Obama/Santorum map

[Devils30]

Probably won't happen but I think it would make for some interesting numbers. I can see Santorum running strongly in Ohio relatively and putting up great totals in appalachia. However, NH would be off the table with him and probably NV and CO as well while making AZ a toss. Florida is also another bad state for him and Obama would likely have a better chance here than in Ohio.

[Ljube]

I already posted elsewhere. This is a realistic map. Santorum can't go lower than this.

[Tender Branson]

Maybe this:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=gwB

or this:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=gwC

or this:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=gwD

[pbrower2a]

I already posted elsewhere. This is a realistic map. Santorum can't go lower than this.

No, that is an "I hope" map. It assumes that President Obama will falter -- a big assumption contrary to his character and personal history. He is not a schlemiel; he is not a poseur riding good luck sure to fail. Are you betting on an economic collapse, a military or diplomatic disaster, or a breaking scandal? 

Rick Santorum has big problems. He is an authoritarian populist, which will play well in most of the South -- in places that President Obama did badly in in 2008.  His defeat in Pennsylvania in 2006 suggests that Pennsylvanians know something about him that you don't know. Rick Santorum  has stronger ties to George W. Bush than does any other R candidate for President at any time since the 2012 campaign began -- and that includes such people who have since dropped out (Palin, Perry, Bachmann, Cain, Huntsman, Trump) as an enforcer in the Senate. Dubya has yet to be 'rehabilitated'

Recent polls suggest that Rick Santorum would fare badly in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.  He is behind in Missouri and North Carolina, if within the margin of error.

This is what specific binary polls have on Santorum so far:


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Santorum

 

Filling out a medium shade of red for other states best described as nearly-sure things for the President, a medium shade of blue for those that about ever Republican nominee should win  and white for those that are iffy and unpolled we get:

That's how things seem to be at the moment. That's while I know nothing about many of the states that President Obama lost in 2008. I really don't know how well Rick Santorum would do in the Clinton-but-not-Obama states or the Plains states. As a militant Catholic he might offend the heavily-Lutheran populations of the Upper Plains states. Just take a good look at Minnesota. Minnesota can vote for a Catholic who doesn't rub Catholicism in their faces (Kennedy, Kerry). If Santorum is being crushed in Minnesota, then he is likely being crushed in Iowa and Wisconsin. Lutherans on the whole are a conservative lot, but push a militant and intolerant 'alternative' conservatism upon them and they will side with liberals.

But some things are apparent so far. He might not do as badly in Arizona (that is one of the first polls to show him in a binary matchup between him and President Obama, and that antedates his surge in the GOP primaries) as my map shows, but you can infer that he would do very badly in all states that border or nearly-border (i.e., Colorado) Arizona except for Utah. He didn't show as well in Texas as I would expect of a nationwide winner -- that is, he appeared even weaker than John McCain.   To be sure, any state in pink is somewhat iffy but with a current advantage to the President.

I can imagine Rick Santorum doing even worse than my map shows.  If the President offers a more populist message, then he can win back some of the Clinton-but-not-Obama states. I can imagine the President winning the Upper Plains if Lutherans get a scare from a militant Catholic who reminds Lutherans of why Luther split from the Catholic Church. I can imagine an LBJ-1964 blowout if the President has an approval rating in the high 50s... something that I cannot now rule out.

 

[Devils30]

Santorum may be close in Ohio but I dont even think he'd win there. PA he will get clobbered big in metro Philly and likely not have a great shot in his home state. I think Florida would be very problematic as it contains a large number of wealthy but pro-choice Republicans on the coasts who may think santorum is a complete whacko.

[Devils30]

If Obama wins by 4-5 nationally could be something along these lines
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=gwT

[© tweed]

Obama wins by 10 nationwide and around 400EV

approaches 2/3 in CA, NY, MA, IL, etc to rack up PV.

[minionofmidas]

This is the one that looks most like the last one or a natural followup to it. With Romney, you'll get some degree of snapback to an earlier alignment.

[© tweed]

This is the one that looks most like the last one or a natural followup to it. With Romney, you'll get some degree of snapback to an earlier alignment.

a Romney that take until June to seal up the nomination could draw out a map very similar to 2008.

[LastVoter]

Complete collapse of the Republican party in the west coast, might win by Midwest(Ohio & PA) if  unemployment is above 10%.
This would probably be an election which shifts coalitions somewhat, solidifying the west as democratic stronghold, giving Midwest to the Republicans, and continuing the transformation of the east coast.
edit: colors adjusted

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Santorum is a good communicator and has a consistent enough message not to be blown out of the water.  The only way Santorum gets killed is:

1) if he keeps to his past tendency of being a troll
2) if his past trolling is somehow effectively brought to light

outside of PA, only political junkies know about his inflammatory trollish past.

[minionofmidas]

This is the one that looks most like the last one or a natural followup to it. With Romney, you'll get some degree of snapback to an earlier alignment.

a Romney that take until June to seal up the nomination could draw out a map very similar to 2008.

No. A Romney that takes until June to seal the nomination and is heavily damaged as a result might fail to regain votes in the west, but in that case he'd also get utterly killed in the rust. Like, Goldwater style killed.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Why does everyone think that Santorum would perform well in Ohio?  If anything, he'll do worse than McCain.

[minionofmidas]

Why does everyone think that Santorum would perform well in Ohio? 

Relative to Romney and their respective national tallies?

Gee, I have no idea. Possibly common sense.

[Jacobtm]

Obama will improve on his 2008 results if Santorum is his opponent.

Can't believe Santorum isn't seen as a straight clown by Republicans.

[hotpprs]

Why does everyone think that Santorum would perform well in Ohio?  If anything, he'll do worse than McCain.

How do you figure McCain had or has  more appeal to Ohio voters?
Santorum is more socially conservative and held office in a rust belt state.
Any appeal McCain had to them, Santorum has plus more.

[Devils30]

Santorum/Obama starts here:

Romney/Obama:

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Why does everyone think that Santorum would perform well in Ohio?  If anything, he'll do worse than McCain.

How do you figure McCain had or has  more appeal to Ohio voters?
Santorum is more socially conservative and held office in a rust belt state.
Any appeal McCain had to them, Santorum has plus more.

McCain was a moderate running in a Hillary Clinton state.  He had a legitimate shot at winning it, but lost, largely due to his Palin selection.  Santorum is very similar to Palin, ideologically.  If McCain couldn't win it, I don't see how Santorum could do much better.

[Devils30]

Santorum would also be much better for Dems for congress. Both NH house seats could be won plus the PA gerrymander may not save republicans in Eastern PA. Not to mention the several seats in FL, AZ, CO, NV where Romney runs better.

[California8429]

He'll be able to compete well in the rust belt but will probably lose the SW.

[LastVoter]

He'll be able to compete well in the rust belt but will probably lose the SW.

Virginia would be an Obama stronghold, Santorum is just too socially conservative.

Virginia, Arizona or Wisconsin decide the election. This could be interesting if it's close(but I don't think Obama would perform less than 51% against Santorum).

[Ljube]

Rick Santorum has big problems. He is an authoritarian populist, which will play well in most of the South -- in places that President Obama did badly in in 2008.

Santorum is a compassionate conservative and big government populist. He is like socially conservative Hillary Clinton.

His defeat in Pennsylvania in 2006 suggests that Pennsylvanians know something about him that you don't know. Rick Santorum  has stronger ties to George W. Bush than does any other R candidate for President at any time since the 2012 campaign began -- and that includes such people who have since dropped out (Palin, Perry, Bachmann, Cain, Huntsman, Trump) as an enforcer in the Senate. Dubya has yet to be 'rehabilitated'

Nobody remembers his tenure in the Senate and it won’t be relevant. Why would ties to George W. Bush be relevant? They are only relevant to those who still have disdain for George W. Bush and those people are not Santorum’s constituency.

Recent polls suggest that Rick Santorum would fare badly in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.  He is behind in Missouri and North Carolina, if within the margin of error.

I am not saying Santorum will win Florida, Pennsylvania or Virginia. Are you saying Obama will win North Carolina and Missouri?

That's how things seem to be at the moment. That's while I know nothing about many of the states that President Obama lost in 2008. I really don't know how well Rick Santorum would do in the Clinton-but-not-Obama states or the Plains states.

Very well. Certainly better than McCain. Unlike Obama, he can connect with those voters.

[pbrower2a]

Obama will improve on his 2008 results if Santorum is his opponent.

Can't believe Santorum isn't seen as a straight clown by Republicans.

People with no sense of humor, I have found, fail to recognize fools. 

[Reaganfan]

He'll be able to compete well in the rust belt but will probably lose the SW.

Virginia would be an Obama stronghold, Santorum is just too socially conservative.

Virginia, Arizona or Wisconsin decide the election. This could be interesting if it's close(but I don't think Obama would perform less than 51% against Santorum).

The argument that so and so is "too liberal" or "too conservative" is insane. If someone as right-wing as Reagan can win 49 out of 50 states and someone as left-wing as Obama can win Indiana and North Carolina, Santorum can easily win Obama states.

My gut tells me we would see a very different electoral map.

[LastVoter]

He'll be able to compete well in the rust belt but will probably lose the SW.

Virginia would be an Obama stronghold, Santorum is just too socially conservative.

Virginia, Arizona or Wisconsin decide the election. This could be interesting if it's close(but I don't think Obama would perform less than 51% against Santorum).

The argument that so and so is "too liberal" or "too conservative" is insane. If someone as right-wing as Reagan can win 49 out of 50 states and someone as left-wing as Obama can win Indiana and North Carolina, Santorum can easily win Obama states.

My gut tells me we would see a very different electoral map.

I am not saying Santorum won't win(OK I am, but that's besides the point). What my point was that we would have a weird state that would be a 270th EV(AZ, VA or WI).