The Battle of Titans: 2012

[NHI]

*I know recently I have started a few timelines that have gone nowhere, and I apologize for that. Unfortunately the stories have gotten away from me and prove not to work. Now, my most recent timeline After Hope and Change will be retooled going forward. This timeline will not be about The Presidency of John McCain, but instead about the race to replace him in 2012...

Preview:

Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 272 EV  49.3% PV

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 266 EV  49.0%

The defeat of Barack Obama, all but ensured the nomination of Hillary Clinton in 2012, and most speculated she would announce another run for President. She ultimately did in March of 2011. While most of the party rallied to the idea of Hillary Clinton as the candidate, a few were not so trigger happy, and while they acknowledged Clinton would ultimately be the nominee, these select few felt she should earn the nomination, not be entitled. Sen. Russ Feingold and Sen. Bernie Sanders both announced campaigns for President.

The Republican side was much more divided. President John McCain would be stepping down after one term, which would prompt the Vice President, Sarah Palin up to be the standard bearer of the party. However, some, fearing a political disaster, began to find another a candidate to replace Palin. Refusing to be driven out of the race, Palin announced proudly that she would indeed run for President in 2012, and would be the nominee. "We're looking at the first female race for the White House, America."

Congressman Ron Paul announced following Palin's announcement that he would be a candidate for the nomination. While Paul was a long shot, his entrance proved that Palin had a rough road ahead. However, some in the party establishment were looking for another, more commanding candidate that could actually win. Governor Mitt Romney announced he would not seek the Presidency, as did Governor Jeb Bush and Rep. Paul Ryan.

This left only one other person in the eyes of the GOP to challenge Palin, Governor Mitch Daniels. Daniels danced around the issue of running for President. He would be challenging a sitting Vice President, but the consensus of most in the party was that she could not win...

Though reluctant, Governor Mitch Daniels announced his intention to run for President of the United States, citing that same premise of the Democrats. "We need to have a real discussion about the future our party and our country."

[NHI]

National Democratic Polls:

Clinton: 62%

Feingold: 20%

Sanders: 14%

National Republican Polls:

Palin: 44%

Daniels: 33%

Paul: 19%

Iowa:

Iowa Caucuses: Democrats

Clinton: 53%

Sanders: 32%

Feingold: 13%

"We have proven tonight that the American people want someone with a more progressive record, a record for working families, a plan to strengthen and protect our entitlement programs. I'm that candidate and I look forward to debating the issues with Senator Clinton going forward."

Iowa Caucuses: Republicans

Palin: 40%

Daniels: 37%

Paul: 21%

The Vice President's narrow win caused many to worry. "I don't think she can win." Charles Krauthammer declared. "She may win the nomination, tap Daniels for V.P. but she won't win against Clinton or Feingold or even Sanders."

Baier: Do you believe conservatives will support her?

Krauthammer: People will support her, but not in the way that Daniels would be supported. The establishment pushed Daniels into the race because they fear that in a race with Clinton Palin will be destroyed, even though she's been Vice President.

NH Primary Poll:

Democrats:
Clinton: 58%
Sanders: 28%
Feingold: 9%

Republicans:

Daniels: 40%

Palin: 40%

Paul: 17%

"Feingold's out. This is now a two man race on the Democrat's side and I think Clinton will be finish Sanders off quickly. He needed to make a strong showing in Iowa, but he didn't, so he's just a base candidate, he appeals to some, but the majority will never expect him.

Now on the Republicans we've got Paul who will always take about 19-20 percent of the vote, but the real race is between Daniels and Palin, and I think if Daniels is going to have a real showing in this fight he needs to win New Hampshire, not just by a point or two, but in a landslide. He has to make the case that Palin is unelectable and her candidacy would destroy the party. He's started to say it, but not quite that blunt, or blunt like maybe he should."

In the latest Wall Street Journal Poll, in a contest between Clinton and Palin, it's a landslide for the Democratic senator, while in a race against Daniels, it's a bit tighter.

Clinton v. Palin:

Clinton: 59%

Palin: 36%

Clinton v. Daniels:

Clinton: 48%

Daniels: 43%

"Looking at those numbers, Daniels can make the case that he's the most electable, right, Richard Wolfe, you're thoughts?"

"Certainly, Daniels can make that argument, but I don't think it matters. The Republicans could put up Ronald Reagan and the Democrats are still going to win this election. There is Republican exhaustion and frustration over the present course of America right now. Unemployment stands at eight percent, the right track, wrong track is through the roof. This election favors the Democrats easily."

"Also one has to think that a long fight in the primary hurts the party. If Daniels does well, then this fight is going to go on for a while and it's going to get nasty. Now Palin has largely remained above the fray, making only stops at campaign rallies, and not directly engaging in town halls or forums. She did not agree to a debate, but if Daniels wins New Hampshire, then all that changes."

NH:

New Hampshire: Democrats:

Clinton: 66%

Sanders: 32%

New Hampshire: Republicans

Daniels: 49%

Paul: 25%

Palin: 23%

"This is going to go on, isn't it?" -- Vice Pres. Sarah Palin to a staffer.

South Carolina: Republican Poll

Daniels: 45%

Palin: 33%

Paul: 19%

Florida: Republican Poll

Daniels: 51%

Palin: 36%

Paul: 10%

Nevada: Republican Poll

Daniels: 44%

Paul: 28%

Palin: 24%

Governor Daniels receives the surprise endorsement of former Governor Jeb Bush, following the the New Hampshire Primary.

Palin greets supporters with Governor Nikki Haley, after receiving her endorsement.

"Our campaign is going to continue on, because we have a message that resonates with the American people. It is about working families, the middle class and fair taxation. Senator Clinton seems content with dealing with the status quo, I'm not."

Clinton v. Sanders:

Clinton: 69%

Sanders: 27%

[NHI]

Palin repeatedly refused offers by Daniels to debate before the South Carolina Primary. Even, her campaign manger and staff all agreed she needed to debate Daniels, after a third place finish in New Hampshire. "You've got to come out and hit him, before he defines you and walks away with this."Palin continued to refuse, and so Daniels continued to climb in the polls...

On the Democratic side Clinton was all but assured the nomination, though Sanders remained persistent. While Clinton drew overflow crowds at rallies and town halls, Sanders was working with smaller groups and by visiting shops and businesses across the state of South Carolina.

"The establishment wants Senator Clinton and she's a very fine lady and I respect her. But we must not forget that she has tended to side with Republicans on issues, such as the Iraq War, and tends to forget progressive and democratic values when she can. I call her Democratic-lite."

"I have great admiration and respect for Senator Sanders, and I am glad he is making his case. But I do believe that the people will speak, they will decide and we will have a united Democratic party, ready for victory in November against whoever the Republicans put up. We're not running against a person, we are running against a failed ideology. An ideology that for twelve years has put us deeper and deeper into debt, given tax breaks to the wealthiest Americans and tarnished our image at home and abroad."

"I do wish Vice President Palin would remember that the people vote. They're not going to for who they're told to vote for. I would also suggest that a rose garden like strategy isn't the best thing for her campaign, not that I'm complaining. [Laughter] But, if she can't debate me, then how is she going to debate Hillary Clinton, and folks do we really want another Clinton as President?"

South Carolina: Primary

..."CNN can now project that Senator Hillary Clinton will win the South Carolina primary, based on the exit polling we've received."

Projected Winner

South Carolina:

Clinton: 79%

Sanders: 19%

"A landslide win for Senator Clinton, but on the Republican side we are not able to project a winner, yet."

South Carolina:

Daniels: 41%

Palin: 36%

Paul: 18%

[NHI]

"CNN can now project that Mitch Daniels will win the South Carolina primary."

Projected Winner

Daniels: 47%

Palin: 33%

Paul: 18%

Vice President Palin addresses supporters, after receiving a finte endorsement from President McCain.

"We're going to continue to make our case as we fight for this nomination, and thank God for a fight. Because that is what American Democracy is about. And to prove the testament of American Democracy, I will see you Governor Daniels for a debate in Florida!"

"I'm not too worried. We did well in Iowa, we came in second in New Hampshire and did well here in South Carolina. Now, our friends can have their fights, but it's going to matter about delegates and that is one case where we're going to win! Governor Daniels and Vice President Palin can fight each other till the cows come in, it's only going to help our cause!"

Florida: Republican Poll

Daniels: 55%

Palin: 32%

Paul: 11%

Nevada: Republican Poll

Daniels: 46%

Paul: 29%

Palin: 23%

Minnesota: Republican Poll

Daniels: 41%

Paul: 29%

Palin: 27%

Colorado: Republican Poll

Daniels: 43%

Palin: 32%

Paul: 23%

Maine: Republican Poll

Daniels: 38%

Paul: 34%

Palin: 26%

"Palin is crashing and crashing fast. Two devastating defeats for The Vice President in two crucial nominating states, especially South Carolina, a state which has picked the winner of the Republican nomination, going back to Nixon."

....

"Let me finish tonight. The polls aren't looking good for Palin anywhere. She's done by double digits or trailing in third, behind Ron Paul. If she wants to win this nomination, then she has to debate and not just win it, but knock it clear out of the park, otherwise when the time comes to face the likely Democrat nominee of Hillary Clinton, she can at least be somewhat prepared to face the seasoned Clinton."

The Debate:

Q. Governor, there is very little policy difference between yourself and the Vice President. With that noted, what distinguishes you from Vice President Palin in this race?

Moderator: That I can win.

Applause:

Daniels: To elaborate on that, I'm in this race because I can win the election against Hillary Clinton. This is not just my personal biases, but the data backs it up. In every poll I run neck and neck with Clinton, while the Vice President trails her. Once the nomination is settled and we can draw the contrasts I will be able to mount a serious bid against the Senator and defeat her. To add to that, I have great respect for the Vice President, she's done a great job, but when it comes to electability I am the only candidate who can win.

Moderator: Gov. Palin's your response?

Palin: Well, I believe it was said of Ronald Reagan that he too was unelectable and yet he won against Jimmy Carter and did a remarkable job. Governor Daniels, I am not running for the second term of John McCain or the third term of George Bush, I am running on my own merit and my own experience. When it comes to spending, to fiscal policy and national security I can win all those arguments against Senator Clinton, and because of that I will be able to win the election.

Daniels: "I'd love to say that were true Madame Vice President, but the proof is in the pudding. Your favorability numbers are extremely low for a Vice President, your polling against Clinton is low. I don't see how you can make the case that you can win, when the data just plain isn't there.

Florida Primary:

Projected Winner

"CNN is now projecting that Senator Clinton will win the Florida Primary.

Florida:

Clinton: 86%

Sanders: 12%

"We cannot make a projection on the Republican side just yet. Now going into today the expectation is that Governor Daniels will win the primary, but Vice President Palin has been hitting the stump in the closing days, so we'll see if that makes a difference."

Florida:

Daniels: 50%

Palin: 37%

Paul: 11%

States won by Candidates:

Daniels:

Palin:
Paul:

9:56

"We can project after a bit of uncertainty at first, that Governor Daniels has won the Florida Primary. CNN project Mitch Daniels the winner.

Projecte Winner

Daniels: 54%

Palin: 34%

Paul: 10%

Clinton v. Palin: Matchup

Clinton: 59%

Palin: 36%

Clinton v. Daniels: Matchup

Clinton: 50%

Daniels: 45%

[Niemeyerite]

Oh, please, let Sanders win somewhere.

[NHI]

Vice President Palin has lost three of first four contests and looks poised to loses Nevada and the other upcoming contests. There are those in the party who are now calling on her to bow out, for the longer this drags on, the harder it is going to be on the eventual nominee...

Nevada:

Projected Winner

Democrats:

Clinton: 78%

Sanders: 21%

This is Sen. Clinton's fifth straight win, but don't expect Sen. Sanders to be bowing out just yet. He didn't even focus on Nevada, but instead has spent the week campaigning in Maine, where he hopes to pull an upset over Mrs. Clinton.

On the Republican side we are showing a tight race, surprisingly between Gov. Daniels and Vice President Palin. A week ago Daniels was beating Palin by twenty-five points, tonight he is only up by two, so is this a sign for a possible upset?

Republicans:

Daniels: 37%

Palin: 32%

Paul: 29%

...

We can now project that Governor Daniels will win the Nevada Caucuses, but by a narrow margin.

Nevada:
Daniels: 36%
Palin: 34%
Paul: 29%

"The message from the Daniels' campaign is a win is a win, but the message coming from the Vice President's is they managed to close a twenty-five point gap down to two."

"Palin's strategy was very docile in the beginning, I expect her to go after Gov. Daniels in a big way and make a play for states like Minnesota, Colorado, Missouri and Arizona."

Minnesota:

Clinton: 65%
Sanders: 33%

Colorado:

Clinton: 62%
Sanders: 36%

Missouri:

Clinton: 75%

Sanders: 24%

Minnesota:

Daniels: 41%
Paul: 36%

Palin: 21%

Colorado:

Palin: 39%

Daniels: 38%

Paul: 21%

Missouri:

Palin: 43%

Daniels: 40%

Paul: 15%

"Do we want a weak moderate to lead out party, or do we want someone who champions Conservative values and can actually win?"

Maine:

Daniels: 43%

Paul: 37%

Palin: 16%

We projected Governor Daniels the winner in Maine, with Ron Paul coming in a close second. On the Democrat's side Sen. Clinton receives her first loss of the campaign to Bernie Sanders.

"This win has motivated us, and given us the energy needed to keep making the case and promoting our values which are deeply American values."

Maine:

Sanders: 51%

Clinton: 49%

Arizona:

Clinton: 81%
Sanders: 18%

Michigan:

Clinton: 60%

Sanders: 39%

Michigan:

Daniels: 50%

Palin: 38%

Paul: 10%

Arizona:

Palin: 47%

Daniels: 40%

Paul: 11%

...Vice President Palin has carried Iowa, Colorado, Arizona and Missouri, though no delegates will be awarded just yet. Governor Daniels has carried New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Michigan, Minnesota and Maine. Daniels leads Palin in the delegate with 150 to Palin's 86.

Daniels: 150 Delegates: 7 States Carried

Palin: 86 Delegates: 4 States Carried

Paul: 43 Delegates: 1 State Carried

Washington:

Paul: 37%

Daniels: 31

Palin: 30%

Washington:

Sanders: 49%

Clinton: 48%

[NHI]

Who Do you Support for The Republican Nomination?

Daniels: 46%

Palin: 45%

Super Tuesday: Republicans

Massachusetts:

Daniels: 60%

Palin: 20%

Paul: 17%

Ohio:

Daniels: 50%

Palin: 39%

Paul: 9%

Vermont:

Daniels: 50%

Paul: 29%

Palin: 19%

Virginia:

Daniels: 44%

Palin: 40%

Paul: 14%

Oklahoma:

Palin: 55%

Daniels: 40%

Paul: 4%

Tennessee:

Palin: 49%

Daniels: 44%

Paul: 5%

North Dakota:

Daniels: 51%

Paul: 24%

Palin: 23%

Alaska:

Paul: 36%

Palin: 32%

Daniels: 30%

Idaho:

Daniels: 40%

Palin: 38%

Paul: 20%

Georgia:

Palin: 46%

Daniels: 44%

Paul: 8%

[Jerseyrules]

Your TLs never disappoint!

[NHI]

Daniels: 383 Delegates 13 States Carried

Palin: 263 Delegates 8 States Carried

Paul: 70 Delegates 2 States Carried

..."The Vice President has been unable to win the states that matter, and if she can't win there then how is she going to be able to win the election?

Democrats

Alaska:

Sanders: 50%

Clinton: 49%

Georgia:

Clinton: 69%

Sanders: 30%

Idaho:

Clinton: 51%

Sanders: 48%

Massachusetts:

Clinton: 59%

Sanders: 40%

North Dakota:

Clinton: 59%

Sanders: 40%

Ohio:

Clinton: 61%

Sanders: 38%

Oklahoma:

Clinton: 60%

Sanders: 39%

Vermont:

Sanders: 88%

Clinton: 11%

Virginia:

Clinton: 67%

Sanders: 32%

Clinton: 628 Delegates 19 States Carried

Sanders: 111 Delegates 4 States Carried

Most pundits declared Clinton the presumptive nominee.

"I'm not going anywhere, this fight has just begun. Kind of like Ronald Reagan in 1976, it's on the convention if need be."

March 10th Contests:

Wyoming:

Palin: 53%

Daniels: 37%

Paul: 9%

Kansas:

Paul: 36%

Daniels: 33%

Palin: 29%

US Virgin Islands:

Paul: 34%

Daniels: 32%

Palin: 31%

Guam:

Daniels: 35%

Paul: 32%

Palin: 31%

Daniels: 392 Delegates 13 States Carried + Guam

Palin: 292 Delegates 9 States Carried

Paul: 116 Delegates 3 States carried + US VI

Kansas:

Clinton: 70%

Sanders: 29%

Wyoming:

Clinton: 60%

Sanders: 39%

US Virgin Island

Clinton: 90%

Sanders: 9%

Guam:

Clinton: 91%

Sanders: 8%

Clinton: 712 Delegates 21 States Carried + Guam & US VI

Sanders: 111 4 States Carried

March 13:

Alabama:

Palin: 40%

Daniels: 32%

Paul: 26%

Hawaii:

Paul: 39%

Daniels: 37%

Palin: 22%

Mississippi:

Daniels: 37%

Palin: 36%

Paul: 25%

Daniels: 432 Delegates 14 States Carried + Guam

Palin: 342 Delegates 10 States Carried

Paul: 136 Delegates 4 States Carried + US VI

Alabama:

Clinton: 74%

Sanders: 25%

Hawaii:

Sanders: 49.0%

Clinton: 48.9%

Mississippi:

Clinton: 80%

Sanders: 19%

Clinton: 802 Delegates 23 States Carried + US IV & Guam

Sanders: 131 Delegates 5 States Carried

Missouri: (Republicans)

Palin: 40.2%

Daniels: 40.1%

Paul: 18.0%

Daniels: 432 Delegates 14 States Carried + Guam

Palin: 394 Delegates 11 States Carried

Paul: 136 Delegates 4 States Carried + US VI

March 18th, March 20th, March 24th:

Puerto Rico:

Daniels: 50%

Palin: 40%

Paul: 9%

Clinton: 92%

Sanders: 7%

Illinois:

Daniels: 44%

Palin: 42%

Paul: 13%

Clinton: 71%

Sanders: 28%

Louisiana:

Palin: 42%

Daniels: 38%

Paul: 18%

Clinton: 84%

Sanders: 15%

Daniels: 521 Delegates 15 States Carried + Guam and PR

Palin: 440 Delegates 12 States Carried

Paul: 136 Delegates 4 States Carried + US VI

Clinton: 937 Delegates 25 States Carried + Guam, US VI and PR

Sanders: 131 Delegates 5 States Carried

"Today I officially suspend my bid for the Democratic nomination, and am hereby endorse Sen. Clinton."

Clinton addresses her supporters, following Sanders' concession.

Clinton v. Daniels:

Clinton: 52%

Daniels: 44%

Clinton v. Palin:

Clinton: 58%

Palin: 36%

Polling: Republicans

Daniels: 44%

Palin: 44%

Paul: 8%

Texas:

Daniels: 38%

Palin: 36%

Paul: 25%

Wisconsin:

Daniels: 50%

Palin: 29%

Paul: 20%

Maryland:

Daniels: 61%

Palin: 24%

Paul: 14%

"We're going to win Texas" -- Vice Pres. Palin on the stump.

Palin receives the surprise endorsement of Gov. Rick Perry.

[Niemeyerite]

I was hoping for a 3rd party Sander's run...

Now, GO CLINTON!

[NHI]

April 3rd:

Texas:

Palin: 42%

Daniels: 34%

Paul: 21%

Wisconsin:

Daniels: 40%

Palin: 36%

Paul: 22%

Maryland:

Daniels: 49%

Palin: 37%

Paul: 14%

District of Columbia:

Paul: 37%

Daniels: 36%

Palin: 25%

Daniels: 600 Delegates 17 States Carried + Guam

Palin: 595 Delegates 13 States Carried

Paul: 155 Delegates 4 States Carried + US VI & D.C.

April 24th:

Santorum endorses Palin.

Connecticut:

Daniels: 49%

Palin: 37%

Paul: 12%

Delaware:

Daniels: 50%

Palin: 40%

Paul: 9%

Rhode Island:

Daniels: 50%

Palin: 39%

Paul: 10%

New York:

Daniels: 52%

Palin: 38%

Paul: 10%

Pennsylvania:

Palin: 42%

Daniels: 38%

Paul: 18%

Daniels: 759 Delegates 21 States Carried + Guam

Palin: 667 Delegates 14 States Carried

Paul: 155 Delegates 4 States Carried + US VI & D.C.

May 8th:

Indiana:

Daniels: 61%

Palin: 25%

Paul: 13%

North Carolina:

Palin: 45%

Daniels: 40%

Paul: 14%

West Virginia:

Palin: 50%

Daniels: 43%

Paul: 6%

Daniels: 805 Delegates 22 States Carried + Guam

Palin: 753 Delegates 16 States Carried

Paul: 155 Delegates 4 States Carried + US VI & D.C.

May 15th:

Nebraska:

Palin: 50%

Daniels: 46%

Paul: 3%

Oregon:

Palin: 41%

Daniels: 39%

Paul: 19%

May 22nd:

Arkansas:

Palin: 48%

Daniels: 44%

Paul: 7%

Kentucky:

Palin: 49%

Daniels: 43%

Paul: 8%

Palin: 897 Delegates 18 States Carried

Daniels: 805 Delegates 22 States Carried + Guam

Paul: 155 Delegates 4 States Carried + US VI & D.C.

"We're going to have a real fight. It's a good fight, a fight for our party's future!"

June 5th:

California:

Daniels: 51%

Palin: 37%

Paul: 11%

Montana:

Palin: 50%

Daniels: 36%

Paul: 13%

New Jersey:

Daniels: 55%

Palin: 33%

Paul: 11%

New Mexico:

Palin: 45.2%

Daniels: 44.9%

Daniels: 8.9%

South Dakota:

Palin: 49%

Daniels: 44%

Paul: 6%

June 26th:

Utah:

Palin: 50%

Daniels: 44%

Paul: 5%

Daniels: 1,027 Delegates 24 States Carried + Guam

Palin: 1,014 Delegates 22 States Carried

Paul: 155 Delegates 4 States Carried + US VI & D.C.

"I believe we have the momentum and the energy going into the convention, and we'll be able to win the nomination. This is our chance to have 1976 over again, only this time we will nominate a true conservative."

"Let the GOP have their convention fun, we'll get focused on the real issues and that is getting America back on a path of greatness. A path of fairness."

Clinton v. Palin:

Clinton: 58%

Palin: 37%

Clinton v. Daniels:

Clinton: 54%

Daniels: 40%

Clinton subsequently tapped Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia to be her running mate. "We will in November, there's no way around it."

[Niemeyerite]

Great. Clinton should have an easy election.

[Jerseyrules]

Go Paul!

[NHI]

"Vice President. Palin and Gov. Daniels are practically tied. Only thirteen delegates separate them, so that first ballot could go either way. Now I think if there is not a winner on the first ballot, meaning Governor Daniels, then we'll be looking at a draft candidate for the first time since Eisenhower."

The Convention:

"Our nation is at a crossroads and whether we are going to return to stagnation, or if we're to go forward towards a better and more prosperous America."

"Vote, with your hearts and your heads, my fellow Conservatives. Let us not go with another moderate, incapable of winning the election against a seasoned Hillary Clinton. Like Reagan in 1976 we have a chance to begin the world anew. Let us make that possible, let us champion that cause. Let us be what we choose to be."

First Ballot: 2,286 Delegates

Palin: 1,166 (51.00%)

Daniels: 1,063 (46.50%)

Paul: 57 (2.5%)

With the power of the Vice Presidency and a few back room deals Palin managed to narrowly clinch the nomination. Daniels bowed out graciously, and refused the Vice Presidency, in an by attempt to unite the party. Ultimately, Palin tapped Rick Perry to be her running mate.

The Republican Ticket: Palin/Perry

As for Ron Paul, frustrated at being ignored at the convention, left the Republican Party and announced a third party bid for the presidency.

"We're now running for the status quo, we're running to fight, preserve and restore the fundamental principles of liberty in this country. That is our cause and I believe people will draw to it."

Paul tapped former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, and created a split in the Republican Party that was trying to rise about the very contentious primary battle and convention.

2012 Polling:

Clinton: 47%

Palin: 30%

Paul: 21%

"The question is not going to be will Clinton win, but how much will she win by?" -- Chris Matthews

Solid Red: Clinton
Solid Blue: Palin
Light Red: Lean Clinton
Light Blue: Lean Palin
Light Green: Lean Paul
Grey: Tossup

305

112

10

"The change America so desperately needs. Change is coming from the failed policies of George Bush, President McCain and Vice President Palin!"-- Sen. Clinton.

"I'm confident that we will win because we have the message and the plan to fix American's troubles" -- Vice Pres. Palin.

"We are a force to reckon with, we are dangerous to the status quo of both parties!" -- Rep. Ron Paul.

[Jerseyrules]

Go Paul!  Noteworthy is that Reagan had a much better chance of winning and having a successful presidency in 1980....

[Dancing with Myself]

Darn it, I was hoping for a Daniels nomination!

I guess I will be rooting for Clinton now.

[NHI]

Darn it, I was hoping for a Daniels nomination!

I guess I will be rooting for Clinton now.

I was very torn, but with Palin as the GOP nominee I was able to include Paul as a third party candidate.

[NHI]

Polling:

Clinton: 48%

Palin: 29%

Paul: 22%

The three debates were entertaining. Palin continuously ducked out against a confrontation against Clinton. Paul's efforts were strong, as he dinged both candidates, but focused mostly on Palin. Clinton was deemed the winner of all three debates.

She's the most presidential. She looks already in command." -- Chris Matthews

"Palin has proven herself to be a useless candidate. With Paul in the race we're looking at crushing defeat in the election." -- Laura Ingram

"I never thought I'd be saying but this election is between two intellects of philosophy. Clinton on the liberal ideology and Paul on the conservative ideology. The Vice President is hurting our party in the long run." -- Rush Limbaugh

"America is ready to end the Republican rule which has brought this country down for twelve years, making us a second rate nation with no ambitions, no direction and no future. That will change as we restore accountability to Washington, ending tax breaks for the rich, and creating a foreign policy that is not just about defense, but diplomacy."

Image Link[/img]

Clinton/Warner

Palin/Perry

Paul/Johnson

"Good Evening America and welcome to MSNBC's coverage of Election Night 2012. I'm Rachel Maddow, joining me are Chris Matthews, Ed Schultz, Lawrence O'Donnell and Al Sharpton. Let us begin right off. We are able to make our first projection in the state of Vermont.

Sen. Hillary Clinton will carry the state of Vermont."

50.9%-  32.0% - 15.7%

"So an expected win for the senator, but certainly a big win for Mrs. Clinton, tonight. A sign of things to come?" -- Rachel Maddow.

"Clinton is going win this. I've always said that, it just comes down to the margin. I think after tonight the Republican party is going to be examining itself. A Daniels' nomination would have been for the party's longevity. There could have been a clear and articulate message. Now I don't think he could have beaten Sen. Clinton, but still it would have been a better discussion then having,--" Chris Matthews

"Moron?" -- Ed Schultz.

"Sorry to cut in our this discussion gentlemen, but we do have a projection make in the state of Kentucky.

MSNBC is projecting Sen. Clinton will carry the state of Kentucky and it's eight electoral votes."

39.9% - 36.5% - 22.4%

Clinton/Warner: 11 45.4%

Palin/Perry: 0 34.3%

Paul/Johnson: 0 19.1%

"So it is Sen. Clinton with an early lead, and with Rep. Ron Paul giving a strong showing tonight with nineteen percent of the vote, compared to Vice President Palin who has thirty-four percent. I did not expect him to be doing as well as is right now, predictions does he surpass what Ross Perot took in 1992?"

"Yes. Easily." -- Lawrence O'Donnell

"We are now projecting South Carolina for the Vice President."

49.8% - 38.1% - 10.7%

Clinton/Warner: 11 43.0%

Palin/Perry: 9 39.4%

Paul/Johnson: 0 16.3%

"Another state that was expected, what is certainly interesting are the results pouring in from Georgia, Indiana and Ohio." -- Rachel Maddow.

"Palin is doing badly is all three, three states which John McCain won in 2008." -- Chris Matthews.

Georgia:

Palin: 38.9%

Clinton: 38.0%

Paul: 20.4%

Indiana:

Clinton: 45.3%

Palin: 40.0%

Paul: 13.5%

Ohio:

Clinton: 48.0%

Palin: 38.2%

Paul: 11.1%

"MSNBC is now projecting Sen. Clinton will carry the state of Virginia."

49.1% - 37.5% - 12.0%

Clinton/Warner: 11 44.5%

Palin/Perry: 9 38.6%

Paul/Johnson: 0 15.3%

[NHI]

"MSNBC is now projecting the state of Ohio for Sen. Clinton."

48.7% - 38.7% - 11.2%

Clinton/Warner: 150 46.6%

Palin/Perry: 31 36.4%

Paul/Johnson: 0 13.9%

"Clinton is just dominating, with a win in Ohio her victory is all but assured." -- Lawrence O'Donnell

"There's a bit of a fight in New Hampshire right now between Clinton and Paul. Clinton will probably win there, but it shows that Paul still has some fight in him even though he has yet to carry a state." -- Chris Matthew.

New Hampshire:

Clinton: 37.7%

Paul: 34.4%

Palin: 25.0%

"This just in, MSNBC can now project that Vice President Palin has won the state of Georgia."

39.5% - 38.1% - 20.4%

"I'm really surprised she held that state, given that much of the south has gone to Clinton and it looks like Florida..."

"MSNBC is now projecting the state of Florida for Sen. Clinton."

48.2% - 38.0% - 12.4%

"And it appears that we can now project the state of New Hampshire for Mrs. Clinton as well."

38.8% - 34.2% - 25.6%

Clinton/Warner: 183 45.9%

Palin/Perry: 47 37.4%

Paul/Johnson: 0 14.9%

And to add to her list, MSNBC is now projecting Arkansas for Mrs. Clinton as well."

49.9% - 40.2% - 9.0%

Clinton/Warner: 189 46.5%

Palin/Perry: 47 36.4%

Paul/Johnson: 0 13.9%

[NHI]

Clinton/Warner: 258 46.5%

Palin/Perry: 95 34.1%

Paul/Johnson: 0 14.9%

There stands the electoral map at this hour, about forty-five minutes after nine. Sen. Clinton continues to dominate, while Vice President Palin is struggling to keep up." -- Rachel Maddow.

"It looks like Ron Paul may actually win a state tonight. In New Mexico it is a very close contest between Sen. Clinton and Rep. Paul, not doubt heightened by former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson's presence on the ticket. Right now it is Paul who is leading." -- Lawrence O'Donnell

"And he is fighting for second in the state of Wyoming with Sen. Clinton." -- Chris Matthews.

"At this time MSNBC is able to project that Rep. Ron Paul has carried the state of Ne Mexico."

35.4% - 34.9% - 28.3%

I never thought he'd carry a state." -- Ed Schultz

Clinton/Warner: 258 47.4%

Palin/Perry: 95 33.1%

Paul/Johnson: 5 15.9%

"Coming back to reality gentlemen, MSNBC is now projecting that Sen. Clinton will win the state of Missouri."

45.5% - 40.0% - 13.4%

Clinton/Warner: 268 47.7%

Palin/Perry: 95 32.4%

Paul/Johnson: 5 16.0%

"Predictions, what state puts her over?" '-- Chris Matthews.

"At this point it could be South Carolina, Louisiana, Indiana even. Frankly the GOP brand is so tainted, that I'm not surprised at the showing tonight." -- Al Sharpton

"Well pontificate no further, MSNBC is now projecting the state of Colorado will be won by Sen. Clinton, thereby making her the next President of the United States of America.

Hillary Clinton: Elected 45th President of the United States

39.9% - 31.1% - 27.6%

Clinton/Warner: 277 47.5%

Palin/Perry: 32.6%

Paul/Johnson: 5 16.3%

"A historic night. A night to remember. Hillary Clinton is a fighter, she has fought many impressive battles both political and personal over her career and tonight stands at the height of American popularity, having just made history." -- Chris Matthews.

"We forget that Sarah Palin made history as being the first female Vice President elected in this country and yet her tenure was overshadowed by a troubled economy and her own shortcomings, which no doubt helped make this night possible for Hillary Clinton." -- Rachel Maddow.

"Tonight we get to celebrate what could and frankly should have happened four years ago." -- Lawrence O'Donnell

Epilogue:

Clinton/Warner: 422 44.3%

Palin/Perry: 108 32.4%

Paul/Johnson: 8 21.9%

[Jerseyrules]

Yes!  Ronnie breaks the 20% barrier!

[Pingvin]

Yes!  Ronnie breaks the 20% barrier!

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Yes!  Ronnie breaks the 20% barrier!

I also like how Hillary is elected in the same fashion Bill was 20 years earlier.

[Jerseyrules]

Yes!  Ronnie breaks the 20% barrier!

I also like how Hillary is elected in the same fashion Bill was 20 years earlier.

Ironic how Paul would've actually helped the party more than Sarah