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Latest 2012 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
KS21 (I-KS)MapProfile 11-06 37 D +3 7 (-3) 24 (+3) 2 (0) 0
Mister Twister (G-JPN)MapProfile 11-05 1 D +1 9 (-1) 22 (+1) 2 (0) 0
Ernest (I-SC)MapProfile 11-06 22 D +1 9 (-1) 22 (+1) 2 (0) 0
Political Lefty (D-CA)MapProfile 11-06 1 D +1 9 (-1) 22 (+1) 2 (0) 0
blackflamecandl (I-VA)Map 11-03 1 D +2 8 (-2) 23 (+2) 2 (0) 0
(D-WI) (D-WI)MapProfile 11-04 14 D +3 7 (-3) 24 (+3) 2 (0) 0
ClarkR (D-IL)Map 11-05 6 D +2 8 (-2) 23 (+2) 2 (0) 0
Tidus (D-DEU)MapProfile 11-05 4 D +2 8 (-2) 23 (+2) 2 (0) 0
liberal96 (D-NY)MapProfile 11-05 2 D +3 7 (-3) 24 (+3) 2 (0) 0
MilesC56 (D-LA)MapProfile 11-06 34 D +1 9 (-1) 22 (+1) 2 (0) 0
Latest 2012 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
AntonioV (D-FRA)MapProfile 11-06 11 Even 10 (0) 21 (0) 2 (0) 0
adracman42 (D-CT)MapProfile 11-06 12 Even 10 (0) 21 (0) 2 (0) 0
hashemite (I-ON)MapProfile 11-06 18 D +1 9 (-1) 22 (+1) 2 (0) 0
jdb (D-OH)MapProfile 11-06 7 D +1 9 (-1) 22 (+1) 2 (0) 0
mondale84 (D-NJ)MapProfile 11-06 6 D +1 9 (-1) 22 (+1) 2 (0) 0
cp (G-QC)MapProfile 11-06 1 D +3 7 (-3) 24 (+3) 2 (0) 0
DantheRoman (I-MA)MapProfile 11-06 1 Even 10 (0) 21 (0) 2 (0) 0
Illinois Dem (D-IL)Map 11-06 3 D +1 9 (-1) 22 (+1) 2 (0) 0
cmbeattie (R-OK)MapProfile 11-06 8 R +2 12 (+2) 19 (-2) 2 (0) 0
SouthernLiberal (--GA)Map 11-06 4 D +2 8 (-2) 23 (+2) 2 (0) 0
Latest 2012 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
nkpolitics1279 (D-MA)
by nkpolitics1279 on 2012-12-25 @ 12:35:34
MapProfile 09-29 27 I +1 10 (0) 21 (-1) 2 (+1) 17
Anton Kreitzer (R-AUS)
by solopop on 2012-11-15 @ 08:13:47
MapProfile 08-26 1 R +3 13 (+3) 18 (-3) 2 (0) 1
dnul222 (D-MN)
by dnul222 on 2012-11-12 @ 17:28:26
Map 11-03 8 Even 10 (0) 21 (0) 2 (0) 2
Liberalrocks (D-CA)
by Liberalrocks on 2012-11-10 @ 17:41:54
MapProfile 11-06 48 D +3 7 (-3) 24 (+3) 2 (0) 4
Atheist2006 (D-OK)
by Atheist2006 on 2012-11-10 @ 16:54:59
MapProfile 11-06 3 D +2 8 (-2) 23 (+2) 2 (0) 2
KS21 (I-KS)
by KS21 on 2012-11-06 @ 07:45:57
MapProfile 11-05 36 D +2 8 (-2) 23 (+2) 2 (0) 3
MilesC56 (D-LA)
by MilesC56 on 2012-11-05 @ 03:10:49
MapProfile 11-04 33 D +1 9 (-1) 22 (+1) 2 (0) 1
DennisW (D-VA)
by DennisW on 2012-11-02 @ 22:53:34
Map 10-09 1 D +2 7 (-3) 24 (+2) 2 (+1) 1
wingindy (D-IN)
by wingindy on 2012-11-02 @ 11:27:13
Map 04-29 1 D +1 9 (-1) 22 (+1) 2 (0) 6
MilesC56 (D-LA)
by KS21 on 2012-10-30 @ 17:48:47
MapProfile 10-29 30 D +5 5 (-5) 26 (+5) 2 (0) 3
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)  (Read 17424 times)
True Federalist
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« Reply #25 on: June 09, 2012, 11:25:44 pm »
Ignore

Florida changed from 40% R to 50% R since my last post.

As of 10 June these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the total predictions) to change.

Alphabetical Order:
Colorado: 12 changes (-1) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Florida: 1 change (+6) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Missouri: 20 changes (+1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 9 changes (+1) to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 20 changes (+2) to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 10 changes (+1) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 5 changes (+1) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 17 changes (NC) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 6 changes (-2) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Virginia: 5 changes (-2) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
Florida: 1 change to go from 50% R to 40% R
North Dakota: 5 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Virginia: 5 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 6 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
New Hampshire: 9 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Nevada: 10 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Colorado: 12 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Ohio: 17 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
Missouri: 20 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Mexico: 20 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D

Yeah!  I managed to crack Dave's code and get access to the CD results for Maine and Nebraska

Nebraska 1: 6 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R.
Nebraska 2: 16 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R.
« Last Edit: June 10, 2012, 12:47:30 pm by True Federalist »Logged

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Hutto(D/Working Families) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
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TBD: Lex 1 School Board
Yes: Am. 1 (allow charity raffles)
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« Reply #26 on: June 11, 2012, 11:10:30 pm »
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As of 12 June these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the total predictions) to change.

Alphabetical Order:
Colorado: 17 changes (+5) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Florida: 3 changes (+2) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Missouri: 23 changes (+3) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 5 changes (+11) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Nebraska 2: 20 changes (+4) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 9 changes (NC) to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 21 changes (+1) to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 12 changes (+2) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 7 changes (+2) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 17 changes (NC) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 5 changes (-1) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Virginia: 4 changes (-1) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
Florida: 3 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Virginia: 4 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
Nebraska 1: 5 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
South Carolina: 5 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
North Dakota: 7 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
New Hampshire: 9 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Nevada: 12 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Colorado: 17 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Ohio: 17 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
Nebraska 2: 20 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Mexico: 21 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D
Missouri: 23 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R

The large number of changes for the predictions of Nebraska 1 make me wonder if I had made a mistake and it was actually Lean R as of the last time I checked, but there is no easy way to go back and recheck that, especially since the change in Nebraska 2 was in the opposite political direction.  Anyway, I am certain it is Lean R now.
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My ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D/Working Families) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
TBD: Lex 1 School Board
Yes: Am. 1 (allow charity raffles)
No: Am. 2 (end election of the Adj. General)
No: Local Sales Tax
Yes: Temp Beer/Wine Permits
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« Reply #27 on: June 12, 2012, 03:00:58 pm »
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Surely Obama will win Ohio with less than 40%... Roll Eyes

Some people really don't think.
http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012/pred.php?fips=39&action=statepred&submit=Go
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« Reply #28 on: June 17, 2012, 09:49:59 am »
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As of 17 June these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the total predictions) to change.

The past 5 days have clearly seen the prediction sentiment tilt in favor of Romney, tho not by a huge amount.

Alphabetical Order:
Florida: 7 changes (+4) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Missouri: 24 changes (+1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 3 changes (-2) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Nebraska 2: 22 changes (+2) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 11 changes (+2) to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 20 changes (-1) to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 12 changes (NC) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 10 changes (+3) to go from Strong R to Lean R
South Carolina: 3 changes (-2) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Virginia: 7 changes (+3) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
Nebraska 1: 3 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
South Carolina: 3 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
Florida: 7 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Virginia: 7 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
North Dakota: 10 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
New Hampshire: 11 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Nevada: 12 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
New Mexico: 20 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nebraska 2: 22 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Missouri: 24 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R


Colorado now requires 27 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D, up 10 from 5 days ago.  This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until either sentiment rebounds to the Democrats or if it keeps trending Republican, until the 64 changes needed to flip the state from 50% D to 40%D narrows to under 5%.

Ohio now requires 25 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D, up 8 from 5 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until either sentiment rebounds to the Democrats or if it keeps trending Republican, until the 29 changes needed to flip the state from 40% D to 30% D narrows to under 5%.
Logged

My ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D/Working Families) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
TBD: Lex 1 School Board
Yes: Am. 1 (allow charity raffles)
No: Am. 2 (end election of the Adj. General)
No: Local Sales Tax
Yes: Temp Beer/Wine Permits
True Federalist
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« Reply #29 on: June 25, 2012, 01:55:58 pm »
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As of 25 June these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the total predictions) to change.

The past 8 days have seen little change in sentiment, but once the Obamacare ruling is released I suspect there may be change, so I decided to go ahead and post an update now.

Alphabetical Order:
Florida: 8 changes (+1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 5 changes (+2) to go from Lean R to Strong R
New Hampshire: 11 changes (+2) to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 21 changes (+1) to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 14 changes (+2) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 13 changes (+2) to go from Strong R to Lean R
South Carolina: 6 changes (+3) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Virginia: 7 changes (+4) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
Nebraska 1: 5 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
South Carolina: 6 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
Florida: 8 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
North Dakota: 11 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Virginia: 11 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Hampshire: 13 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Nevada: 14 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
New Mexico: 21 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D


Missouri now requires 27 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R, up 3 from 8 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until sentiment rebounds to the Democrats.

Nebraska 2 now requires 25 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R, up 3 from 8 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until sentiment rebounds to the Democrats.
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My ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D/Working Families) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
TBD: Lex 1 School Board
Yes: Am. 1 (allow charity raffles)
No: Am. 2 (end election of the Adj. General)
No: Local Sales Tax
Yes: Temp Beer/Wine Permits
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« Reply #30 on: June 26, 2012, 04:56:00 pm »
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It would be nice if there were "Reset all to blank" and "Reset all" buttons for predictions.
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True Federalist
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« Reply #31 on: July 01, 2012, 09:50:43 pm »
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As of 1 July these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the 285 predictions) to change.

The past 6 days have seen little change in sentiment, despite the Obamacare ruling.  Given the paucity of new polling, I suspect that may be the reason and people are generally waiting for data.

Nebraska 2 has returned to the list after being gone 1 time as as Ohio after being gone 2 time.

Alphabetical Order:
Florida: 8 changes (NC) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 1 change (-4) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Nebraska 2: 24 changes (-1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 12 changes (+1) to go from 50% D to 40% D
Nevada: 11 changes (-3) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 14 changes (+1) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 23 changes (-2 or more) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 1 changes (-5) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Virginia: 12 changes (+1) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
Nebraska 1: 1 change to go from Lean R to Strong R
South Carolina: 1 change to go from Lean R to Strong R
Florida: 8 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nevada: 11 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
New Hampshire: 12 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Virginia: 12 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
North Dakota: 14 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 23 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
Nebraska 2: 24 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R


New Mexico now requires 25 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D, up 3 from 6 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until sentiment rebounds to the Republicans.
Logged

My ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D/Working Families) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
TBD: Lex 1 School Board
Yes: Am. 1 (allow charity raffles)
No: Am. 2 (end election of the Adj. General)
No: Local Sales Tax
Yes: Temp Beer/Wine Permits
True Federalist
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« Reply #32 on: July 02, 2012, 09:18:41 pm »
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As of 2 July these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the 285 predictions) to change.

Two changes to the prediction map since yesterday.  Both Nebraska 1 and South Carolina have switched from Lean R to Strong R.  That change is why I'm posting again so soon.  Also New Mexico returns to the list after a brief absence.

Alphabetical Order:
Florida: 7 changes (-1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 2 changes (+3) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 2: 23 changes (-1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 13 changes (+1) to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 24 changes (-1) to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 10 changes (-1) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 15 changes (+1) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 23 changes (NC) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 1 change (+2) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Virginia: 14 changes (+2) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
South Carolina: 1 change to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 1: 2 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Florida: 7 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nevada: 10 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
New Hampshire: 13 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Virginia: 14 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
North Dakota: 15 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 2: 23 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Ohio: 23 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Mexico: 24 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D
Logged

My ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D/Working Families) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
TBD: Lex 1 School Board
Yes: Am. 1 (allow charity raffles)
No: Am. 2 (end election of the Adj. General)
No: Local Sales Tax
Yes: Temp Beer/Wine Permits
True Federalist
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« Reply #33 on: July 17, 2012, 11:51:49 pm »
Ignore

As of 18 July these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 25 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the 497 predictions) to change.

Not much movement in the predictions, but what little there has been has been in favor of Obama overall.

Alphabetical Order:
Florida: 5 changes (-2) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 2 changes (NC) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 2: 24 changes (+1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 13 changes (NC) to go from 50% D to 40% D
Nevada: 5 changes (-5) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 16 changes (+1) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 21 changes (-2) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 1 change (NC) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Virginia: 6 changes (-8) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
South Carolina: 1 change to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 1: 2 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Florida: 5 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nevada: 5 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Virginia: 8 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Hampshire: 13 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
North Dakota: 16 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 21 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
Nebraska 2: 24 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R



New Mexico now requires 28 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D, up 4 from 16 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until sentiment rebounds to the Republicans.
Logged

My ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D/Working Families) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
TBD: Lex 1 School Board
Yes: Am. 1 (allow charity raffles)
No: Am. 2 (end election of the Adj. General)
No: Local Sales Tax
Yes: Temp Beer/Wine Permits
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« Reply #34 on: July 28, 2012, 12:54:06 am »
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As of 18 July these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 25 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the 497 predictions) to change.

Not much movement in the predictions, but what little there has been has been in favor of Obama overall.

Alphabetical Order:
Florida: 5 changes (-2) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 2 changes (NC) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 2: 24 changes (+1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 13 changes (NC) to go from 50% D to 40% D
Nevada: 5 changes (-5) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 16 changes (+1) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 21 changes (-2) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 1 change (NC) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Virginia: 6 changes (-8) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
South Carolina: 1 change to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 1: 2 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Florida: 5 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nevada: 5 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Virginia: 8 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Hampshire: 13 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
North Dakota: 16 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 21 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
Nebraska 2: 24 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R



New Mexico now requires 28 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D, up 4 from 16 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until sentiment rebounds to the Republicans.

Oh yea? Super interesting! What about real votes in November?
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True Federalist
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« Reply #35 on: July 28, 2012, 01:05:33 am »
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Oh yea? Super interesting! What about real votes in November?

They'll be counted in November.  I'll grant that tracking the fluctuations in the predictions is a rather introspective bit of navel gazing, which is why I don't do updates every day.
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My ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D/Working Families) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
TBD: Lex 1 School Board
Yes: Am. 1 (allow charity raffles)
No: Am. 2 (end election of the Adj. General)
No: Local Sales Tax
Yes: Temp Beer/Wine Permits
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« Reply #36 on: August 01, 2012, 07:00:05 pm »
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I think romeny will do good in south,   obama will get california i believe.
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« Reply #37 on: August 01, 2012, 10:50:38 pm »
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As of 1 August these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 26 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the 511 predictions) to change.

New Mexico returns to the list as a result of a significant shift in favor of the Republicans.  North Carolina shows up for the first time.

Alphabetical Order:
Florida: 1 change (-4) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 4 changes (+2) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 2: 24 changes (+1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 13 changes (NC) to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 17 changes (-11) to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 3 changes (-2) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Carolina: 25 changes to go from 40% R to 50% R
North Dakota: 16 changes (NC) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 15 changes (-6) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 1 change (NC) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Virginia: 6 changes (NC) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
Florida: 1 change to go from 50% R to 40% R
South Carolina: 1 change to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nevada: 3 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Nebraska 1: 4 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Virginia: 8 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Hampshire: 13 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Ohio: 151 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
North Dakota: 16 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
New Mexico: 17 changes  to go from Strong D to Lean D
North Carolina: 25 changes to go from 40% R to 50% R



Nebraska 2 now requires 27 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R, up 3 from 16 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until sentiment rebounds to the Democrats.
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Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
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Scott(R) US Sen (special)
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Quinn(R) SC House District 69
TBD: Lex 1 School Board
Yes: Am. 1 (allow charity raffles)
No: Am. 2 (end election of the Adj. General)
No: Local Sales Tax
Yes: Temp Beer/Wine Permits
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Ernest
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« Reply #38 on: October 02, 2012, 01:55:23 pm »
Ignore

It's been two months since I last looked at these.  but most notably, Florida which two months ago had a collective prediction pf 50%R had 30%R yesterday and a 30%D today.  It's not been a good couple of months for Romney.
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My ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D/Working Families) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
TBD: Lex 1 School Board
Yes: Am. 1 (allow charity raffles)
No: Am. 2 (end election of the Adj. General)
No: Local Sales Tax
Yes: Temp Beer/Wine Permits
Dave Leip
leip
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« Reply #39 on: November 13, 2012, 10:45:11 am »

Preliminary scores for the 2012 Presidential Predictions have been posted.
Enjoy,
Dave
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