PPP: Santorum beating Romney in Michigan

[Averroës Nix]

Mittens is no Rick Lazio. Paladino won because NY Republicans didn't want to nominate some washed-out down-stater whose last major accomplishment was losing to Hillary Clinton. Paladino could not gave won the primary without unusually high enthusiasm upstate + low enthusiasm downstate. Santorum can't take advantage of the regional divide in the same way.

[Averroës Nix]

Mittens is no Rick Lazio. Paladino won because NY Republicans didn't want to nominate some washed-out down-stater whose last major accomplishment was losing to Hillary Clinton. Paladino could not gave won the primary without unusually high enthusiasm upstate + low enthusiasm downstate. Santorum can't take advantage of the regional divide in the same way.

Why not?  I've seen no evidence that anyone other than Politico is all that enthused about Romney.

Lazio was way worse, but I'll re-state what I'm asserting in a more careful way: If it's possible for Santorum to win NY, his victory will not be the product of the same factors that led to Paladino's upset.

[Averroës Nix]

Didn't Lazio literally not campaign anywhere except Long Island?

Yes, he campaigned Coakley-style, expecting that the machine would hand him the primary on a silver platter.