How big would Romney's defeat be if he ran for reelection in 2006?
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  How big would Romney's defeat be if he ran for reelection in 2006?
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Author Topic: How big would Romney's defeat be if he ran for reelection in 2006?  (Read 3511 times)
MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« on: February 08, 2012, 04:45:05 PM »

Unfortunately, Mr. Greatness chickened out.

Now, take your guesses Smiley
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #1 on: February 08, 2012, 04:59:54 PM »
« Edited: February 08, 2012, 05:02:11 PM by Lief »

I doubt he would have done much better than this: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2006&fips=25&f=1&off=5&elect=0

His losing margin would have been similar to Santorum's 34% losing margin.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2 on: February 08, 2012, 05:01:17 PM »

I doubt he would have done much better than this: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html

His losing margin would have been similar to Santorum's 34% losing margin.

you must direct-link from outside of the results frameset.  example:
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&fips=19&f=1&off=0&elect=0
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MasterSanders
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« Reply #3 on: February 08, 2012, 05:10:18 PM »

18 points, give or take a few...
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #4 on: February 08, 2012, 05:12:42 PM »

Christy Mihos probably would have reached double digits in this scenario.  not sure if it would have increased Patrick's vote share.  btw glancing at the 06 gub map reminds me how pissed I was that anti-medical pot Don Carcieri survived in Rhode Island.
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King
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« Reply #5 on: February 08, 2012, 05:16:57 PM »

He would have done a couple of points better than Healey, who was a total nothing character.
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Boris
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« Reply #6 on: February 08, 2012, 05:31:54 PM »

Remember when Mitty was staunchly pro-Healey then became staunchly pro-Patrick just as the latter descended into the depths of unpopularity?
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #7 on: February 08, 2012, 05:55:54 PM »

IIRC Healey was actually relatively competitive (but still trailing) at the start of the campaign but managed to massively increase her own negatives without really affecting Patrick's by running nothing but negative ads.  Romney, despite his unpopularity, might've done better due to probably having a better campaign strategy.
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Thomas D
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« Reply #8 on: February 08, 2012, 09:46:54 PM »

56-44
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #9 on: February 08, 2012, 09:57:56 PM »

Remember when Mitty was staunchly pro-Healey then became staunchly pro-Patrick just as the latter descended into the depths of unpopularity?

Yes. Too bad he doesn't seem to post anymore. He was hilarious.

Anyway, a loss by 10-12% seems about right to me.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #10 on: February 08, 2012, 10:01:15 PM »

Obviously crushed in a landslide. I think he would have broken 40% but just barely.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #11 on: February 08, 2012, 10:11:07 PM »

I think he would have done worse than Santorum in '06.
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redcommander
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« Reply #12 on: February 08, 2012, 11:26:25 PM »

He wouldn't have lost as big as Santorum did.
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #13 on: February 09, 2012, 12:01:07 AM »

Romney wins by 14 points because he got the state out of the red and gave the people their much beloved Romneycare.
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Politico
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« Reply #14 on: February 09, 2012, 12:20:04 AM »

2006 was a bad year for Republicans, but Romney could have spent enough to win 45-45-10. He was better off spending elsewhere, though.
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RI
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« Reply #15 on: February 09, 2012, 01:26:41 AM »

If you're going to try to compare it to Santorum, the question should be how big would Romney's defeat be if he ran for reelection in 2006 against a Kennedy.
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jfern
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« Reply #16 on: February 09, 2012, 01:30:35 AM »

I'd say he loses by about 18 points.

If you're going to try to compare it to Santorum, the question should be how big would Romney's defeat be if he ran for reelection in 2006 against a Kennedy.

Against Ted Kennedy, he'd lose by 30.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #17 on: February 09, 2012, 02:04:51 AM »
« Edited: February 09, 2012, 02:18:11 AM by Senator North Carolina Yankee »

Probably an 8 to 12 point loss. Though Romney could have won had he been actually running because he did have accomplishments to run on that year. He had just signed the health care bill into law and could have ran on a platform of ensuring it's implementation, preserving the budget surplus he had created and maybe some education measures or something.

Without him running for reelection, there was a stream of anti-Romney press to help Patrick, with little or no response from Romney in his own defence. His approvals weren't all that terrible untill late in 2006. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=454ada23-20dc-41f0-9c0c-a8a2a45d653c

He was actually in postive territory as late June 2006, with 56% Approvals.

Edit: Misread the color code (I have always seen and used red for disapprove numbers since they are net negatives) and the date, lol fail. He was at parity in July, 48-48. Still very much a winnable situation.
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #18 on: February 09, 2012, 04:58:06 AM »

Probably about the same margin as Erhlich lost by in 2010. Something like 49-43-6.

Worth noting that given the dominance of the gay marriage issue at the time, its by no means certain that Romney would have been able to outspend his opponents.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #19 on: February 09, 2012, 08:04:58 AM »

It's hard to imagine because presumably he would have spent his last two years in office very differently if he had planned to run for reelection. He would have shown much less contempt for his state and its voters.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #20 on: February 09, 2012, 08:12:58 AM »

Would he have been able to get on the ballot?
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #21 on: February 09, 2012, 08:19:18 AM »

Would he have been able to get on the ballot?

Why wouldn't he be?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #22 on: February 09, 2012, 08:24:35 AM »

Lack of support, duh.

(It's called hyperbole, and it was not particularly well played.)
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CLARENCE 2015!
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« Reply #23 on: February 09, 2012, 08:30:10 AM »

This is the biggest hyporisy I find with Romney... Santorum won in 94, Romney lost- both in blue states. Santorum lost in 06 by sticking with his beliefs, Romney won in 02 by abandoning his beliefs andd id not run in 06 for fear of losing
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #24 on: February 09, 2012, 10:41:04 AM »

It's hard to imagine because presumably he would have spent his last two years in office very differently if he had planned to run for reelection. He would have shown much less contempt for his state and its voters.

Yeah, that's true but it isn't hard to imagine him losing just based on the year. He was never really popular, right?
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