Maine results thread.

[Alcon]

Another update from the Paulites, with early Cumberland County looking strong for Romney and Rick Santorum rising modestly in late results:

Paul 433 (43%)
Romney 383 (38%)
Santorum 128 (13%)
Gingrich 64 (6%)
Other 4 (0%)

Of course, this is all ridiculousness and unrepresentative.  I'm still feeling Romney +5.

[Alcon]

From a Paulite on Twitter:

paul wins androscoggin county! Paul 212, Romney 140, Santorum 130, Gingrich 12 #mecaucus

Paul got 26% there in 2008, well above his statewide numbers, so not necessarily an amazing sign.  Interestingly, those Santorum numbers are higher than I'd expect (relative to Romney) in Androscoggin.

[Alcon]

Where is the Paulite twitter link you guys are plumbing?

It's probably just some dude on Twitter.  The hashtag is #mecaucus.  I'm not seeing the tweet in question, though.

[Alcon]

I don't really understand the Romney-hatred.

I think it's pretty clear that people's objections to Romney aren't political so much as personal.

[Alcon]

http://www.rentadrone.tv/cnn-live-stream/

[Alcon]

Announcement coming after a "few words"

People laughing at the Chair calling Maine a "beauty contest"; he talks sort of like a Northeastern Elmer Fudd

[Alcon]

Unofficial, non-binding poll (e.g., more people have to vote)

Mitt Romney wins

[Alcon]

Romney 2,190 (39%)
Paul 1,996 (36%)
Santorum 989 (18%)
Gingrich 349 (6%)
Others 61

Almost exactly what I expected

[Alcon]

It's close enough that Ron Paul still has a chance at actually winning it, though.

Really?  How much is left?  If it's just a few scattered caucuses, Paul is screwed.  If this is some sort of weird "optional, some caucus sites do it" kinda thing, I guess Paul's still in it if he gets lucky.

I assume it's the former, though, since Intrade just went to like 99.9% Romney.

[Alcon]

It's close enough that Ron Paul still has a chance at actually winning it, though.

Really?  How much is left?  If it's just a few scattered caucuses, Paul is screwed.  If this is some sort of weird "optional, some caucus sites do it" kinda thing, I guess Paul's still in it if he gets lucky.

I assume it's the former, though, since Intrade just went to like 99.9% Romney.

All of Washington County is still out, but, yeah, they aren't going to make up 200 vote margin.  Last cycle there were only 192 votes cast in that county according to what I saw earlier.

Not to mention that I wouldn't be surprised if Washington County were Romney's best county in the state.

Turnout was actually up over 2008, which is mildly hilarious.

[Alcon]

Apparently, about 16% of precincts aren't included in the straw poll, which may indicate that more than Washington County is outstanding.  Still, it'd have to be a pretty decent Paulslide.

[Alcon]

Somehow I confused Washington and York Counties...Washington County is the poorest county in Maine.  Sorry.

I'm not clear on why McCain won there, but in such ridiculously self-selective caucus environments, there may not be a demographic explanation.

[Alcon]

good lord guys, do you just assume that Ron Paul automatically loses 10% in every race based on election fraud?

Another amusing turnout-related statistic for Maine:

Maine straw poll votes: 5,524
CPAC straw poll votes: 3,408

[Alcon]

I wonder how many Paul votes will be found deep in the Adirondacks two years from now.

Wrong mountain range, in the wrong state. Actually, the mountains where the stolen Paul votes are, are rather prosaically called the "Northern Appalachians."  And yes, Alcon the votes were stolen, and I have marked their location, in case Twilight Sparkle wants to put on his knapsack, and his snowshoes, and his scuba gear (since they are at the bottom of a lake), and hike over there to retrieve them.

[Alcon]

It is significant because Paul was expected to win. 

Not really.  Intrade had Romney up in Maine until this afternoon, when Paul was "expected to win" for a few hours.

[Alcon]

Per @fivethirtyeight:

"Maine neglected to count results from caucuses in Waterville, and Waldo County, which were strong for Paul in 2008."

Bangor Daily Nwes - "Pressure mounting for GOP caucus reconsideration"
http://bangordailynews.com/2012/02/14/politics/elections/pressure-mounting-for-gop-caucus-reconsideration/

[Alcon]

Another black-eye for Romney! He loses two-one to a candidate he outpolled by 3% statewide last week. What a bone-headed move it was by Romney not to wait patiently for the folks in Washington County to vote. He would have had an apperently victory last week, and, a confirmed victory this week. Instead, he offended the folks in Washington county and they replied with a slap in his face.

Or, more likely, the Maine GOP mobilized a small section of Paul voters who never supported Romney, in a vote Romney is (very rationally) pretending isn't happening.