PPP: Santorum beating Romney in Michigan

[© tweed]

Wait until Santorum runs up insane margins on Staten Island and Upstate...

Staten Island absolutely not.  $ > guidos.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Where's politico?

[Eraserhead]

Wait until Santorum runs up insane margins on Staten Island and Upstate...

He could do well upstate. He'd get squashed on SI.

[Lief 🗽]

I hope Paul wins the hipster precincts in Brooklyn.

[Eraserhead]

I hope Paul wins the hipster precincts in Brooklyn.

Paul carries Williamsburg in a landslide!

(Actually I can't imagine many of the hipsters there being registered Republicans so...)

[Keystone Phil]

Wait until Santorum runs up insane margins on Staten Island and Upstate...

Staten Island absolutely not.  $ > guidos.

Ah, I didn't think the wealth outweighed the Italians. I also forgot about the party machine...

[Volrath50]

Where's politico?

His programming is not designed to deal with something like this. He crashed, and the Romney campaign has been working furiously to reboot him ASAP.

[Eraserhead]

How vicious do you people think Romney will get in MI?

He is going to be desperate for a hardy win in a competitive state, especially if he loses to Ron Paul (lol) tomorrow.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

OH sh**t

Sadly, Moneybags Mitt will turn it around after some ads.

[LastVoter]

I'm seriously contemplating buying Santorum to win the nomination at this point.

Should have b ought him when those MN results started coming in(or even earlier when PPP polled Santorum winning MN).

[TomC]

yeah it's nowhere near the ballgame.  it would just mean that we may have to drop the term 'frontrunner' from his name.  he has firewalls in AZ on the 28th and MA/VT/VA on 3/6.

I wouldn't be completely shocked if something weird happened in VT but I agree otherwise.

Also, I have a very hard time seeing Santorum compete with Romney in places like New York and California no matter what happens in MI.

Sure, but Hillary Clinton won Cal and NY and those two state are less delegate rich for the GOP.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Paladino won in NY. Eastern Cali will have more clout with only Republicans. Santorum will be able to compete in both of them.

[Averroës Nix]

Mittens is no Rick Lazio. Paladino won because NY Republicans didn't want to nominate some washed-out down-stater whose last major accomplishment was losing to Hillary Clinton. Paladino could not gave won the primary without unusually high enthusiasm upstate + low enthusiasm downstate. Santorum can't take advantage of the regional divide in the same way.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Congrats Phil.

Santorum needs to go all shock 'n' awe. How's mittens doing in WA? 

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Mittens is no Rick Lazio. Paladino won because NY Republicans didn't want to nominate some washed-out down-stater whose last major accomplishment was losing to Hillary Clinton. Paladino could not gave won the primary without unusually high enthusiasm upstate + low enthusiasm downstate. Santorum can't take advantage of the regional divide in the same way.

Why not?  I've seen no evidence that anyone other than Politico is all that enthused about Romney.

[Averroës Nix]

Mittens is no Rick Lazio. Paladino won because NY Republicans didn't want to nominate some washed-out down-stater whose last major accomplishment was losing to Hillary Clinton. Paladino could not gave won the primary without unusually high enthusiasm upstate + low enthusiasm downstate. Santorum can't take advantage of the regional divide in the same way.

Why not?  I've seen no evidence that anyone other than Politico is all that enthused about Romney.

Lazio was way worse, but I'll re-state what I'm asserting in a more careful way: If it's possible for Santorum to win NY, his victory will not be the product of the same factors that led to Paladino's upset.

[tpfkaw]

Didn't Lazio literally not campaign anywhere except Long Island?

[Keystone Phil]

This is insane.

[Mr. Morden]

Santorum only down by 2 in CA according to PPP!

Wait, where do you see that?  I just checked their Twitter feed, and don't see that anywhere.  And I don't think they're even polling California at the moment.  They're doing a national poll, so I guess they might have a California subsample from that, but it would have a huge MoE.

[Averroës Nix]

Didn't Lazio literally not campaign anywhere except Long Island?

Yes, he campaigned Coakley-style, expecting that the machine would hand him the primary on a silver platter.

[greenforest32]

This is insane beautiful.

[RI]

Santorum only down by 2 in CA according to PPP!

Wait, where do you see that?  I just checked their Twitter feed, and don't see that anywhere.  And I don't think they're even polling California at the moment.  They're doing a national poll, so I guess they might have a California subsample from that, but it would have a huge MoE.

I don't see it either.

[Keystone Phil]

Santorum only down by 2 in CA according to PPP!

Wait, where do you see that?  I just checked their Twitter feed, and don't see that anywhere.  And I don't think they're even polling California at the moment.  They're doing a national poll, so I guess they might have a California subsample from that, but it would have a huge MoE.

A friend of mine sent me the result right after I told him about the MI poll. He didn't specify the poll though. It turns out it's a Survey USA poll.

[RI]

Ok, I found it. Will enter soon.

[RI]

There is now a thread about the CA poll on the Pres Prim Polls board.