Ron Paul's Ninja Delegates

[Bacon King]

Against my better judgement, I've been looking through the official Ron Paul 2012 forums to get a better sense of what exactly the selection of county delegates was last night. I became interested after hearing NPR interview several people in Minnesota, who each essentially said, "Yeah, Santorum won my precinct in a landslide, but I got picked as a delegate and I'm a Ron Paul supporter!" It appears, from sporadic anecdotal evidence anyway, that this pattern of Ron Paul winning state delegates out of thin air is incredibly widespread.

Some select quotations from the Ron Paul forums:

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And these are just from the threads about Colorado; there a lot more examples listed, and plenty of stuff from Minnesota- and references to similar stuff happening in Iowa as well. Are these exaggerated accounts of atypical caucus experiences, or has every caucus so far really been a stealth Ron Paul landslide?

[Grumpier Than Thou]

O.o

[Free Palestine]

Aren't yesterday's things non-binding?

Anyways, the whole ninja delegates thing would be hilarious.  Can delegates change their commitment, anyways?

[Bacon King]

Aren't yesterday's things non-binding?

Anyways, the whole ninja delegates thing would be hilarious.  Can delegates change their commitment, anyways?

Yes, the straw polls that took place in MN and CO meant absolutely nothing, essentially. The only thing that matters is the candidate preference of the delegates selected from each caucus. And what we're seeing is many precincts where Paul got <20% still picking a nearly complete slate of delegates that support Paul, indicating that the straw poll results significantly underestimate Ron Paul's eventual RNC delegate haul from the state. These state delegates can change their commitment, yeah; it's all nonbinding. However, these are serious Paul supporters we're talking about, it's not like they find anyone else bearable enough to vote for anyway.

[Mehmentum]

In addition, even delegates that are binding can change their mind at the GOP convention if it goes beyond the first vote.  There have been stories of Ron Paul supporters undercover as supporters of other candidates so that if the convention becomes deadlocked, they'll be able to vote for Paul. 

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Yeah, his campaign has been running a very delegate heavy strategy. I wouldn't be surprised were he dominating these non-binding caucuses in terms of delegates (which is the main reason I haven't left the forum, since I suspect rather strongly that Paul beat Santorum in the delegate count).

Of course, that doesn't translate into a win by any means. If there isn't a brokered convention, he would need to "officially" win at least 4 states or so to actually be able to "win" (otherwise, he could hypothetically steal the nomination with those tricky fake-Romney delegates switching). That isn't too big of a stretch (the Dakotas, Montana, Washington, Maine are five, and all aren't a stretch to see him winning even if things aren't going great).

He looks to be angling for influence with Romney, though, possibly trying to control the VP/treasury/Fed chairman. Romney would probably bend over backwards on the issues that the base supports, and he knows well enough that he is a weak enough candidate to fail without Paul's supporters. I guess we'll see in this exciting season

[Lief 🗽]

When exactly are the conventions to decide the national delegates? Because if they're in April or May, that's awesome. But if they're in June or something, then there'll probably be a nominee already and it won't matter.

[Jacobtm]

[Bacon King]

When exactly are the conventions to decide the national delegates? Because if they're in April or May, that's awesome. But if they're in June or something, then there'll probably be a nominee already and it won't matter.

Congressional district conventions, which appoint RNC delegates for their districts, seem to generally be in mid-April. State conventions that appoint the statewide delegates are in May or June.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Anyone remember what the Paulites did in Nevada in 2008?

[Lief 🗽]

Anyone remember what the Paulites did in Nevada in 2008?

Prepare to witness that in every single caucus state.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That fiasco is probably why Nevada made the straw poll binding this year. Can only imagine how many other states will be wishing they had followed suit.

[Bacon King]

In somewhat related news, after examing the Ron Paul forums, I can now introduce to you all the stupidest meme in all of the internet:

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Those memes are just stupid. Some of the other things I've seen on Paul forums are closer to terrifying. We're talking literal Maoist style criticism and self-criticism.

In 2008 I remember after a flare up of the racist newsletters thing and Paul's first official response I checked out some Paul forums and it was full of people basically begging for forgiveness for ever doubting even for a second in Paul and people were talking about doing things like selling their cars so they could donate more money to Paul in atonement and a ton of "Wow I am so unworthy of the gloriousness of Paul!" stuff. You could probably simply replace "Paul" with "Jesus" in many of those posts and they would seem like they came off some evangelical site.

[Hatman 🍁]

What happened in Nevada in 2008?

[Bacon King]

Indeed, BRTD, these are some creepy people we're talking about.

In addition, even delegates that are binding can change their mind at the GOP convention if it goes beyond the first vote.  There have been stories of Ron Paul supporters undercover as supporters of other candidates so that if the convention becomes deadlocked, they'll be able to vote for Paul. 

Just to clarify on this point; what I'm referring to in this thread are the delegates to the state party conventions and such. The "stealth delegates" you're referring to are RNC delegates, to the national convention. But yes, they are indeed real.

So, brokered convention?
disgonbegood.gif

[Bacon King]

What happened in Nevada in 2008?

http://www.lvrj.com/news/18312799.html

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[Linus Van Pelt]

This is kind of emblematic of the Paul people's approach to governing in general: totally obsessed with following the procedural rules of the Constitution to the letter, but unconcerned with whether the result is otherwise democratic, humane or just.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

As has been said before, if Romney tried to pull this stunt against Paul supporters, they would be all like "OMG EVOL ESTABLISHMENT FRAUDZORZ" and so on.

[Simfan34]

Well, no wonder the GOP in Nevada has fallen to pieces! This is the kind of disgusting stuff Paul people would rant against had it been used against them. It's nothing less than a total subversion of the democratic process.

[tpfkaw]

Excusez-moi, but why would Nevada, which voted for Romney in 2008, electing a slate of Paul (second-place) delegates be more "undemocratic" than electing a slate of McCain (third-place) delegates?

As it is, Romney delegates were actually the majority in NV in '08; they joined forces with the Paul delegates against the McCainites.

[CatoMinor]

Excusez-moi, but why would Nevada, which voted for Romney in 2008, electing a slate of Paul (second-place) delegates be more "undemocratic" than electing a slate of McCain (third-place) delegates?

As it is, Romney delegates were actually the majority in NV in '08; they joined forces with the Paul delegates against the McCainites.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[TheGlobalizer]

This is kind of emblematic of the Paul people's approach to governing in general: totally obsessed with following the procedural rules of the Constitution to the letter, but unconcerned with whether the result is otherwise democratic, humane or just.

And God bless them for it.

[Bacon King]

Forum Paultards: have any of you seen any actual Iowa precinct reports regarding county delegate selection? I've seen Paul campaign stuff saying they have the delegates to control the caucuses of "all the small counties" as well as some people claiming "statewide, 70% of county delegates are Paul supporters," but I haven't found any concrete or even anecdotal evidence to support these assertions.     

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Forum Paultards: have any of you seen any actual Iowa precinct reports regarding county delegate selection? I've seen Paul campaign stuff saying they have the delegates to control the caucuses of "all the small counties" as well as some people claiming "statewide, 70% of county delegates are Paul supporters," but I haven't found any concrete or even anecdotal evidence to support these assertions.     

Bacontard: All you can get is hearsay from people that have been to these caucuses.  I'm optimistic, but it's a what and see for the upcoming county/state level conventions - however they do it in Iowa (I'm thinking Minnesota, since I've been in that process.)