AZ PrimR: ARG: Santorum might give Romney a run for his money

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Arizona President by ARG on 2012-02-14

Summary:

Romney:	38%
Santorum:	31%
Gingrich:	15%
Paul:	11%
Other:	0%
Undecided:	5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Romney leads Santorum 37% to 32% among likely Republican primary voters saying they will definitely or probably vote in the February 28 primary.



Romney leads Gingrich 61% to 17% among the 4% of Republican primary voters saying they have already voted.

[Tender Branson]

4% of 600 have already voted = 24 people

MoE = +/- 30% ?

[King]

4% of 600 have already voted = 24 people

MoE = +/- 30% ?

Meaningless unless Romney wins by less than 4%.

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

4% of 600 have already voted = 24 people

MoE = +/- 30% ?

Huh?

[Likely Voter]

Well Santorum isn't spending time or money in AZ so it appears he is ceding it to Romney, at least for now. It is high risk for him to play there as it is WTA

[Grad Students are the Worst]

4% of 600 have already voted = 24 people

MoE = +/- 30% ?

Huh?

Only 4% of respondents indicate that they've early voted.  4% of 600 people is about 24 people.  A sample size of n=24 has a giant MoE (although closer to +/-20%)

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

4% of 600 have already voted = 24 people

MoE = +/- 30% ?

Huh?

Only 4% of respondents indicate that they've early voted.  4% of 600 people is about 24 people.  A sample size of n=24 has a giant MoE (although closer to +/-20%)

I get that, but what's his point?

[Grad Students are the Worst]

4% of 600 have already voted = 24 people

MoE = +/- 30% ?

Huh?

Only 4% of respondents indicate that they've early voted.  4% of 600 people is about 24 people.  A sample size of n=24 has a giant MoE (although closer to +/-20%)

I get that, but what's his point?

I assume his point is that it's essentially super-useless information.

[Jayhawker]

Surprised Santorum seems to be ceding Arizona, but I'll take it.

[Senator Sbane]

Surprised Santorum seems to be ceding Arizona, but I'll take it.

Lots of Mormons and anti-immigrant types who don't care much about social issues (not to say they are social liberals or anything). It's not good territory for Santorum plus it's WTA. The Republican party made sure everything was favorable for Romney..... how many states in the south or midwest are WTA?

[Mr. Morden]

It's not good territory for Santorum plus it's WTA. The Republican party made sure everything was favorable for Romney..... how many states in the south or midwest are WTA?

Only a handful of states and territories are statewide WTA.  Here they are:

FL, AZ, PR, DC, DE, NJ & UT (228 total delegates)

Everything else is either WTA by congressional district, proportional representation, or some kind of hybrid, with the hybrid category being the most common.

[Senator Sbane]

Which ones are proportional?

[Landslide Lyndon]

I thought Virginia is also WTA.

[realisticidealist]

I thought Virginia is also WTA.

VA is a hybrid with WTA by CD.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

If Santorum isn't leading Romney here now, I doubt he ever will. Santorum's people were probably correct in writing this one off.

[Mr. Morden]

Which ones are proportional?

It really depends on what you consider "proportional", as the exact rules vary a lot from state to state.  It's true though that in the South, there are more states that are closer to being proportional than the rest of the country.  Texas, for example, is proportional by the statewide vote, but with a minimum threshold of 20%.  So if you get 19%, then you get nothing.

Many of the states are "conditional WTA", which means that it's proportional as long as no one wins more than 50% of the vote, but if the winner breaks 50%, then it becomes WTA.  Anyway, here's a table that tries to summarize things:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2011/12/republican-delegate-allocation-rules.html

[King]

Santorum can win this state on the 22nd without spending a dime.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If Gingrich is smart he should spend all his time and money in Arizona.
With Romney and Santorum duking it out in Michigan, he might be able to pull a surprise that will revive his campaign.

[Likely Voter]

If Gingrich is smart he should spend all his time and money in Arizona.
With Romney and Santorum duking it out in Michigan, he might be able to pull a surprise that will revive his campaign.

Romney is already spending money in AZ and would spend more if they were challenged. Plus Romney is spending money in GA (as is Santorum) and if Gingrich has any chance, he has to win his home state so they have to spend their few remaining $ on GA (he is also looking at OH as their one non GA Super Tuesday state). Of course if Sheldon Adelson gives Gingrich's SuperPAC $10M, maybe they will start to spread it around more.