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Author Topic: Maine Prediction Thread  (Read 1432 times)
Torie
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« Reply #25 on: February 10, 2012, 07:03:54 pm »
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Quote from: PaulandSantorum2012 on February 10, 2012, 06:54:16 pm
Quote from: Torie on February 10, 2012, 06:52:21 pm
Romney - 100
Paul - 0
Santorum - 0
Gingrich - 0

Don't think this will be the result. Sarcasm dully noted.

It kind of reflects my opinion of predicting caucus results, particularly if there are not some reliable polls out there. It is sort of like predicting what kind of trouble I will successfully find two weeks hence. Smiley
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shua
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« Reply #26 on: February 10, 2012, 08:44:57 pm »
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Paul - 38
Romney - 37
Santorum - 15
Gingrich - 8
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"Those who begin coercive elimination of dissent soon find themselves exterminating dissenters. Compulsory unification of opinion achieves only the unanimity of the graveyard. . . But freedom to differ is not limited to things that do not matter much. That would be a mere shadow of freedom. The test of its substance is the right to differ as to things that touch the heart of the existing order."
- Justice Robert Jackson WV SBE v Barnette

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Inks.LWC
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« Reply #27 on: February 10, 2012, 09:31:14 pm »
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Momentum means less especially in Maine because it's a week-long primary process.
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Ѕenator Αverroës
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« Reply #28 on: February 10, 2012, 10:52:39 pm »
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42% Paul
37% Mittens
13% Santorum
8% Gingrich
 
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Ernest
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« Reply #29 on: February 10, 2012, 10:56:28 pm »
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Quote from: Yeahsayyeah on February 10, 2012, 05:51:51 pm
Maybe Romney will surprise us all...

Romney 38%
Paul 32%
Santorum 21%
Gingrich 9%


If Santorum gets into the 20% territory, Paul wins, not Romney.

I'm going to go with:

Romney:38%
Paul:37%
Santorum:15%
Gingrich: 10%

If all the caucuses were happening tomorrow, I think Paul would win it because of Romney support that would shift to Santorum:

Paul: 37%
Romney: 36%
Santorum:18%
Gingrich: 9%

Not much of a shift, but some of the people who caucused for Romney as the anti-Paul would likely have caucused for Santorum had they known how well he was gonna do last Tuesday.
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« Reply #30 on: February 11, 2012, 01:01:10 am »
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Romney 38%
Paul 34%
Santorum 17%
Gingrich 9%
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #31 on: February 11, 2012, 07:01:01 am »
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40% Romney
32% Paul
15% Santorum
13% Gingrich
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« Reply #32 on: February 11, 2012, 07:11:16 am »
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Gingrich 52
Paul 20
Romney 18
Perry 7
Santorum 2
Cain 1
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« Reply #33 on: February 11, 2012, 08:10:30 am »
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Quote from: © young Bo Tweed on February 11, 2012, 07:11:16 am
Gingrich 52
Paul 20
Romney 18
Perry 7
Santorum 2
Cain 1

I'd support those results.
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JulioMadrid
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« Reply #34 on: February 11, 2012, 09:56:29 am »
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Paul 39%
Romney 35%
Santorum 19%
Gingrich 7%
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S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13
Korwinist
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« Reply #35 on: February 11, 2012, 10:04:04 am »
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Non-rounded prediction:

Paul: 43%
Romney: 36%
Santorum: 13%
Gingrich: 8%
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« Reply #36 on: February 11, 2012, 11:26:21 am »
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Paul 39
Romney 34
Santorum 18
Newt 8
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Volrath50
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« Reply #37 on: February 11, 2012, 01:28:20 pm »
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I'm going to predict a Santorum win, so that I look particularly awesome in the event he pulls off a huge upset again.

Santorum 32
Paul 30
Romney 28
Gingrich 10
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oakvale
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« Reply #38 on: February 11, 2012, 01:33:39 pm »
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I don't know or really care (it's Maine, come on), but I'll just take a wild guess.

Romney: 38%
Paul: 34%
Santorum: 20%
Gingrich: 6%
Staph infection: 2%
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« Reply #39 on: February 11, 2012, 03:32:11 pm »
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Why's there so much Maine hate?
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Volrath50
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« Reply #40 on: February 11, 2012, 03:52:50 pm »
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Quote from: Eraserhead on February 11, 2012, 03:32:11 pm
Why's there so much Maine hate?

Maine's one of my favorite states, because it reminds me of New Brunswick, where my family is from. :-/
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When I sharpen my flashing sword and my hand grasps it in judgment, I will take vengeance on my adversaries and repay those who hate me.
shua
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« Reply #41 on: February 11, 2012, 03:58:27 pm »
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Quote from: Eraserhead on February 11, 2012, 03:32:11 pm
Why's there so much Maine hate?
No polls, probably.
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"Those who begin coercive elimination of dissent soon find themselves exterminating dissenters. Compulsory unification of opinion achieves only the unanimity of the graveyard. . . But freedom to differ is not limited to things that do not matter much. That would be a mere shadow of freedom. The test of its substance is the right to differ as to things that touch the heart of the existing order."
- Justice Robert Jackson WV SBE v Barnette

http://tinyurl.com/bx359q5
Beet
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« Reply #42 on: February 11, 2012, 04:44:00 pm »
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I think it's going to be close

Romney 35
Paul 33
Santorum 24
Gingrich 6
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Quote from: krazen1211 on January 17, 2013, 06:26:56 pm
15 rounds for the elites but 7 for the people. Interesting.

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Beet
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« Reply #43 on: February 11, 2012, 04:49:45 pm »
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I could be way underestimating Paul. It all depends on how representative Androscoggin county is of the state-wide shift.
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Quote from: krazen1211 on January 17, 2013, 06:26:56 pm
15 rounds for the elites but 7 for the people. Interesting.

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Senator Snowstalker
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« Reply #44 on: February 11, 2012, 04:52:04 pm »
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1. Paul/Romney
2. Romney/Paul
3. Santorum
4. Gingrich
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Quote from: 31: A New Bushie on April 30, 2013, 01:33:54 pm
I wouldn't touch the Carnival cruise ships with a 10 foot pole.  Too many things have gone wrong in the last ~6 months for me to even consider it anymore.
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« Reply #45 on: February 11, 2012, 05:19:26 pm »
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Quote from: Snowstalker on February 11, 2012, 04:52:04 pm
1. Paul/Romney
2. Romney/Paul
3. Santorum
4. Gingrich

Well aren't you adventurous
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oakvale
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« Reply #46 on: February 11, 2012, 06:25:03 pm »
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Quote from: Gingrich Agonistes on February 11, 2012, 01:33:39 pm
I don't know or really care (it's Maine, come on), but I'll just take a wild guess.

Romney: 38%
Paul: 34%
Santorum: 20%
Gingrich: 6%
Staph infection: 2%

Heh, I overestimated the staph infection and slightly underestimated Paul, but I'm pretty happy with this.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #47 on: February 11, 2012, 07:03:45 pm »
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Quote from: Bacontard on February 10, 2012, 05:39:30 pm
I'm not going to bother with numbers, but I have a feeling Paul will disappoint.
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Senator Snowstalker
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« Reply #48 on: February 12, 2012, 12:52:00 am »
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Quote from: Snowstalker on February 11, 2012, 04:52:04 pm
1. Paul/Romney
2. Romney/Paul
3. Santorum
4. Gingrich

I may or may not have been right!
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Quote from: 31: A New Bushie on April 30, 2013, 01:33:54 pm
I wouldn't touch the Carnival cruise ships with a 10 foot pole.  Too many things have gone wrong in the last ~6 months for me to even consider it anymore.
TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #49 on: February 13, 2012, 12:19:47 pm »
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Quote from: Torie on February 10, 2012, 06:52:21 pm
Romney - 100
Paul - 0
Santorum - 0
Gingrich - 0

In terms of earned media and the "takeaway", this ends up being the closest answer.
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