McCarthy vs. Ackerman in NY

[Progressive]

If the rumors are true, this will be the primary? What do you think happens?

[freepcrusher]

i've heard Ackerman is planning on retire. He's been in office for nearly thirty years so the choice is to get into an unnecessary primary battle against McCarthy or run in a district where he risks getting primaried by an Asian.

[nkpatel1279]

Ackerman is going to win due to the fact the new NY-4 will be a North Hempstead centric District. Most of North Hempstead is located in Ackerman district(NY-5). Ackerman has 30 year seniority, has support from AIPAC. McCarthy was a Republican before she was elected to Congess in 1996, she became a Democrat because of the gun control issue. The Gingrich Congress introduce legislation and the Republican who preceded McCarthy voted to repeal the assault weapons ban couple of years after the LIRR massacre. McCarthy could move to the NY-3 and run against King.

[ag]

I, actually, lived on LI around the time that McCarthy was forced into politics and I remember the story well. But I am not sure, how easy it would be to play off her ancient Republicanism. She was a fairly apolitical woman, cast into politics after the murder of her husband by a maniac on LIRR. You bring up her origins as a Dem, you also bring up the memory of that story, which would remind people why she was elected in the first place. She has been a consistent suburban Democrat ever since. Yes, she's been a few terms less in Congress than Ackerman (16 vs. 29 years), but it is not negligible seniority as it is. She may be only a couple of years younger, but women live longer: her life expectancy should be taken into account when thinking seniority.

The North Hempstead thing is more serious, though. But Ackerman is an NYC, Queens guy; McCarthy is the proper Long Islander. True, North Shore is North Shore, but is there any reason to believe Ackerman is a better overall fit there than McCarthy?  I would want to see the map first.