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|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Mr. Morden, Bacon King, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | |-+  So, is Rick Santorum going to become president in 2016?
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Author Topic: So, is Rick Santorum going to become president in 2016?  (Read 1615 times)
Breaking hearts and minds
Old Europe
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« on: February 08, 2012, 05:03:20 pm »
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I'm asking because the answer is "yes" if you go by conventional rules. That and the fact that we have also laughed at the idea of Santorum winning Iowa or Colorado.

His successes during this primary season would make him the traditional "next-in-line". It already seems like Republicans don't break their "next-in-line" even if it means that they have to nominate Mitt Romney. Tongue And except for the 1981-1993 period, no party has controlled the White House for more than two presidential terms in the past 60 years.
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Odysseus
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« Reply #1 on: February 11, 2012, 06:15:07 pm »
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I could see him being the nominee, definately not being President.
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Nagas
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« Reply #2 on: February 11, 2012, 10:38:12 pm »
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The Democratic nominee would have to be weak or suffer a scandal. Cuomo or Schweitzer would destroy him.
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« Reply #3 on: February 12, 2012, 07:20:42 am »
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2000 to deny.
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« Reply #4 on: February 12, 2012, 09:17:18 am »
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The Democratic nominee would have to be weak or suffer a scandal. Cuomo or Schweitzer would destroy him.

Conventional wisdom says that 8 years is the most one party can get. Only exception in post FDR/Truman times, Reagan/Bush 12 years from 1981 to 1993, were a fluke.
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« Reply #5 on: February 17, 2012, 07:45:52 pm »
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Unless something tragic happens he won't become President in 2016, unless he already is.  He might in 2017, though.  Just stating facts here.
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« Reply #6 on: February 17, 2012, 08:48:17 pm »
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Very much doubt the GOP would let him pull an Adlai. He's losing big in November and he's done.
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« Reply #7 on: February 18, 2012, 04:26:46 am »
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With popular conservatives like Rubio, Jindal, McDonnell, and possibly Bush running next time around, I don't think he'd be able to pull it off. He's basically the just the last resort of the ABRs this time around.
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« Reply #8 on: February 25, 2012, 11:58:41 am »
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Yes, a third party moderate will peel off independents and Santorum will consolidate GOP support and win a la Lincoln 1860, Wilson 1912, Clinton 1992.
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« Reply #9 on: February 27, 2012, 10:20:39 pm »
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No.

If Rick is the nominee this time and wins, then he can't become president in 2016 as he'll already be president.

If Mitt is the nominee this time and wins, he'll be the GOP standard bearer in 2016, not Rick.

If Obama is reelected, then a whole crop of better candidates will run in 2016 for the open seat, and neither Mitt nor Rick will be the GOP nominee in 2016.

There is a remote chance that Rick could become president in 2020 after eight years as Vice President, but only Phil would ever be likely to bet on that.
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« Reply #10 on: February 29, 2012, 08:47:50 pm »
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The Democratic nominee would have to be weak or suffer a scandal. Cuomo or Schweitzer would destroy him.

Conventional wisdom says that 8 years is the most one party can get. Only exception in post FDR/Truman times, Reagan/Bush 12 years from 1981 to 1993, were a fluke.

I view that more as an issue of fatigue to get the years 9-12. Gore, Nixon (1960) and Ford ran close races in elections between two equal candidates each time. Hell, even Humphrey wasn't that far off, just swing 3 close states his way.

I think going for years 13-16 (ala Bush) doesn't typically pan out because the business cycle tends to rear its head by the then.

Assuming Obama wins, the Republicans are favored to win slightly between the benches (although both sides are phenomenal). Santorum would be a weak choice, though, and tip the scales to the Democrats.
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« Reply #11 on: February 29, 2012, 11:28:16 pm »
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No I doubt it, this is his chance. For him to do this well again without winning the presidency is extremely unlikely.  I think the idea of being VP for 8 years does get him a better chance in 2020, but we all know the trend of that.
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