Police Commisioner Elections : November 2012

[Andrew1]

Looking like the Independent will get about 35% of 1st prefs. in Avon & Somerset. Not clear who will be in the no. 2 spot, but Independent very likely to win on 2nd prefs.

[Andrew1]

Independents win Gwent and Dorset

[You kip if you want to...]

Cameron's response to the low turnout is beyond a joke. Just watching him on the BBC.

Omnishambles.

[Silent Hunter]

Cameron's response to the low turnout is beyond a joke. Just watching him on the BBC.

Omnishambles.

That's now in the OED, BTW.

[Serenity Now]

Sussex results are reported by Local Authority (via the Brighton & Hove City Council website). Does anyone know of any others doing so? If so I can make a map..

[Pilchard]

Cambridgeshire 1st preferences - Sir Graham Bright and Ed Murphy go through to second round (as well as my second preference vote). All 7 candidates held their deposit.

Con 23731 (25.9%)
Lab 17576 (19.2%)
UKIP 14504 (15.8%)
Ind (Ali) 12706 (13.9%)
Lib Dem 7530 (8.2%)
Eng Dem 7219 (7.9%)
Ind (Mohammed) 5337 (5.8%)
Rejected 2892 (3.2%)

By district:
Cambridge: L 31.6% - LD 17.9% - C 16.9% - Ali 12.9% - UKIP 8.1% - ED 4.4% - Mohammed 3.7% - Rejected 4.6%
Peterborough: L 22.5% - C 20.9% - Ali 16.0% - Mohammed 12.3% - UKIP 11.9% - ED 9.9% - LD 3.2% - Rejected 2.3%
East Cambs: C 32.3% - UKIP 17.2% - L 13.6% - Ali 12.6% - LD 10.6% - ED 7.2% - Mohammed 3.3% - Rejected 3.1%
South Cambs: C 29.4% - L 16.3% - UKIP 15.2% - Ali 14.1% - LD 11.0% - ED 6.3% - Mohammed 3.7% - Rejected 4.0%
Hunts: C 29.9% - UKIP 22.7% - Ali 15.1% - L 12.5% - ED 7.1% - LD 5.9% - Mohammed 3.8% - Rejected 2.9%
Fenland: C 30.6% - UKIP 22.2% - L 17.0% - ED 12.7% - Ali 8.2% - LD 4.1% - Mohammed 3.2% - Rejected 2.0%

Turnout: 15.25% (Pboro 17.45%, SCambs 15.9%, Hunts 15.31%, Cbridge 14.69%, Fenland 12.98%, ECambs 12.93%)

[You kip if you want to...]

Prescott's lost to the Tory.

[freefair]

North Wales Independent beats Labour candidiate, wins- Reveals himself to be card carrying LibDem!!

[joevsimp]

Cambridgeshire 1st preferences - Sir Graham Bright and Ed Murphy go through to second round (as well as my second preference vote). All 7 candidates held their deposit.
<snip>

was there not supposed to be a Raving Loony?

[Pilchard]

Cambridgeshire 1st preferences - Sir Graham Bright and Ed Murphy go through to second round (as well as my second preference vote). All 7 candidates held their deposit.
<snip>

was there not supposed to be a Raving Loony?

Lord Toby Jug was mentioned as a candidate early on but didn't run in the end, not sure why. Maybe the deposit was just too much and they wanted to concentrate on the Manchester by-election.

After 2nd preferences - Sir Graham Bright (Con) 31640, Ed Murphy (Lab) 25114. Rather underwhelming win for the Tories I think.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Perhaps they realised that there was no point in running anyone as the elections were likely to be a big enough joke in their own right?

[Pilchard]

Perhaps they realised that there was no point in running anyone as the elections were likely to be a big enough joke in their own right?

this sounds likely too - from Lord Toby Jug's twitter:

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[Filuwaúrdjan]

He makes a valuable point. I only voted because the polling station is literally on the other side of the street from my flat.

[Peter]

Has been something of a farce hasn't it. My Oxfordshire village polling station (electorate 1895) had a pretty low turnout: At 8:45 last night, I was given ballot #78. Naturally I was the only one present. I spent some time with the polling staff chatting and we worked out that it had cost about £3 per vote to run the polling station (just in their wages)

[YL]

Results (Devon & Cornwall now in).  Turnout embarrassingly low of course.

Northumbria - Labour
Durham - Labour
Cleveland - Labour
Cumbria - Tory
Lancashire - Labour
Merseyside - Labour
Greater Manchester - Labour
North Yorkshire - Tory
Humberside - Tory; Prescott lost.
West Yorkshire - Labour
South Yorkshire - Labour
Derbyshire - Labour
Nottinghamshire - Labour (ex MP Paddy Tipping)
Lincolnshire - Independent
Leicestershire - Tory
Cheshire - Tory
Staffordshire - Tory
West Midlands - Labour
West Mercia - Independent
Warwickshire - Independent
Northamptonshire - Tory
Norfolk - Independent
Suffolk - Tory
Cambridgeshire - Tory
Essex - Tory
Bedfordshire - Labour
Hertfordshire - Tory
Thames Valley - Tory
Gloucestershire - Independent
Avon & Somerset - Independent
Devon & Cornwall - Tory
Wiltshire - Tory
Dorset - Independent
Hampshire - Independent; Michael Mates lost.
Surrey - Zero Tolerance
Sussex - Tory
Kent - Independent

South Wales - Labour
Gwent - Independent
Dyfed-Powys - Tory
North Wales - Independent

[Peter]

Sussex results are reported by Local Authority (via the Brighton & Hove City Council website). Does anyone know of any others doing so? If so I can make a map..

http://www.aylesburyvaledc.gov.uk/democracy/election/2 for Thames Valley

[Silent Hunter]

He makes a valuable point. I only voted because the polling station is literally on the other side of the street from my flat.

I had no vote at all - the Metropolitan Police District isn't getting an elected PCC.

[YL]

Highest turnout seems to have been Northamptonshire (for obvious reasons) with 20%, followed by Humberside (perhaps Tories turned out to vote against Prescott?).  Lowest seems to have been Staffordshire with 11.6%.

(Based on BBC figures)

[Harry Hayfield]

Sussex results are reported by Local Authority (via the Brighton & Hove City Council website). Does anyone know of any others doing so? If so I can make a map..

I'm gathering that data as we speak (currently up to 84 out of 315). When I have all 315 I shall be more than happy to send it to you.

[afleitch]

So basically independents and Tories win in Tory areas and Labour win in Labour areas with Humberside ('it lives'!) and Dyfed/Powys being curious.

[YL]

So basically independents and Tories win in Tory areas and Labour win in Labour areas with Humberside ('it lives'!) and Dyfed/Powys being curious.

The East Riding unitary is very Tory, and turnout there was high not quite as ridiculously low as in most other places.  As I said I suspect Labour's choice of candidate may have motivated Tories more than their own supporters there.  (And the area voted Tory in 2010.)

Dyfed/Powys was actually Lib Dem based on 2010 results IIRC, but they didn't stand.  I don't find that result particularly surprising given it was Lab v Con.

As well as H*mb*rs*d*, Cumbria and Staffordshire look a bit disappointing for Labour, but Bedfordshire was good for them.

Apparently the winning Independent in North Wales is a Lib Dem member.  I fear some of the other Independents will turn out to be crazy, having managed to get elected on the votes of people who think that voting for an Independent is a good way of expressing the view that the police shouldn't be politicised.

[YL]

Here's SV in action in Devon & Cornwall.

First round:
Con 55,527
Ind G 24,719
Lab 24,196
LD 23,948
UKIP 16,433
Ind J 12,382
Ind Mo 10,586
Ind S 10,171
Ind C 8,667
Ind Mc 4,306

So at this point everybody but Greenslade and the Tory gets eliminated, and the second preferences of anybody who didn't have one of those in the top two are ignored.

Second round:
Con 69,419
Ind G 37,243

I make that 44% of votes (of those which counted in the first round) not counting in the second round.

[Andrea]

Dyfed/Powys was always going to be curious given the high LD/Plaid base there's there.

Cheshire can be added to Cumbria, Humberside and Staffs as a Labour hope ended up Tory.  
Differential turnout may have killed them (Tory areas always have an higher turnout and Tory voters could be more interested in law and order policies). The opposite is true about Bedfordshire where Luton had an higher turnout that Central Midbedfordshire.
Among the notionally Tory areas based on 2010 GE, Labour also picked up Lancashire.

Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire look pretty good for Labour.

How many lost deposists? Just a couple in Cornwall and Devon?

The former MPs elected are Jane Kennedy (Merseyside), Vera Baird (Northumbria), Paddy Tipping (Nottinghamshire), Sir Graham Brigh (Cambridgeshire) and obviously Tony Lloyd and Alun Michael.

After seeing the first results from Wales, I thought Alun Michael may have been in danger too. All political careers end up in failure but there's a limit even for this motto!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Unfortunately the demographics of the Powys part of Dyfed-Powys are not what they were in the 1960s, so a Labour win (even in a mid-term situation) was never all that likely.

Apparently the winning Independent in North Wales is a Lib Dem member.  I fear some of the other Independents will turn out to be crazy, having managed to get elected on the votes of people who think that voting for an Independent is a good way of expressing the view that the police shouldn't be politicised.

The guy that won in Slurry looks like a good candidate for the nutter award. Anyways, Roddick should resign his party membership, like, yesterday. Given that this is a post that most people don't care about, that should probably be enough to avoid serious problems.

[You kip if you want to...]

Smithson speculating on how much the Tories can blame losing Bedfordshire on Dorries' recent antics.