PPP: Santorum beating Romney in Michigan

[Wisconsin+17]

This is insane beautiful glorious.

[Lief 🗽]

Mittens is no Rick Lazio. Paladino won because NY Republicans didn't want to nominate some washed-out down-stater whose last major accomplishment was losing to Hillary Clinton. Paladino could not gave won the primary without unusually high enthusiasm upstate + low enthusiasm downstate. Santorum can't take advantage of the regional divide in the same way.

That sounds like what happened in Colorado. Mitt areas have low turn-out, Santorum/Gingrich areas have high turnout.

[Vote UKIP!]

Mittens is no Rick Lazio. Paladino won because NY Republicans didn't want to nominate some washed-out down-stater whose last major accomplishment was losing to Hillary Clinton. Paladino could not gave won the primary without unusually high enthusiasm upstate + low enthusiasm downstate. Santorum can't take advantage of the regional divide in the same way.

That sounds like what happened in Colorado. Mitt areas have low turn-out, Santorum/Gingrich areas have high turnout.

I would be scared if I were in Mitt's camp right now. If you don't have your party, how do you expect to win the general?

[Politico]

Let him try. The narrative now is Mitt uses the negative attacks and the base is turned off. So for every negative ad, expect ten commentaries about how it's Mitt's only card to play and how it is actually driving his own negatives up.

Santorum is back in the business of selling bridges to nowhere. It meant massive GOP losses in 2006 and now it means massive GOP losses in 2012. At this point in American history, Santorum's temperament when it comes to social issues is an electoral loser at the national level. That was the lesson following the Terri Schiavo imbroglio. No thank you to handing Obama an even bigger mandate in 2013 than the one he had in 2009. America cannot afford four more years of Big Government whether it is Obama's liberalism or Santorum's conservatism.

[Vote UKIP!]

Let him try. The narrative now is Mitt uses the negative attacks and the base is turned off. So for every negative ad, expect ten commentaries about how it's Mitt's only card to play and how it is actually driving his own negatives up.

Santorum is back in the business of selling bridges to nowhere. It meant massive GOP losses in 2006 and now it means massive GOP losses in 2012. At this point in American history, Santorum's temperament when it comes to social issues is an electoral loser at the national level. That was the lesson following the Terri Schiavo imbroglio. No thank you to handing Obama an even bigger mandate in 2013 than the one he had in 2009. America cannot afford four more years of Big Government whether it is Obama's liberalism or Santorum's conservatism.

Put down the talking points...

Rick is a nice guy compared to Newt. The latter provided most the ammunition for his own pummeling. (Did I just mixed my metaphors)

The blowback from Mitt hiking Rick would be far more dangerous for Mitt, whose negatives are already spiking.

[pbrower2a]

I don't see how Mitt Romney can lose the Michigan primary and have a good chance at the nomination.

At this point I can see a brokered convention and an electoral disaster for the Republican nominee -- whoever -- in November. 

[hotpprs]

No, Michigan is not the end. CA is the end.

well, if Romney gets swept out of April 22 (NY and CT) then we can start imagining a bowout.  but all this is very very hypothetical.

New York voters, have become so liberal to moderate, I do not see that happening even if Santorum becomes the front runner by then. The same for CT. We only care about the next restaurant we are going to go to, and taxes. Who cares about social issues? Why would we want to vote for Santorum? Romney can sleep well the night of April 21st. No worries.

[Politico]

Let him try. The narrative now is Mitt uses the negative attacks and the base is turned off. So for every negative ad, expect ten commentaries about how it's Mitt's only card to play and how it is actually driving his own negatives up.

Santorum is back in the business of selling bridges to nowhere. It meant massive GOP losses in 2006 and now it means massive GOP losses in 2012. At this point in American history, Santorum's temperament when it comes to social issues is an electoral loser at the national level. That was the lesson following the Terri Schiavo imbroglio. No thank you to handing Obama an even bigger mandate in 2013 than the one he had in 2009. America cannot afford four more years of Big Government whether it is Obama's liberalism or Santorum's conservatism.

Put down the talking points...

Rick is a nice guy compared to Newt. The latter provided most the ammunition for his own pummeling. (Did I just mixed my metaphors)

The blowback from Mitt hiking Rick would be far more dangerous for Mitt, whose negatives are already spiking.

Santorum will be destroyed by the Super PACs only if necessary. Santorum would be wise to simply play nice, keep Gingrich down, and maybe he'll be Vice President or a Cabinet member if he does so.

[Paleobrazilian]

I do think people are overexciting with Rickmentum for now. Romney will have plenty of time to flood Arizona and Michigan with ads, and, in fact, there's a clear line he can take to do this: the same Ron Paul has already used.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Aohgrn1peA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSVi45vfA6o

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Romney should also try to experiement with positive ads about himself, particularly concerning the auto industry and how he was ahead of curve on saving them, rather than calling for their destruction, which is what team Obama will try to claim in the fall. Also, he can argue that his economic plan is better than Santorum's by virture of it's scope and that his experience at Bain , which he should get very detailed about, connecting a specific company that failed to a specific gov't related cause, makes him more suited to strengthen manufacturing than Santorum.


He should also re-outsource all the negative ads to the PAC, and only mention Santorum in his adds for the purpose of contrasting on economic plans or other issues, or to respond to an attack from Rick.

[Torie]

I hope Paul wins the hipster precincts in Brooklyn.

Paul carries Williamsburg in a landslide!

(Actually I can't imagine many of the hipsters there being registered Republicans so...)

Only the Orthodox Jews are. Of all the places I mapped in redistricting, Williamsburg was the most interesting. One precinct was GOP and white (Orthodox Jew), the next precinct 80% Hispanic, the next precinct 60% black, and the next precinct white and 85% Obama (hipster).  I have never seen anything like it before. Every block is a whole new ball of wax from the one before.