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| | |-+  Romney's rivals conceding Arizona to him....for now
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Author Topic: Romney's rivals conceding Arizona to him....for now  (Read 625 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: February 10, 2012, 05:07:15 am »

Gingrich is already focusing on Super Tuesday states and Santorum on Michigan plus Super Tuesday states.  Paul will probably play in Michigan as well, since you only need to get 15% to at least get some delegates.  But Arizona is statewide WTA, and it looks like, at least for the moment, all of Romney's rivals think challenging him there is hopeless, and they're planning to concede it:

http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/02/romneys-rivals-seem-content-to.php

Obviously, this might still change, but for now it looks like Arizonans might be spared two solid weeks of nonstop campaign ads.
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« Reply #1 on: February 10, 2012, 05:52:36 am »
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Color me surprised. Arizona is a very sex-oriented state. This is supported by the link below. One would assume states where the people engage in copious amounts of sex would be fertile ground for Newt Gingrich or Ron Pul. Mitt Romney is the last person these people would flock to for obvious reasons. 

http://womensissues.about.com/od/datingandsex/a/TeenPregStates.htm
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Duke
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« Reply #2 on: February 10, 2012, 10:19:31 am »
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I guess they are playing the gaming the expectations game. If Romney wins big, they can claim it was uncontested. If he limps to a win, they can claim a momentum shift.
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Lief
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« Reply #3 on: February 10, 2012, 12:20:27 pm »
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Arizona also only has 29 delegates. Not insignificant, but not that big of a game-changer either.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #4 on: February 10, 2012, 12:38:33 pm »
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I think that Santorum should make at least a play for Arizona. Even if Mitt wins Michigan, this can prevent all of Mitt-unstopable narrative that can be bad at SuperTuesday.
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« Reply #5 on: February 10, 2012, 04:22:47 pm »
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Rod, Santorum has a far better shot at winning Michigan than Arizona.
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« Reply #6 on: February 10, 2012, 04:26:00 pm »
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Part of it maybe is that AZ is a winner take all state, so there are no delegates in play for someone running who can not manage to get a plurality of the vote. Plus anyone can vote in the MI primary, so all those Dems who want to stop Mitt can express themselves.
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« Reply #7 on: February 10, 2012, 04:30:39 pm »
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When's the next debate? We went from having too much to being sorely in need.
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« Reply #8 on: February 10, 2012, 04:58:55 pm »
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Plus anyone can vote in the MI primary, so all those Dems who want to stop Mitt can express themselves.

AKA "Operation Backdoor Phase II"

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« Reply #9 on: February 10, 2012, 05:43:17 pm »
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Romney just needs to hold on until all the states are WTA, then he will use his money to squeeze out the rest of the field and get the needed delegates. He will destroy whoever he needs to, drive up his own negatives and reduce turnout in the process but it will get him the win
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« Reply #10 on: February 10, 2012, 05:45:56 pm »
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When's the next debate? We went from having too much to being sorely in need.
February 22.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #11 on: February 10, 2012, 05:49:50 pm »

Romney just needs to hold on until all the states are WTA,

There is no such point at which all states are WTA.  The only pure statewide WTA states and territories are:

http://twitter.com/#!/FHQ/status/167416214438686722

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FL, AZ, PR, DC, DE, NJ & UT (228 total delegates)

Everything else is either WTA by congressional district, proportional representation, or some kind of hybrid, with the hybrid category being the most common.
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