats in Congress, but 2010 was anything but normal. The Democrats were expected at first to make even larger gains in the Senate and House, all but pushing the Republicans to a marginal existence, but with the rise of the Tea Party uncertainty hung around Washington like a black cloud. The Tea Party was changing the Republican Party and thought unlikely, the possibility of a third party could still emerge.

Does America need a Third Party?
Yes 58%
No: 35%

Gov. Palin beat Murkowski 56% - 43% in the Alaska primary.

In an interview Gov. Sarah Palin was asked about the prospects of the Tea Party becoming a third party and she responded by saying, "The goal is not to create a third party, the goal is to bring the Republican Party in power around to our way of thinking. Instead of running against them, embracing the movement and principles. The fact is though either the Republican Party is with us or they're no different than the Democrats. I think however, as you can see the response we've been getting across the country that this is the new face of the Republican Party and that in 2012 we'll actually have a true conservative candidate on the ticket who will win overwhelming."

Pres. McCain's interview on NBC.

In an interview over the summer McCain sat down with Brian Williams to discuss the economy, the state of world affairs and the Tea Party.

Q: When can Americans start expecting results?

A: Unemployment will eventually go down, we just need to get a hold of the spending and size of government.

Q: How do you respond to charges that you've lost control of the Republican Party, that the Tea Party movement says more about you then the Democrats?

A: The Tea Party is made up of Americans who are frustrated at how Washington works and I understand that and am hoping in November we can loosen the Democratic grip on Congress and we can actually get things done.

Q: You stated in 2008 that you would not run for reelection is that still the plan?

A: Yes. My pledge was for one term and that is what I'll serve.

McCain Approval Rating:
Approval: 34%
Disapprove: 61%

Unemployment Rate:
10.9%

Key Senate Races: Polling

FL:
Rubio: 52%
Meek: 45%

NH:
Mahoney: 48%
Hoades: 47%

AK:
Boozman: 49%
Lincoln: 48%

AZ:
Quayle: 50%
Napolitano: 47%

CO:
Bennett: 48%
Buck: 47%

WI:
Feingold: 48%
Ryan: 48%

KY:
Paul: 51%
Conway: 44%

IL:
Obama: 50%
KirK: 46%

As 2011 neared the prospects of the 2012 race drew closer and closer. With an open primary for both sides speculation began in earnest as to who would seek the office. Sen. Clinton repeatedly brushed aside the idea of running for President again, while Sen. Obama remained opened to the idea, and said, "After my reelection I'll make a decision."

Polling: Democratic Nomination
Clinton: 47%
Obama: 29%
Other: 15%
Warner: 9%

Polling: Republican Nomination
Other: 30%
Romney: 19%
Huckabee: 18%
Daniels: 15%
Bush: 11%
Perry: 7%


Clinton again refusing to say yes or no on running for President again.

Clinton vs. GOP: Matchup
Clinton: 52%
GOP: 40%

Obama vs. GOP: Matchup
Obama: 50%
GOP: 39%

What if Scenario: I
Clinton: 52%
Romney: 28%
Tea Party: 18%

What if Scenario: II
Obama: 51%
Tea Party backed Republican: 42%

What if Scenario: III
Clinton: 46%
Republican: 45%
Lieberman (I): 5%



« Last Edit: February 07, 2012, 07:38:24 pm by NHI »Logged

‎"Our president thinks this country's in decline. It is if he's president. It's not if I'm president." -- Mitt Romney

GM SirNick
sirnick
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4973
United States


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: February 07, 2012, 05:10:18 pm »
Ignore

I probably missed it, but how many seats did the GOP lose in 2010?
Logged
morgieb
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5297
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: February 07, 2012, 05:17:10 pm »
Ignore

Biden isn't up until 2014.

Also, wouldn't the Republicans do worse in 2010 rather than better?
Logged
Gass3268
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4337
United States


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: February 07, 2012, 05:30:11 pm »
Ignore

Also, wouldn't the Republicans do worse in 2010 rather than better?

Exactly! If anything you'd see the rise of a left-wing equivalent to the Tea Party, something maybe like Occupy Wall Street. The Tea Party still probably comes about, but it probably wouldn't come about until later.
Logged
NHI
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3451


P P P
View Profile
« Reply #12 on: February 07, 2012, 07:40:10 pm »
Ignore

Clarifications coming soon: 2010 Results
Logged

‎"Our president thinks this country's in decline. It is if he's president. It's not if I'm president." -- Mitt Romney

Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines