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Author Topic: Predict the remaining Feburary races  (Read 1736 times)
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jfern
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« on: February 08, 2012, 04:40:35 am »
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Maine: Romney
Guam: Romney
Michigan: Romney
Arizona: Santorum

3 wins for Romney wouldn't be as good for him as it sounds though. Maine has byzantine rules and some of the voting already happened. No one cares about Guam. And Michigan is where he grew up and his father was elected governor.
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redcommander
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« Reply #1 on: February 08, 2012, 05:42:22 am »
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Doesn't Romney have McCain and Brewer's support? It would be quite hard for him to lose the state with those two endorsing him.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #2 on: February 08, 2012, 05:46:09 am »
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Doesn't Romney have McCain and Brewer's support? It would be quite hard for him to lose the state with those two endorsing him.

Yeah, just like Nikki Haley and Tim Pawlenty delivered South Carolina and Minnesota.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #3 on: February 08, 2012, 05:50:50 am »
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Plus, Brewer hasn't endorsed anybody yet.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: February 08, 2012, 05:52:03 am »

My understanding was that the Guam caucus was in March.  What's your source on it being in February?
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« Reply #5 on: February 08, 2012, 06:31:12 am »
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Maine: Paul
Michigan: Romney
Arizona: Romney
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« Reply #6 on: February 08, 2012, 07:43:19 am »
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Santorum on all three.
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« Reply #7 on: February 08, 2012, 08:17:47 am »
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Maine: Paul
Michigan: Romney
Arizona: Romney
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« Reply #8 on: February 08, 2012, 08:27:58 am »
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Wikipedia says it's the Northern Marina Islands that are having their primary.
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« Reply #9 on: February 08, 2012, 09:58:59 am »
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Maine: Paul
Guam: Romney
Michigan: Santorum
Arizona: Romney
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« Reply #10 on: February 08, 2012, 10:03:03 am »
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Michigan: Santorum

Really?
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« Reply #11 on: February 08, 2012, 10:09:08 am »
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Maine: Paul
Guam: Romney
Michigan: Santorum
Arizona: Romney
This.  Santorum can apeal to blue collar workers better than Romney could ever hope to.
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« Reply #12 on: February 08, 2012, 10:39:37 am »
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Maine: Paul
Obscure island: Romney
Michigan: Santorum
Arizona: Santorum
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« Reply #13 on: February 08, 2012, 11:10:16 am »
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Mormons make up a far larger percentage of the GOP electorate in Arizona than they do in Colorado. I don't see Romney losing there.

However I think people have been overestimating Romney's strength in Michigan. Santorum is a far better fit for a lot of those western MI conservatives and lower-middle-class voters. When Rick is winning in landslides in states like Minnesota and Missouri, I don't see why the fact that Romney's father was governor over 40 years ago is going to nullify the midwestern trend towards Santorum.
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« Reply #14 on: February 08, 2012, 11:21:50 am »
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If Santorum could win Michigan, I'd be happy for the rest of the year.
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« Reply #15 on: February 08, 2012, 12:07:51 pm »
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Maine: Paul
Guam: Romney (I guess? Is it a caucus or a primary? Because if it's a caucus we should never discount the Paultard presence)
Arizona: Romney
Michigan: Romney
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« Reply #16 on: February 08, 2012, 12:11:40 pm »
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Wiki says Northern Marianas are in February, Green Papers says on March 10.

What's correct ?
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« Reply #17 on: February 08, 2012, 12:31:59 pm »
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Maine: Romney
Guam: Romney
Michigan: Santorum
Arizona: Santorum
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« Reply #18 on: February 08, 2012, 01:20:31 pm »
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Forgive me if I'm mistaken, but if Romney doesn't win Michigan how does he remain viable? Never mind if Newt drops out and Santorum runs away with super-Tuesday.
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« Reply #19 on: February 08, 2012, 01:52:11 pm »
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Maine: Paul
Guam: Romney
Michigan: Romney (though Santorum will make it close)
Arizona: Romney
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Bacon King
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« Reply #20 on: February 08, 2012, 01:53:22 pm »

Northern Marianas are on March 10th. The Guam GOP looks like it hasn't announced their caucus date yet, but it's almost certainly not in the next couple of weeks.

Though, predictions!

Maine
Mitt Romney: 36%
Ron Paul: 33%
Newt Gingrich: 19%
Rick Santorum: 12%

Michigan
Romney: 33%
Santorum: 32%
Gingrich: 21%
Paul: 14%

Arizona
Romney: 39%
Santorum: 34%
Gingrich: 19%
Paul: 8%
« Last Edit: February 08, 2012, 02:09:09 pm by Bacon King, VP »Logged

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« Reply #21 on: February 08, 2012, 01:54:42 pm »
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Maine: Romney (maybe Paul)
Arizona: Romney
Michigan: Santorum
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« Reply #22 on: February 08, 2012, 02:10:48 pm »
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Maine: Paul
Arizona: Gingrich
Michigan: Santorum
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Korwinist
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« Reply #23 on: February 08, 2012, 03:10:54 pm »
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Maine: Paul (possibly Romney)
Michigan: Romney (possibly Santorum)
Arizona: Romney (possibly Santorum)
Guam: Romney (damned if I know who else could win)

Michigan is really iffy now. I woulda thought it'd be safe Romney seeing as how he basically has home field advantage, but then it's one of the best states in terms of demographics for Santorum (blue collar middle class workers and religious types inland).

I guess we'll see if Romney is willing to unload his attack ads like he did on Gingrich.

However, this race will be really boring if Santorum flounders like Gingrich now. So, GO SANTORUM! Heres to a brokered convention!
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« Reply #24 on: February 08, 2012, 03:20:16 pm »
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Maine: Paul
Michigan: Santorum
Arizona: Romney
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