Ron Paul's Ninja Delegates

[Erc]

The abysmal turnout may play a role in all of this; if the number of delegates to the county/BPOU convention is of the same order of magnitude as the number of people who show up to the caucus in the first place, of course the more committed people (regardless of candidate support) are more likely to get selected as delegates.  This is more true of CO/MN than Iowa, of course.

As usual, my line is to simply ignore these reports until we get any solid press from the next round of conventions.

If Paul should manage to pull this off, though, it is only in 7 states: IA/CO/MN/ME/WA/MO/NE.  Of course, that is a maximum of 237 delegates at stake, plus whatever pittance he wins in other states.  Of course, that's over 10% of the delegates, which isn't an insignificant amount.

[Oakvale]

Forum Paultards: have any of you seen any actual Iowa precinct reports regarding county delegate selection? I've seen Paul campaign stuff saying they have the delegates to control the caucuses of "all the small counties" as well as some people claiming "statewide, 70% of county delegates are Paul supporters," but I haven't found any concrete or even anecdotal evidence to support these assertions.     

Bacontard: All you can get is hearsay from people that have been to these caucuses.  I'm optimistic, but it's a what and see for the upcoming county/state level conventions - however they do it in Iowa (I'm thinking Minnesota, since I've been in that process.)

What's a Bacontard? Someone who fanatically supports bacon?

If so, sign me up immediately.

[King]

Even if this doesn't give Paul the nomination, this means the RNC will be FILLED with Paul supporters. If Romney or Santorum get the nomination, they might get booed during their acceptance speech if they bring up foreign and social policy. That would be disasterous.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Even if this doesn't give Paul the nomination, this means the RNC will be FILLED with Paul supporters. If Romney or Santorum get the nomination, they might get booed during their acceptance speech if they bring up foreign and social policy. That would be disasterous.

Hopefully, I will be one of those booing

[TheGlobalizer]

Even if this doesn't give Paul the nomination, this means the RNC will be FILLED with Paul supporters. If Romney or Santorum get the nomination, they might get booed during their acceptance speech if they bring up foreign and social policy. That would be disasterous.

Hopefully, I will be one of those booing

FF

[Yelnoc]

Forum Paultards: have any of you seen any actual Iowa precinct reports regarding county delegate selection? I've seen Paul campaign stuff saying they have the delegates to control the caucuses of "all the small counties" as well as some people claiming "statewide, 70% of county delegates are Paul supporters," but I haven't found any concrete or even anecdotal evidence to support these assertions.     

Bacontard: All you can get is hearsay from people that have been to these caucuses.  I'm optimistic, but it's a what and see for the upcoming county/state level conventions - however they do it in Iowa (I'm thinking Minnesota, since I've been in that process.)

What's a Bacontard? Someone who fanatically supports bacon?

If so, sign me up immediately.

Aye, in fact, I think I will change my profile stuff in support.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Here's a friend's report (in chatlog form) from the caucuses in MN:

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oh, and this:

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[Rules for me, but not for thee]

What's a Bacontard? Someone who fanatically supports bacon?

If so, sign me up immediately.

Aye, in fact, I think I will change my profile stuff in support.

I think a bacontard platform could sweep this presidential election.  Who doesn't like bacon? 

[Mehmentum]

Forum Paultards: have any of you seen any actual Iowa precinct reports regarding county delegate selection? I've seen Paul campaign stuff saying they have the delegates to control the caucuses of "all the small counties" as well as some people claiming "statewide, 70% of county delegates are Paul supporters," but I haven't found any concrete or even anecdotal evidence to support these assertions.     

Bacontard: All you can get is hearsay from people that have been to these caucuses.  I'm optimistic, but it's a what and see for the upcoming county/state level conventions - however they do it in Iowa (I'm thinking Minnesota, since I've been in that process.)

What's a Bacontard? Someone who fanatically supports bacon?

If so, sign me up immediately.

Aye, in fact, I think I will change my profile stuff in support.

FF

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

What's a Bacontard? Someone who fanatically supports bacon?

If so, sign me up immediately.

Aye, in fact, I think I will change my profile stuff in support.

I think a bacontard platform could sweep this presidential election.  Who doesn't like bacon? 

The Jews that control the media

[Paleobrazilian]

This also comes from a Paultard, I don't know how accurate this count is, but hey, if those ninja delegates are for real, and this drags all the way to the convention, we could see quite something happening.

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And then comes his count...

Code:

Date	State	Gingrich
Pledged	Paul
Pledged	Romney
Pledged	Santorum
Pledged	Unpledged
Caucus Selected	Unpledged
Party Selected	Unpledged
Party Leaders	Unpledged
Released
Jan 3	Iowa	0	0	0	0	25	0	3	0
Jan 10	New Hampshire	0	3	7	0	0	0	0	2
Jan 21	South Carolina	23	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
Jan 31	Florida	0	0	50	0	0	0	0	0
Feb 4	Nevada	6	5	14	3	0	0	0	0
Feb 7	Colorado	0	0	0	0	33	0	3	0
	Minnesota	0	0	0	0	37	0	3	0
 									
Totals		29	8	73	3	95	0	9	2

Suppose 50% of those unpledged delegates are Paultards.... That could be something.

http://www.capitalfreepress.com/republican-primary-delegate-allocation-2012/

[Mehmentum]

It looks like Santorum may have the most to loose if Paul's ninja delegates pull through for him.  So far, they'd impact, Iowa, Minnesotta, and Colorada, all states Santorum won.

[Paleobrazilian]

Unfortunately for Paul, the number of states with unbound-only delegates won't be that big from now on.

[Lief 🗽]

If Paul should manage to pull this off, though, it is only in 7 states: IA/CO/MN/ME/WA/MO/NE.  Of course, that is a maximum of 237 delegates at stake, plus whatever pittance he wins in other states.  Of course, that's over 10% of the delegates, which isn't an insignificant amount.

How are delegates chosen in the other caucus states, like Alaska or North Dakota? Is it similar to how NV does it, proportionally based on the straw vote?

[Erc]

If Paul should manage to pull this off, though, it is only in 7 states: IA/CO/MN/ME/WA/MO/NE.  Of course, that is a maximum of 237 delegates at stake, plus whatever pittance he wins in other states.  Of course, that's over 10% of the delegates, which isn't an insignificant amount.

How are delegates chosen in the other caucus states, like Alaska or North Dakota? Is it similar to how NV does it, proportionally based on the straw vote?

Alaska allocates their delegates proportionally, though the percentage of the Tampa delegates each district convention gets to choose is ordained ahead of time (i.e. differential turnout doesn't matter). 

Idaho does a similar system, but has recaucusing at each precinct until someone gets a majority or there are only two candidates left.

Kansas allocates more like Tennessee (proportional to the vote, with a 20% cutoff), so Paul is probably completely screwed here.  Hawaii also does it proportionally, but with no cutoff.

North Dakota allocates delegates "in such a way so that they best reflect the presidential preference of the Caucus participants."  What that means is up to interpretation, and it's possible that a Paulite junta could interpret that very liberally.

[Lief 🗽]

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Excellent.

[King]

[Bacon King]

Forum Paultards: have any of you seen any actual Iowa precinct reports regarding county delegate selection? I've seen Paul campaign stuff saying they have the delegates to control the caucuses of "all the small counties" as well as some people claiming "statewide, 70% of county delegates are Paul supporters," but I haven't found any concrete or even anecdotal evidence to support these assertions.     

Bacontard: All you can get is hearsay from people that have been to these caucuses.  I'm optimistic, but it's a what and see for the upcoming county/state level conventions - however they do it in Iowa (I'm thinking Minnesota, since I've been in that process.)

Indeed, the only thing that's out there is hearsay, of course, but I'd at least like to see some precinct reports for Iowa like the ones from Colorado in the OP. I can't even find even a single shred anecdotal evidence to support the Paul people's claims about Iowa county delegates. In fact, the single example I've been able to was someone mentioning that Ron Paul won the precinct, but Santorum voters were picked to go to the county convention.

The abysmal turnout may play a role in all of this; if the number of delegates to the county/BPOU convention is of the same order of magnitude as the number of people who show up to the caucus in the first place, of course the more committed people (regardless of candidate support) are more likely to get selected as delegates.  This is more true of CO/MN than Iowa, of course.

As usual, my line is to simply ignore these reports until we get any solid press from the next round of conventions.

If Paul should manage to pull this off, though, it is only in 7 states: IA/CO/MN/ME/WA/MO/NE.  Of course, that is a maximum of 237 delegates at stake, plus whatever pittance he wins in other states.  Of course, that's over 10% of the delegates, which isn't an insignificant amount.

I certainly agree with you regarding Iowa: the caucuses are much more of a tradition there, so more Republicans are willing to participate and it's thus much less likely for Ron Paul's supporters to "abuse" the system there. That, coupled with the fact that I haven't been able to find any on-the-ground reports from Iowa, make me doubt that they pulled a coup there on the scale that they (may have) accomplished in Colorado or Minnesota.

And of course these delegates certainly wouldn't hand Ron Paul the nomination, but it might be enough to make the difference for a brokered convention (and regardless, as King pointed out, having a bunch of devout Paulites in the RNC audience would still be incredibly amusing).

And if there is a brokered convention, then another sort of Ninja Delegates come into play: those who enter the RNC pledged to another candidate, but who will switch their support to Ron Paul if the convention has a second/third ballot. Many states with primaries appoint their delegates similar to the way caucus states do, only that they're pledged to support the state's primary winner on the first (sometimes also the second) ballot. I'd love to look into this as well, and see how widespread this "undercover Paul delegate" practice is.

Forum Paultards: have any of you seen any actual Iowa precinct reports regarding county delegate selection? I've seen Paul campaign stuff saying they have the delegates to control the caucuses of "all the small counties" as well as some people claiming "statewide, 70% of county delegates are Paul supporters," but I haven't found any concrete or even anecdotal evidence to support these assertions.     

Bacontard: All you can get is hearsay from people that have been to these caucuses.  I'm optimistic, but it's a what and see for the upcoming county/state level conventions - however they do it in Iowa (I'm thinking Minnesota, since I've been in that process.)

What's a Bacontard? Someone who fanatically supports bacon?

If so, sign me up immediately.

Aye, in fact, I think I will change my profile stuff in support.

Now, I shall go lurk Ron Paul forums once more to see if I can find any more details on all of this.

[Bacon King]

It's looking very possible that Ron Paul seriously overperformed with delegates in Nevada as well; the eventual RNC delegates selected are bound by the strawpoll result, of course, but that doesn't mean there won't be lots of fun at the state convention again!

Some examples:

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[Grumpier Than Thou]

Oh my God.

[Lief 🗽]

It's looking very possible that Ron Paul seriously overperformed with delegates in Nevada as well; the eventual RNC delegates selected are bound by the strawpoll result, of course, but that doesn't mean there won't be lots of fun at the state convention again!

Some examples:

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Yeah, when I was tabulating NV results from twitter last Saturday, Paul overperforming his straw poll results in delegates was a pretty constant theme. Of course, Paul supporters believing this meant something wrt to national delegates was also a constant theme.

[Bacon King]

Bumping this because there's a lot of news out of county conventions in several states today, and I don't want to clog up the Nevada thread.

First, let me repost everything from the other thread:

Minnesota Senate District 8, which voted ~50% Santorum and ~20 Paul:

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Iowa:

More Ninja Delegate reports; these are all from Iowa:

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News from the Iowa County Conventions, unfortunately from a Ron Paul blog, but still!

Harrison County: 7 delegates for Paul, 3 for Santorum, 3 for Romney, 1 for Gingrich. Santorum won the caucus straw poll in January with 31%. link

Harrison County's caucus results: 16.92% Paul
Harrison County's delegates to district and state conventions: 50% Paul

The ninja delegates strike!!!

[Lief 🗽]

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hahah delightful.

[Bacon King]

I'm also reading a lot of stuff from Ron Paul supporters in Georgia, where the delegates are selected through a county/district/state convention process but pledged as per the state's rules. There seems to be an active effort here to select Ron Paul "shadow delegates" in Georgia who enter the convention pledged to Gingrich:

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For the record, these delegates (presumably, almost all Gingrich delegates) are pledged until after the second ballot, until the candidate gets less than a third of the vote at the RNC, or until the candidate withdraws himself from consideration, whichever comes first. Of course, this is assuming Gingrich stays in until the convention anyway, or that the Paultards don't just ignore the pledged delegate rules (there's some talk that they might, apparently).

[Lief 🗽]

So if Gingrich drops out before the convention, Ron Paul potentially gets some Georgia delegates?