Will be map basically be status quo, similar to the 1996 race?

[sg0508]

I just have that "feeling" that at the end of the day, especially if the job market continues to slowly improve as we head toward spring/summer, that re-election for Obama will be inevitable.  Not that the economy will be near what it was in 1996, but the opponent either way is going to have serious baggage.  Dole didn't inspire anyone and this field isn't inspiring many either.  Dole had no message outside of the 25% cut, which never hit home and nobody in this field has one either. 

Also, Gingrich comes across as angry and somewhat out of touch.  Romney comes across that the smug top 1% executive who smiles at you one minute and fires you the next and Santorum's social positions (fair or not) are not going to help him with "moderate" America.

In 1996, only five states swung and Clinton actually admitted to blowing some near election time (GA, NC, VA, etc).  I could see a very similar situation this year where the turnout won't be very good, but Obama wins very comfortably again.  Perhaps only a few states have a chance to switch (IN, NC, AZ, etc).

[Sasquatch]

I thought for awhile that this will be a 1996 type election. This race will be over by 10pm (EST) on election night.

[NHI]

I'm not so sure, maybe like 2004. Though if it's Romney I think he might win it.

[adrac]

The margin of victory will probably be somewhere between 1996 and 2004, in Obama's favor.

[pbrower2a]

I just have that "feeling" that at the end of the day, especially if the job market continues to slowly improve as we head toward spring/summer, that re-election for Obama will be inevitable.  Not that the economy will be near what it was in 1996, but the opponent either way is going to have serious baggage.  Dole didn't inspire anyone and this field isn't inspiring many either.  Dole had no message outside of the 25% cut, which never hit home and nobody in this field has one either. 

Also, Gingrich comes across as angry and somewhat out of touch.  Romney comes across that the smug top 1% executive who smiles at you one minute and fires you the next and Santorum's social positions (fair or not) are not going to help him with "moderate" America.

In 1996, only five states swung and Clinton actually admitted to blowing some near election time (GA, NC, VA, etc).  I could see a very similar situation this year where the turnout won't be very good, but Obama wins very comfortably again.  Perhaps only a few states have a chance to switch (IN, NC, AZ, etc).

Really, 1992, 1996, and 2008 had similar elections in electoral votes. Obama won some states (IN, NC, VA) that Clinton never won; he won two sates that Clinton won in one election and lost in the next or vice-versa (CO, FL) and came close in two such states (GA, MT) while losing one such state (AZ) by less than the margin of the usual margin for a favorite son. Obama lost six states that Clinton won twice  (MO barely, but AR, KY, LA, TN, and WV) decisively. He would likely exchange NE-02 for NE-01.

There isn't much on the margin. President Obama will win Ohio because of the auto bailout, Colorado is becoming a GOP disaster due to its demographics. Florida might be -- if Governor Rick Scott does some corrupt electioneering (he would fail at honest electioneering) that rigs the statewide election to save himself and his cronies. Would he do so in the certainty of an Obama victory without such questionable aid? Not unless he wants to risk a federal probe.   Virginia could easily repeat 2008.

States that I see on the bubble are now relatively few -- Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina. If President Obama picks up the sorts of voters that went for Clinton twice but not for him, then he is on the way to an election like that of 1956, when Eisenhower won big. Such implies four of the five of the Inner Arc of states from Louisiana to West Virginia, Georgia, and Texas as well as every state that was on the bubble in 2008.

I thought for awhile that this will be a 1996 type election. This race will be over by 10pm (EST) on election night.

 

It could be effectively over when the networks call Ohio, the usual swing state that counts its votes fastest.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

The margin of victory will probably be somewhere between 1996 and 2004, in Obama's favor.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The margin of victory will probably be somewhere between 1996 and 2004, in Obama's favor.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

The margin of victory will probably be somewhere between 1996 and 2004, in Obama's favor.

[TomC]

The margin of victory will probably be somewhere between 1996 and 2004, in Obama's favor.

Yup- between 300 and 350.

[redcommander]

Not with this economy it won"t. Obama will be lucky enough to be reelected with a Bush 04 margin.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Not with this economy it won"t. Obama will be lucky enough to be reelected with a Bush 04 margin.

Cool story bro.

[redcommander]

Not with this economy it won"t. Obama will be lucky enough to be reelected with a Bush 04 margin.

Cool story bro.

Yep, Obama's going to win reelection with 360 electoral votes again. Obama is no Clinton, and the economy is not booming like it was in 96. Also, Romney is no Dole. Any Democrat who believes that this election is not going to be difficult for Obama is in denial.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Yep, Obama's going to win reelection with 360 electoral votes again. Obama is no Clinton, and the economy is not booming like it was in 96.

The economy was booming in '96? Cool story, bro.

[redcommander]

Yep, Obama's going to win reelection with 360 electoral votes again. Obama is no Clinton, and the economy is not booming like it was in 96.

The economy was booming in '96? Cool story, bro.

How else would you describe it? 2.5 million jobs were created that year, inflation was at 3%, and unemployment was at an average of 5.4% the entire year, not the mid 8% range Obama is going to face.