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|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election Predictions (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  2012 Senatorial Prediction
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Latest 2012 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
KS21 (I-KS)MapProfile 11-06 37 D +3 7 (-3) 24 (+3) 2 (0) 0
Mister Twister (G-JPN)MapProfile 11-05 1 D +1 9 (-1) 22 (+1) 2 (0) 0
Ernest (I-SC)MapProfile 11-06 22 D +1 9 (-1) 22 (+1) 2 (0) 0
Political Lefty (D-CA)MapProfile 11-06 1 D +1 9 (-1) 22 (+1) 2 (0) 0
blackflamecandl (I-VA)Map 11-03 1 D +2 8 (-2) 23 (+2) 2 (0) 0
(D-WI) (D-WI)MapProfile 11-04 14 D +3 7 (-3) 24 (+3) 2 (0) 0
ClarkR (D-IL)Map 11-05 6 D +2 8 (-2) 23 (+2) 2 (0) 0
Tidus (D-DEU)MapProfile 11-05 4 D +2 8 (-2) 23 (+2) 2 (0) 0
liberal96 (D-NY)MapProfile 11-05 2 D +3 7 (-3) 24 (+3) 2 (0) 0
MilesC56 (D-LA)MapProfile 11-06 34 D +1 9 (-1) 22 (+1) 2 (0) 0
Latest 2012 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
AntonioV (D-FRA)MapProfile 11-06 11 Even 10 (0) 21 (0) 2 (0) 0
adracman42 (D-CT)MapProfile 11-06 12 Even 10 (0) 21 (0) 2 (0) 0
hashemite (I-ON)MapProfile 11-06 18 D +1 9 (-1) 22 (+1) 2 (0) 0
jdb (D-OH)MapProfile 11-06 7 D +1 9 (-1) 22 (+1) 2 (0) 0
mondale84 (D-NJ)MapProfile 11-06 6 D +1 9 (-1) 22 (+1) 2 (0) 0
cp (G-QC)MapProfile 11-06 1 D +3 7 (-3) 24 (+3) 2 (0) 0
DantheRoman (I-MA)MapProfile 11-06 1 Even 10 (0) 21 (0) 2 (0) 0
Illinois Dem (D-IL)Map 11-06 3 D +1 9 (-1) 22 (+1) 2 (0) 0
cmbeattie (R-OK)MapProfile 11-06 8 R +2 12 (+2) 19 (-2) 2 (0) 0
SouthernLiberal (--GA)Map 11-06 4 D +2 8 (-2) 23 (+2) 2 (0) 0
Latest 2012 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
nkpolitics1279 (D-MA)
by nkpolitics1279 on 2012-12-25 @ 12:35:34
MapProfile 09-29 27 I +1 10 (0) 21 (-1) 2 (+1) 17
Anton Kreitzer (R-AUS)
by solopop on 2012-11-15 @ 08:13:47
MapProfile 08-26 1 R +3 13 (+3) 18 (-3) 2 (0) 1
dnul222 (D-MN)
by dnul222 on 2012-11-12 @ 17:28:26
Map 11-03 8 Even 10 (0) 21 (0) 2 (0) 2
Liberalrocks (D-CA)
by Liberalrocks on 2012-11-10 @ 17:41:54
MapProfile 11-06 48 D +3 7 (-3) 24 (+3) 2 (0) 4
Atheist2006 (D-OK)
by Atheist2006 on 2012-11-10 @ 16:54:59
MapProfile 11-06 3 D +2 8 (-2) 23 (+2) 2 (0) 2
KS21 (I-KS)
by KS21 on 2012-11-06 @ 07:45:57
MapProfile 11-05 36 D +2 8 (-2) 23 (+2) 2 (0) 3
MilesC56 (D-LA)
by MilesC56 on 2012-11-05 @ 03:10:49
MapProfile 11-04 33 D +1 9 (-1) 22 (+1) 2 (0) 1
DennisW (D-VA)
by DennisW on 2012-11-02 @ 22:53:34
Map 10-09 1 D +2 7 (-3) 24 (+2) 2 (+1) 1
wingindy (D-IN)
by wingindy on 2012-11-02 @ 11:27:13
Map 04-29 1 D +1 9 (-1) 22 (+1) 2 (0) 6
MilesC56 (D-LA)
by KS21 on 2012-10-30 @ 17:48:47
MapProfile 10-29 30 D +5 5 (-5) 26 (+5) 2 (0) 3
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2012 Senatorial Prediction  (Read 2313 times)
Dave Leip
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« on: February 12, 2012, 03:16:19 pm »

The 2012 Senatorial Predictions are now active.
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Odysseus
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« Reply #1 on: February 12, 2012, 03:32:37 pm »
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Thanks Dave! Though I've noticed that the "Predicted Senate Control" only has the current seats and doesn't display the total numbers for the Senate.
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Antonio V
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E: -6.45, S: -4.87

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« Reply #2 on: February 12, 2012, 04:22:26 pm »
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Noticed it too.

Anyways, here is my first take, loking principally at pundit rankings. I'm willingfully overestimating uncertainty, so that extreme scenarioes aren't ruled out too early.





All the tossups going D would result in an unchanged 53/47 dem majority. All the tossups going R would result in republicans taking over with 57 seats.
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Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
Miles
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« Reply #3 on: February 12, 2012, 07:12:37 pm »
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Thanks.

It says that Montana is an open seat though.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #4 on: February 12, 2012, 09:28:49 pm »

Thanks Dave! Though I've noticed that the "Predicted Senate Control" only has the current seats and doesn't display the total numbers for the Senate.

Thanks - I needed up update the senate database for 2012 - now updated to include control prediction data.

Enjoy,
Dave
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #5 on: February 12, 2012, 09:33:53 pm »

Thanks.

It says that Montana is an open seat though.

Thanks - That was an error - don't know how it snuck in, but now corrected.
Enjoy,
Dave
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thrillr1111
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« Reply #6 on: June 24, 2012, 08:54:19 pm »
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nd -dem
fl-dem
in-rep
tx-rep
ca-dem
mn-dem
mo-dem
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