Victorian State Election 27/11/2010

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Sorry to be beating a dead horse (not trying to just thread bump) but am updating some maps and popping them in the gallery. I thought I should include them here for completeness sake.

2CP Results by Legislative Assembly District




2CP Swing by Legislative Assembly District


Brunswick (inner-city, immediately North of the CBD) was the only seat that swung to The Greens.

There were three inner-city seats (where 2PP was Labor vs Greens) where there was a swing to Labor (predominantly due to the Liberal Party's preferencing decision) - Melbourne, Richmond and Northcote. In Murray Valley (on the Northern state border with NSW), there was a slight 2PP swing to Labor probably due to retiring Nationals MP Ken Jasper (first elected in 1976 and winning ten consecutive elections).

The swing to the National Party in Lowan (Western state border with South Australia) was precisely 0%. In 2006, the 2PP in Bendigo West was Labor vs Liberal, in 2010 it was Labor vs National. There was a swing against Labor so the seat is shaded as a swing to the Nationals, however the scale of the swing is shown as the swing to the Coalition (as opposed to the swing from the 0% 2PP the Nationals received last election - the swing is based on the National 2PP this election and the Liberal 2PP last election). The swing in Gippsland East is calculated the same way (the 2CP last election was Independent vs Liberal, this election was National vs Independent, the swing is calculated as Coalition vs Independent in both years).



Percentage Received by Party Obtaining the Highest Primary Vote - Legislative Assembly


Although appearing in the Key, The Greens did not receive a plurality of votes in any District.



Percentage Received by Party Obtaining the Highest Primary Vote - Legislative Council


The Liberals and Nationals ran joint tickets in the Legislative Council Regions of Eastern Victoria, Northern Victoria and Western Victoria, so the shading is blue in all Districts in which the Coalition out-polled other parties, despite some of these areas probably being stronger for the National Party. The percentage includes votes cast above-the-line and also all first preference votes cast below-the-line for a candidate from that party.

The scale used is the same as that used in the Legislative Assembly map, to allow for better comparisons. The only exception to this is the lowest percentage category, in which the minimum is >30% rather than >35%, as there were some seats with a lower level in the Legislative Council compared to the Legislative Assembly (probably due, in part, to the greater number of candidates contesting the Council).

As the very pale blue shade is almost indistinguishable from the very pale green shade, in Melbourne and Richmond, The Greens won a plurality of votes, whereas in Essendon, the Liberals won a plurality.

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Christian Parties

There were four parties that I would consider emphasise their "Christian credentials" that ran in the 2010 Victorian election: Family First (which attracts many of its votes from Pentecostals and Evangelicals, but also receive votes from some conservative Catholics), the DLP (which predominantly attracts its votes from conservative low-income Catholics, many of whom are probably older and still remember when the DLP and ALP split, or are the children of people who were members or supporters of the DLP during the time of the split - I know a handfull of these), the Christian Party and the Christian Democrats (Fred Nile Group). I don't know a profile of the people who vote for the Christian Party or the Christian Democrats, although the Christian Democrats are stronger in New South Wales than in other states - they actually hold an Upper House seat or two there (I'm too lazy to look up exactly how many). I think the Christian Party is relatively new, and hadn't run in previous elections. Their candidate in Bendigo East was the local chapter leader of the Australian Families Association, which is conservative Catholic and has strong ties to the DLP, so perhaps it's an attempt by the DLP to run a low-profile ticket in the Upper House to funnel preference votes to them from people wanting to vote "Christian" but who didn't realise the DLP's social stance (in other words, cheaper to run a ticket openly targeting conservative Christian voters, rather than run an advertising campaign for the DLP to try to attract those voters). I don't really know, that's just speculation on my part.

Anyway, here are a few maps looking at how these openly Christian parties performed, how Family First performed, how the DLP performed, and whether Family First or the DLP outpolled the other party, by District. I have used Legislative Council figures here, because personal votes tend to be lower in the Upper House as most people (close to 95%, although I'll do a map of that later) will cast above-the-line votes for a party, and because Family First didn't run candidates in a couple of seats, and the DLP only ran candidates in a few seats (I have a DLP map using Legislative Assembly votes, but really, it doesn't show much because so many seats didn't have a DLP candidate). It may be slightly distorted because the Christian Party only ran in a few Regions, and the Christian Democrats only ran in one, however it won't be by much... the Christian Democrats didn't crack 1% in any seat in which they ran and the Christian Party topped 1.5% in two electorates, and got more than 1% in less than half the electorates in which they ran. Overall, these four parties received 5.58% of the total formal vote statewide, which breaks down to 2.86% for Family First, 2.33% for the DLP, 0.3% for the Christian Party (which ran in 2 of the 8 Regions) and 0.08% for the Christian Democrats (which ran in 1 of the 8 Regions).

By comparison, in 2006, Family First received just over 4% of the primary vote, however many of their votes seem to have leaked to the DLP, so if anything, their vote was split, which probably accomplished little but to prevent them from receiving public funding (only parties receiving more than 4% of the vote are eligible for funding, at a rate of about $2 per vote in every electorate in which they received more than 4%... so if the DLP split Family First's vote, this may have simply resulted in the various Christian Parties receiving public funding than would otherwise be the case).

Generally, Christian parties received a higher vote in the suburban outskirts of Metropolitan Melbourne, a middle sort of vote level in rural Victoria, and low vote level in the inner suburbs of Metropolitan Melbourne, and the lowest level of all in the inner city. In 2010, the level in many rural seats was relatively higher (in terms of average vote) than it was in 2006. This is especially the case for Family First. I am not sure if this is due to the decrease in the Metropolitan area perhaps being greater than the decrease in rural areas, or whether the level there has actually increased (I might take a look at that later). In 2006, the vote received by Family First in many rural electorates was relatively (and surprisingly) low, compared to the party's statewide result. I saw a report in which it was speculated that this was due to conservative voters in these electorates being comfortable with the social viewpoints their National Party or country Liberal MPs.

One particular result which I found surprising was Bendigo East. In the life of the previous Parliament, a highly controversial abortion bill was passed. The Member for Bendigo East had voted in favour of the Bill and pro-life groups were specifically targeting her for this and because she is a member of Emily's List. She was also one of the more marginal seats that voted for the Bill, and Bendigo East has a high number of people identifying as Christian during the last Census, many of whom are Catholics. I am very surprised at just how low Christian parties generally performed in Bendigo East - to the extent that their vote there was lower than every neighbouring seat. The swing to the Liberal Party was also lower there than I had expected. The result in Mount Waverley was also lower than I expected - for the same reason. Mount Waverley was the most marginal Labor-held seat in the state and the incumbent was the Minister for Women, so was probably the top target for the pro-life groups. That said, the swing to the Liberals was far greater there, so perhaps some social conservatives swung directly to the Liberal Party rather than via the various Christian parties.

Legislative Council Primary Vote Results Total for the Four Christian Parties by District


Of note is the result in Thomastown (10.02%), Broadmeadows (10.4%) and Dandenong (10.81%) - all very safe Labor seats. The next tier are also safe Labor seats - Lyndhurst (8.34%), Mill Park (9.14%), Kororoit (9.17%) and Derrimut (9.69%). Indeed, every one of the 13 seats recording the highest total votes for the four Christian parties are held by Labor, and all of these 13 were held by Labor with more than 60% of the 2PP in 2006. Part of this may be socially conservative voters from low-income areas, who grew up voting Labor and who do not feel comfortable giving their first preference to the Liberals, although that's just speculation on my part.

Legislative Council Primary Vote Results for Family First by District


As I mentioned higher up this post, Family First does best in the outer suburban areas. Of particular interest is the result in Mildura. I'm not sure exactly what caused Family First to poll so well in Mildura, although it may have contributed to the Country Alliance missing out on the final position in the Northern Victoria Region (Country Alliance's votes were higher in some other Districts, but their result in Mildura was lower... the result was fairly close and for a while, some speculated that they would win the final Upper House position). Family First actually outpolled the Greens in Mildura - I'm pretty sure the only seat where this was the case.

Legislative Council Primary Vote Results for the DLP by District


As with the Christian vote generally, the DLP receives a higher percentage of the vote in the outer suburbs. The one thing that really stands out to me here is their higher vote in Bulleen and Doncaster (eastern suburbs, just south of the Yarra River - they're the two seats that stand out, surrounded by seats where the vote is lower). I can't explain it, it's not what I was expecting. I thought that perhaps the DLP ran candidates there in the lower house, so perhaps the booths were more heavily manned than neighbouring electorates, but this does not seem to be the case - the DLP did not run lower house candidates in those two seats, however did run candidates in the three seats immediately north of those two seats, and also in some of the seats below. I'll post that Legislative Assembly map after all, so you can see for yourself... Again, I'm surprised at how poorly the DLP performed in Mount Waverley and Bendigo East, given the high priority the AFA placed on unseating those two MPs.

Legislative Assembly Primary Vote for the DLP


Not really handy for much, except guessing seats where the DLP may have campaigned. It is interesting to note how few seats they ran candidates, especially in areas where they were strong (western, northern and south-eastern suburbs) - as evidenced by the high vote they received in some electorates, where they had no candidate in adjacent seats. Also consider the vote they received in the Legislative Council. Especially surprising is the absence of candidates in Lara and Melton (Western Vic), given these areas vote strongly for them and they were defending a Legislative Council position in that Region... possibly supporting the rumour that the Upper House incumbent wanted to lose because of a deal done that will see him replace the DLP Senator elected in the federal election (I must stress that this is just a rumour).

Family First vs DLP Primary Votes in the Legislative Council


The percentages in this map are based on the total vote received by Family First and the DLP - so basically shows seats where Family First outpolled the DLP and where the DLP outpolled Family First. The actual vote received by those parties is better reflected in the earlier maps, this one is really just useful in seeing which of these two parties performed better in a direct competition. The DLP's vote is fairly consistent, although is stronger in some aareas rather than others. Family First's vote, at least in Metropolitan Melbourne, is more strongly linked to proximity to the inner-city, so a fair amount of this is based on how well (or poorly) Family First did in each electorate.

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Swing To/Against the Coalition in the Legislative Assembly



There are a few things that pop out. The first is obviously the strong swing against the Coalition in the North of the State (Murray Valley, Shepparton, Rodney). The Liberal Party did not contest these seats, as they were held by the National Party. The incumbent in Murray Valley was retiring, but this doesn't explain the strong swing against. I haven't looked terribly closely, but I think that you'll find that the majority of the votes lost by the Coalition in these seats (and probably also in Benalla - to the South, Benambra - to the East, and Mildura, in the State's Northwest) went to the Country Alliance.

The very strong swing to the Coalition in Gippsland East was away from a (previously) popular independent MP who had held the seat since 1999. I've heard various reasons for this... I think he was on holidays when parts of the seat flooded, and he didn't return to lend a hand... There's also been speculation that the unpopularity of federal independents backing Labor had something to do with it. In reality, it's probably a combination of these and possibly other factors. As for the federal independent thing, though, he backed Labor to form a minority government in 1999, and the electorate returned him in 2002 and 2006 - although that was a very different set of circumstances (rural backlash against the Coalition and the momentum clearly being behind Labor - they're the ones who made all the gains), so there was in that sense more legitimacy in a Labor government. Prior to the independents making their decision, he offered a few words of advice - that if they back Labor, Labor will run dead against them and won't campaign against them, whereas the Coalition will always consider it a Coalition seat and will still try to oust them - so they were better off siding with Labor. Then, when it became obvious that plenty of rural voters were not pleased with the decision made by Oakeshott and Windsor, he backed away from those comments during the election campaign, saying that if he was left holding the balance of power again, he wouldn't make the same decision as he made in 1999... effectively disagreeing with his earlier statements. Anyway, the biggest swing in the state to the Coalition was in his seat.

There were also sizeable swings in two seats bordering his - Morwell and Narracan (Narracan is the larger and more Northerly of the two). These seats had been won by the Coalition from Labor incumbents at the previous election, so could be an example of the so-called 'sophomore surge.' Likewise for Evelyn (Eastern Victoria, but bordering on the Melbourne metropolitan area), although the MP who won the seat back at the last election was the one defeated at the previous, so you'd expect some of her personal vote to have remained at the preceding election, minimising the potential swing this time round. Hastings also elected a new member last election, and the swing there, while not as large as those other seats, was in excess of 7% (the swing to the Liberals was 9.58%, but the Nationals ran last time and their 2.25% needs to be accounted for since they didn't run this time).

Metro - the only seat to swing against the Liberals was Brunswick. Labor had a retiring MP there, and I think they were probably more concerned about the Greens there, than in other nearby seats... thus I think they pumped more resources into that seat, which probably accounts for that - this seat also shows up on the other maps I'm yet to post, especially the Greens swing map, because the swing there was less than might have been expected.

There was a big swing in Williamstown, which is unsurprising, given that this was Bracks's seat and he obviously would have had a big personal vote. This swing is most apparent in the swing map for Labor. There was also a big swing in the then-Premier's seat of Broadmeadows, probably in part due to the Liberal candidate being of Turkish ancestory (along with about a third of the voters).

I can't explain the large swing in Ivanhoe, although I believe the seat has been Liberal-held in the past, and I think there may have been a retiring MP there. Other big swings were in Kilsyth, Bayswater and Ferntree Gully - all marginal seats which elected a new MP at the last election (especially Ferntree Gully, which was the most marginal seat in the state, with a majority of 27 votes). Additionally, there was a large swing in Doncaster, which elected a Liberal to replace a retiring Liberal MP at the last election - so in a way this was a big swing to a first term MP up for re-election.

There were also small swings in a few seats, that stand out. Seymour, Albert Park and Essendon all had independent candidates, whose preferences flowed fairly strongly against Labor, but who all polled above 7%. Since these votes typically flowed as preferences to the Coalition, this probably reduced the swing to the Coalition.

Tarneit, on the Southwestern edge of the metropolitan map, had a new MP elected at the previous election (Labor MP). I guess the small swing against him is similar to the 'sophomore surge' again. Meanwhile in Caulfield, the incumbent Liberal MP retired, so again the swing was smaller than in neighbouring electorates.

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Swing To/Against the Labor Party in the Legislative Assembly



Again, there are a few things that stand out... firstly, the swing TO the Labor Party in Mildura (the only seat which saw a primary vote swing to the ALP). In fact, Labor more than doubled their vote there, from 6.66% to 15.2% (a swing of 8.55%). Much of this would be due to the defeat of the incumbent independent at the least election. Those Labor voters (and possibly an extra couple of percent who may have voted for the National Party, Country Alliance, another independent or another party this election) probably voted for the independent at the last election, but returned to Labor now that the independent was defeated.

There were also large swings against Labor in South-West Coast, Bendigo West, Seymour, Bellarine, Benambra, Evelyn, Hastings, Narracan and Morwell.

I can't explain South-West Coast, nor Benambra, although Benambra was a new Liberal MP elected last election, replacing a retiring Liberal MP, so perhaps he picked up a few voters from Labor there. More likely it's to do with the Country Alliance.

Bellarine is probably due to the performance of then-Minister Lisa Neville, who received very bad media relating to child abuse (not that she was abusing children personally, but she was the responsible Minister for the protection agencies). I'll leave it at that.

I've already discussed Evelyn, Hastings, Narracan and Morwell in the swing to the Coalition. A further factor involved in Narracan and Morwell may be Labor's environmental agenda. There are plenty of coal miners, coal power station workers and loggers in these electorates. The coal also happens to be brown coal, which contains more sulphur (or something) than black coal, so is especially opposed. Morwell used to be a fairly safe Labor seat, I think, just a few elections back, but now these types of workers are more likely to vote Coalition than they were in the past. The Liberal Member for Narracan is a former logger, if I remember correctly.

A further factor at play in Hastings may have had something to do with the respective parties' ports policy, as there is a large port there (although not as large as the Port of Melbourne). I was reading in the paper during the last couple of days that the Coalition had committed to upgrade Hastings to a container port. I don't know Labor's policy, but it's possible that had something to do with the swing there, too.

Bendigo West had a retiring Member (Police Minister Bob Cameron). That may have explained it, although I think Country Alliance may have polled reasonably strongly there, too.

Seymour, directly to the North of the Melbourne metropolitan area, had a few factors at play. Firstly, as previously mentioned in the preceding map, there was an independent candidate there who attracted >10% of the vote. I think very few of her voters would have voted Labor, though - so I don't think she exacerbated the swing. The electorate was badly hit during the Black Saturday bushfires - most of the people who died were from in this electorate, so all the findings of the Royal Commission, etc, would likely to have impacted on this seat (at least been in the back of people's minds). Additionally, the highly controversial North-South pipeline was strongly opposed in this seat and the independent candidate was actually the president of the "Plug the Pipe" community group.

Metro - The strong swings in Ferntree Gully and Kilsyth have already been explained. The small swing in Bayswater probably needs further explanation, however, given the strong swing to the Coalition in primary vote. Last election, when the current MP was first elected (winning the seat of Labor, after just one term), the previous Liberal MP ran as an independent candidate, probably taking additional votes off Labor. This election, his votes probably returned to the Liberal Party.

Other strong swings were experienced in Labor's heartland seats - especially, I note, Cranbourne. This probably surprises Hugh less than it surprises me.

Williamstown and Altona both experienced by-elections in the previous Parliament, as did Albert Park, which also saw an independent candidate attract almost 10% of the vote.

There was a retiring Member in Essendon, and Labor preselected then-Minister Justin Madden to replace her (coming down from the Upper House to run for her seat). Madden was Planning Minister and involved in a scandal involving the heritage-listed Windsor Hotel. I personally believe he was one of the strongest negatives for the government, so a strong swing against him in this seat is unsurprising to me. Additionally, the former local mayor ran as an independent candidate and attracted >7% of the vote.

There were strongish swings in Burwood and Oakleigh. In Oakleigh, I think I've already mentioned, there is a large Greek-ethnic population. The Liberal candidate was the first Greek candidate (I mean ethnically Greek, he's 21 and born here) to run for either major party.

There were fairly small swings in a couple of other marginal seats, however - Forest Hill and Mitcham, which I suspect shows the resources Labor put into retaining those seats.

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Swing To/Against the Greens in the Legislative Assembly



Again, there are quite a few things that stand out. As a side note firstly, there was a slight swing against the Greens in Mildura, in the state's Northwest. They were outpolled here by Family First - the only seat where that happened, if my memory serves me correct.

I was surprised by the swing against the Greens in Gembrook and Monbulk - the town of Belgrave is split between these two seats and is very Green... It's at the end of the railway line, so more of a commuter and to a lesser extent tree-change area, but has a large alternative lifestyle.

The swing against the Greens in Morwell was probably due to them promising to close the local power plant and put local workers out of a job, although they shouldn't fret too much because it will be easy for them to find work in the new green economy...

There were very big swings in three Western suburbs seats - Derrimut, Footscray and Williamstown, probably due to the area having representation in the Upper House for the first time. Williamstown is becoming more expensive - especially in the North of the electorate (close to the city) and along the Eastern side of the electorate and to the Southeast (along the water). Those people have a generational opposition to the Liberals, though, in many cases, but are affluant, so they vote Greens instead. Some parts of Footscray as well - especially along the Maribyrnong River, although Derrimut is still quite low socio-economic, although a Labor scandal in the local Brimbank Council may have encouraged a few people to switch to the Greens there, too.

The large swing in Preston (Northern Metropolitan) surprises me, however. I don't think it's gentrification because it's still too far out of the city.

The swings against the Greens in Albert Park and Prahran are interesting, however. Albert Park may be partially due to the independent candidate, however I can't think why Prahran would have swung against them.

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Put together a new base map without the inset. Here are the 2010 2CP results using the new outline:

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Re-annimating the thread, to add a few more maps. Will probably add some more over the next few days (planning on turnout and Leg Assembly primary votes)

2010 Victorian State Election
Coalition Primary Vote in the Legislative Council, by Legislative Assembly District




2010 Victorian State Election
Labor Party Primary Vote in the Legislative Council, by Legislative Assembly District




2010 Victorian State Election
Greens Party Primary Vote in the Legislative Council, by Legislative Assembly District

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2010 Victorian State Election
Turnout by Legislative Assembly District




2010 Victorian State Election
Legislative Assembly Informal Vote by District




2010 Victorian State Election
Legislative Council Below-the-Line Vote by District